Fairway’s Football Forecast – NFL 2022 Week 3 Underdog Picks And Preview

Delayed getting the NFL 2022 Week 3 underdog picks and preview up this week. To view the picks and analysis initially each week, along with other NFL update and stats I provide, see article at Offshore Gaming Association. The Week 3 picks are provided, and I added other NFL coverage at Forbes and TheLines.

This week’s huge card of eight (8) underdog picks are below. I’ve also included some Week 3 game previews with links below to TheLines. Included are odds, stats, insight and match-ups to watch.

• Buffalo at Miami
• New Orleans at Carolina
• Las Vegas at Tennessee

Added Week 3 insight in my coverage for Forbes, including Bills-Dolphins and Chiefs-Colts. Respected handicapper Bob Stoll of Dr. Bob Sports sent along additional stats, insight and ATS info for select games including Bills-Dolphins, so read and review the other sites and articles.

ATS Tip: Teams that have scored 31 points or more and allowed less than 13 points in consecutive games, as the Bills have, are just 19-55 ATS since 1980.

NFL Week 3 Odds and Betting Data

NFL Week 3 splits 👀 pic.twitter.com/sw1f037LQR

— Caesars Sportsbook & Casino (@CaesarsSports) September 25, 2022

Be sure to check the NFL injury reports and monitor the betting lines as a number of teams have suffered key injuries. The lines have adjusted from early week, and while we miss some of the better numbers posting late week, know that we still post the picks and you can determine your wagering strategy if you decide to reduce wagers.

I used the Dolphins, Panthers and Colts in a NFL Survivor pool in Las Vegas which is ATS picks, and got better numbers on Miami and Indianapolis.

NFL Week 3 Underdog Picks

Miami (+5) vs Buffalo – Dolphins Moneyline +185
NY Jets (+6) vs Cincinnati – Jets Moneyline +215
Carolina (+2.5) vs New Orleans – Panthers Moneyline +120
Indianapolis (+6) vs Kansas City – Colts Moneyline +210
Washington (+6.5) vs Philadelphia – Commanders Moneyline +235
Green Bay (+1) at Tampa Bay – Packers Moneyline +100
Denver (+1.5) vs San Francisco – Broncos Moneyline +105
Dallas (+1.5) at NY Giants – Cowboys Moneyline +100 (Monday)

See OSGA for Week 3 game analysis and ATS info, which is limited with time constraints and added plays this week.

After winning both Week 1 and Week 2, the 2022 NFL record is 6-4 ATS with five outright winners. That follows last season sensational 70% ATS season (28-12 ATS), and now 136-95 ATS (58.9%) with 73 outright underdog winners posting weekly NFL underdog picks only the past 5+ years. The NFL record was equally as strong over 8 straight winning seasons from 2003-2010 with all plays independently documented when I was selling picks (no longer) as a professional handicapper and talking sports and betting daily on Las Vegas and national radio.

Here are the NFL Week 3 betting favorites generating the most spread bets and money, as of Friday at DraftKings Sportsbook. Clearly, we’re against a majority of the public’s most bet plays with our Week 3 underdog picks.

1. KC -5.5, 93% of bets and handle
2. BAL -3, 90% of bets and 92% of handle
3. PHI -6.5, 86% of bets and 79% of handle
4. BUF -5, 86% of bets and 80% of handle
5. CIN -6, 86% of bets and 74% of handle

Also, BetMGM are also most heavy on the Chiefs, Bills and Bengals, while Caesars was as well on Friday but have since taken more money on the Falcons, 49ers and the Raiders and Chiefs. FanDuel Sportsbook reports the most spread money on the Ravens, Chiefs, Bengals, Bills and Raiders with all taking at least 80% of the point spread money (handle).

Updated notes from my game previews at TheLines.

Saints at Panthers – Final thoughts:

Both of these offenses are below average with each teams’ strength on defense. If you bet on the Saints, you want to monitor the injuries, specifically to QB Jameis Winston and RB Alvin Kamara. Sharp bettors are taking a position on the Panthers at +3, as did I.

Regardless, this division match-up does not project to have much offensive efficiency or yards (I bet under). Scoring is likely limited, and bettors should grab under 41 as available with the total trending downward and more than 75% of the over/under money at FanDuel betting on less scoring.

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