FairwayJay’s 2021 NFL Underdog Picks Finish 28-12 ATS For 70% Winners

Weekly winners from FairwayJay gave bettors huge profits throughout the 2021 NFL season

The headline from The Betting Scene at Off Shore Gaming Association tells the story of our special season and 2021 NFL underdog picks. Following a 3-0 finish in Week 18 that included a thrilling finish on Sunday Night Football (Forbes), we finished the season with another outright winner on the biggest bet game of the week with the Raiders over the Chargers 35-32 in overtime.

Fairway’s Football Forecast finished the 2021 NFL underdog picks 28-12 ATS (70.0%) with 21 outright underdog winners.

You can read more at OSGA along with the weekly picks and profit breakdown below.

2021 NFL Underdog Picks

Bold = outright underdog winners. Click the highlighted link in each NFL week for the weekly documented picks, analysis and additional information you can bet on.

NFL Week Game Picks Won/Lost Moneyline Record (ATS)
1 Cleveland at Kansas City Browns +6 Won 1–0
LA Chargers at Washington WFT PK Lost 1–1
Baltimore at Las Vegas Raiders +4.5 Won +175 2–1
2 Dallas at LA Chargers Cowboys +3.5 Won +160 3–1
Kansas City at Baltimore Ravens +3.5 Won +170 4–1
New Orleans at Carolina Panthers +3.5 Won +160 5–1
3 Seattle at Minnesota Vikings +2 Won +110 6–1
4 Baltimore at Denver Broncos +1 Lost 6–2
NY Giants at New Orleans Giants +7.5 Won +275 7–2
Tampa Bay at New England Patriots +7 Won 8–2
5 New Orleans at Washington WFT +2.5 Lost 8–3
Buffalo at Kansas City Bills +3 Won +125 9–3
6 Jacksonville vs Miami (Lon) Jaguars +3 Won +130 10–3
7 Cincinnati at Baltimore Bengals +6.5 Won +230 11–3
NY Jets at New England Jets +7 Lost 11–4
New Orleans at Seattle Seahawks +5 Won 12–4
8 Philadelphia at Detroit Lions +3.5 Lost 12–5
9 Minnesota at Baltimore Vikings +6 Won 13-5
Cleveland at Cincinnati Browns +3 Won +125 14-5
10 Cleveland at New England Browns +2.5 Lost 14-6
Minnesota at LA Chargers Vikings +3 Won +145 15-6
Philaelphia at Denver Eagles +3 Won +125 16-6
11 Miami at NY Jets Jets +3.5 Lost 16-7
Washington at Carolina WFT +3.5 Won +150 17-7
Houston at Tennessee Texans +10 Won +380 18-7
Green Bay at Minnesota Vikings +2 Won +105 19-7
Dallas at Kansas City Cowboys +3.5 Lost 19-8
12 Chicago at Detroit Lions +3.5 Won 20-8
Seattle at Washington WFT PK Won -105 21-8
13 None
14 New Orleans at NY Jets Jets +5.5 Lost 21-9
Seattle at Houston Texans +8.5 Lost 21-10
15 Kansas City at LA Chargers Chargers +3 Lost 21-11
Arizona at Detroit Lions +13.5 Won +550 22-11
16 Detroit at Atlanta Lions +6 Won 23-11
Buffalo at New England Bills  +2.5 Won +120 24-11
Washington at Dallas WFT +10.5 Lost 24-12
17 Kansas City at Cincinnati Bengals +5.5 Won +190 25-12
18 Kansas City at Denver Broncos +11.5 Won 26-12
New England at Miami Dolphins +6 Won +230 27-12
LA Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders +3 Won +135 28-12

 

 

Here is the betting breakdown and profit calculation if you bet $220 to win $200 on every underdog ATS noted above.

$200 x 28 wins = $5,600
$220 x 12 losses = $2,640
2021 season profit = $2,960 (+14.8 units at 1 unit per game)
Return on Investment (ROI) = 37.0%
2021 season profit betting at reduced juice sportsbooks using -107 vig = $3,032

Betting an additional 25% of straight bets or $50 on every moneyline offered and selected.

$50 x 21 wins = $1,945
$50 x 19 losses = $950
2021 season ML profit = $995

Total profit betting $220 on every underdog pick ATS (-110) and $50 on every pick on the moneyline = $3,955 

Dime bettors betting $1,100 on every selection ATS won a net profit of $14,800.

2021 NFL Season picks

It was a special season indeed picking NFL winners with exclusively underdogs to point out potential value and how to earn more betting on the moneyline along with the point spread.

2021 NFL Season PicksMy past history as an NFL point spread prognosticator includes 8 straight winning seasons and a 57.3% ATS mark on nearly 650 plays when I sold selections as a top of the leaderboard sports handicapper. Despite requests to continue and join other advisory services, I no longer tout or sell selections to the benefit of others. Instead, I contribute to other companies and media outlets as a compensated sports betting analyst and expert, and have continued to provide free picks. That’s resulted in solid NFL results the past five seasons posting underdog picks each week at OSGA and updating here at Vegas Sports Zone.

Following a 28-12 ATS (70%) record in the 2021 NFL season, the most recent 5-year record picking only NFL underdogs is now 128-91 ATS (58.4%) with 68 outright winners.

Thank you for your support and chip-ins as I continue to provide information you can bet on. I look forward to providing more Fairway Football Forecasts in the seasons ahead and hope you profit from the experience.

Author: FairwayJay is a leading national sports betting analyst, writer, handicapper and sports betting insider providing insight and information you can bet on for nearly two decades from Las Vegas. He chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events for leading media and sports betting sites and companies. Follow him on Twitter: @FairwayJay