Fairway’s Football Forecast – NFL Week 6 Underdog Picks And Preview

We kick off NFL Week 6 underdog picks still without a losing week in 2022 NFL point spread prognosis. Last week’s one play and push on the Browns (+2) in a 30-28 loss to the Chargers was unfortunate on a number of fronts. Late release and post, as I had bet Browns +2.5 and they were still +2.5 on Friday but I didn’t get posted picks out early. I also teased the Browns to the Vikings, but also lost on the moneyline as Cleveland missed a 54-yard field goal on the last play of the game. But bonehead QB Brissett had tossed an INT 3 minutes earlier inside the Chargers 10 yard line. Add in 2-3 terrible, undisciplined penalties, and the Browns blew it.

See my Week 5 analysis posted on the game at OSGA, where I indicated “Only turnovers, unexpected/stupid penalties or very poor play from QB Jacoby Brissett can hijack this projected winner.”  Also, the Browns rushed for 213 yards on 31 carries – both very positive ATS profiles for winning in the NFL.

Teams that outrush their opponent by at least 30 yards in a game are 39-13-1 SU and 37-13-3 ATS (74%) this season – right at the historical average which I have tracked for nearly two decades. Also, teams that run the ball at least 30 times in a game (when their opponent does not), are 39-11-1 SU and 38-11-2 ATS (77%) this season.

I bet the Browns (-2.5) again this week at home against New England with Patriots ranking 28th in the NFL in defending the run, per Football Outsiders’ DVOA rankings.

NFL Week 6 Odds

I’ll update more betting data from sportsbooks on Sunday. Here are consensus betting lines (favorites) as of Saturday at leading online sportsbooks.

  • Tampa Bay (-10) at Pittsburgh
  • Cincinnati (-2.5) at New Orleans
  • Jacksonville at Indianapolis (-1.5)
  • New England at Cleveland (-2.5)
  • NY Jets at Green Bay (-7.5)
  • Baltimore (-5.5) at NY Giants
  • Minnesota (-3) at Miami
  • San Francisco (-4.5) at Atlanta
  • Carolina at LA Rams (-10)
  • Arizona (-2.5) at Seattle
  • Buffalo (-2.5) at Kansas City
  • Dallas at Philadelphia (-6.5)
  • Denver at LA Chargers (-4.5)

Sunday update and betting data.

NFL Week 6 Underdog Picks

2022 NFL Underdog Picks Results

So we remain 14-7 ATS on NFL underdog picks this season with 13 outright winners. Four straight winning weeks followed by last week’s push has the 5+ year record posting picks on these pages 144-98 ATS (59.5%) with 81 outright winners. Recall last season we had a record breaking 28-12 ATS 70% season on our underdog only picks.

  • Week 5 (0-0-1)
  • Week 4 (2-1 ATS) with 2 outright underdog winners
  • Week 3 (6-2 ATS) with 6 outright underdog winners
  • Week 2 ( 2-1 ATS) with 2 outright underdog winners
  • Week 1 (4-3 ATS) with 3 outright underdog winners.

Week 1 included 10 road favorites, and more again in Week 3 when we had another huge card and release.

NFL Week 6 Underdog Picks

Review NFL Week 6 underdog picks and full game analysis at Offshore Gaming Association, where I initially post picks and added NFL betting insight. Be sure to monitor the betting lines and NFL Week 6 njury report ahead of the Sunday and Monday games.

Update: On Saturday, both Colts running backs were ruled out with injury, including last year’s leading rusher Jonathan Taylor. The line has since dipped to Colts -1.5.

Jacksonville (+2.5) at Indianapolis – Jaguars moneyline +120
(+2.5) vs Arizona – Seahawks moneyline +125

I’ve been asked about my contest entries. I did not enter either the Circa or SuperContest NFL handicapping contests this year. After past NFL Super Contest success and 60% ATS contest results in B2B years with top 6% finish and not making the money, I determined the odds are not favorable for a return. However, I’m still alive in a few smaller contests including survivor. I’m also leading on online contest with more than 50 entries picking 14 games ATS each week, select college games and all NFL – sides only. I have 42 winners out of 70 picks (60% ATS) through 5 weeks of NFL/CFB. I’ve even missed getting my college picks in on time, so had to go all NFL a few weeks. Top 3 places paid each week and year end. I won Week 1 going 11-3 ATS and have a runner-up in another week.

Author: FairwayJay is a leading national sports betting analyst, writer, handicapper and sports betting insider providing insight and information you can bet on for nearly two decades from Las Vegas. He chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events for leading media and sports betting sites and companies. Follow him on X (Twitter): @FairwayJay