FairwayJay’s 2021 NFL Underdog Picks Finish 28-12 ATS For 70% Winners
Weekly winners from FairwayJay gave bettors huge profits throughout the 2021 NFL season
The headline from The Betting Scene at Off Shore Gaming Association tells the story of our special season and 2021 NFL underdog picks. Following a 3-0 finish in Week 18 that included a thrilling finish on Sunday Night Football (Forbes), we finished the season with another outright winner on the biggest bet game of the week with the Raiders over the Chargers 35-32 in overtime.
Fairway’s Football Forecast finished the 2021 NFL underdog picks 28-12 ATS (70.0%) with 21 outright underdog winners.
You can read more at OSGA along with the weekly picks and profit breakdown below.
Thanks for support. #NFL underdog picks 28-12 ATS with 21 outright winners this season. https://t.co/WhsqVMI53N
— Fairway Jay (@FairwayJay) January 13, 2022
2021 NFL Underdog Picks
Bold = outright underdog winners. Click the highlighted link in each NFL week for the weekly documented picks, analysis and additional information you can bet on.
| NFL Week | Game | Picks | Won/Lost | Moneyline | Record (ATS) |
| 1 | Cleveland at Kansas City | Browns +6 | Won | 1–0 | |
| LA Chargers at Washington | WFT PK | Lost | 1–1 | ||
| Baltimore at Las Vegas | Raiders +4.5 | Won | +175 | 2–1 | |
| 2 | Dallas at LA Chargers | Cowboys +3.5 | Won | +160 | 3–1 |
| Kansas City at Baltimore | Ravens +3.5 | Won | +170 | 4–1 | |
| New Orleans at Carolina | Panthers +3.5 | Won | +160 | 5–1 | |
| 3 | Seattle at Minnesota | Vikings +2 | Won | +110 | 6–1 |
| 4 | Baltimore at Denver | Broncos +1 | Lost | 6–2 | |
| NY Giants at New Orleans | Giants +7.5 | Won | +275 | 7–2 | |
| Tampa Bay at New England | Patriots +7 | Won | 8–2 | ||
| 5 | New Orleans at Washington | WFT +2.5 | Lost | 8–3 | |
| Buffalo at Kansas City | Bills +3 | Won | +125 | 9–3 | |
| 6 | Jacksonville vs Miami (Lon) | Jaguars +3 | Won | +130 | 10–3 |
| 7 | Cincinnati at Baltimore | Bengals +6.5 | Won | +230 | 11–3 |
| NY Jets at New England | Jets +7 | Lost | 11–4 | ||
| New Orleans at Seattle | Seahawks +5 | Won | 12–4 | ||
| 8 | Philadelphia at Detroit | Lions +3.5 | Lost | 12–5 | |
| 9 | Minnesota at Baltimore | Vikings +6 | Won | 13-5 | |
| Cleveland at Cincinnati | Browns +3 | Won | +125 | 14-5 | |
| 10 | Cleveland at New England | Browns +2.5 | Lost | 14-6 | |
| Minnesota at LA Chargers | Vikings +3 | Won | +145 | 15-6 | |
| Philaelphia at Denver | Eagles +3 | Won | +125 | 16-6 | |
| 11 | Miami at NY Jets | Jets +3.5 | Lost | 16-7 | |
| Washington at Carolina | WFT +3.5 | Won | +150 | 17-7 | |
| Houston at Tennessee | Texans +10 | Won | +380 | 18-7 | |
| Green Bay at Minnesota | Vikings +2 | Won | +105 | 19-7 | |
| Dallas at Kansas City | Cowboys +3.5 | Lost | 19-8 | ||
| 12 | Chicago at Detroit | Lions +3.5 | Won | 20-8 | |
| Seattle at Washington | WFT PK | Won | -105 | 21-8 | |
| 13 | None | ||||
| 14 | New Orleans at NY Jets | Jets +5.5 | Lost | 21-9 | |
| Seattle at Houston | Texans +8.5 | Lost | 21-10 | ||
| 15 | Kansas City at LA Chargers | Chargers +3 | Lost | 21-11 | |
| Arizona at Detroit | Lions +13.5 | Won | +550 | 22-11 | |
| 16 | Detroit at Atlanta | Lions +6 | Won | 23-11 | |
| Buffalo at New England | Bills +2.5 | Won | +120 | 24-11 | |
| Washington at Dallas | WFT +10.5 | Lost | 24-12 | ||
| 17 | Kansas City at Cincinnati | Bengals +5.5 | Won | +190 | 25-12 |
| 18 | Kansas City at Denver | Broncos +11.5 | Won | 26-12 | |
| New England at Miami | Dolphins +6 | Won | +230 | 27-12 | |
| LA Chargers at Las Vegas | Raiders +3 | Won | +135 | 28-12 |
Here is the betting breakdown and profit calculation if you bet $220 to win $200 on every underdog ATS noted above.
$200 x 28 wins = $5,600
$220 x 12 losses = $2,640
2021 season profit = $2,960 (+14.8 units at 1 unit per game)
Return on Investment (ROI) = 37.0%
2021 season profit betting at reduced juice sportsbooks using -107 vig = $3,032
Betting an additional 25% of straight bets or $50 on every moneyline offered and selected.
$50 x 21 wins = $1,945
$50 x 19 losses = $950
2021 season ML profit = $995
Total profit betting $220 on every underdog pick ATS (-110) and $50 on every pick on the moneyline = $3,955
Dime bettors betting $1,100 on every selection ATS won a net profit of $14,800.
It was a special season indeed picking NFL winners with exclusively underdogs to point out potential value and how to earn more betting on the moneyline along with the point spread.
My past history as an NFL point spread prognosticator includes 8 straight winning seasons and a 57.3% ATS mark on nearly 650 plays when I sold selections as a top of the leaderboard sports handicapper. Despite requests to continue and join other advisory services, I no longer tout or sell selections to the benefit of others. Instead, I contribute to other companies and media outlets as a compensated sports betting analyst and expert, and have continued to provide free picks. That’s resulted in solid NFL results the past five seasons posting underdog picks each week at OSGA and updating here at Vegas Sports Zone.
Following a 28-12 ATS (70%) record in the 2021 NFL season, the most recent 5-year record picking only NFL underdogs is now 130-91 ATS (58.8%) with 68 outright winners.
Thank you for your support and chip-ins as I continue to provide information you can bet on. I look forward to providing more Fairway Football Forecasts in the seasons ahead and hope you profit from the experience.
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