Fairway’s Football Forecast – NFL Week 6 Underdog Picks And Preview

We kick off NFL Week 6 underdog picks still without a losing week in 2022 NFL point spread prognosis. Last week’s one play and push on the Browns (+2) in a 30-28 loss to the Chargers was unfortunate on a number of fronts. Late release and post, as I had bet Browns +2.5 and they were still +2.5 on Friday but I didn’t get posted picks out early. I also teased the Browns to the Vikings, but also lost on the moneyline as Cleveland missed a 54-yard field goal on the last play of the game. But bonehead QB Brissett had tossed an INT 3 minutes earlier inside the Chargers 10 yard line. Add in 2-3 terrible, undisciplined penalties, and the Browns blew it.

See my Week 5 analysis posted on the game at OSGA, where I indicated “Only turnovers, unexpected/stupid penalties or very poor play from QB Jacoby Brissett can hijack this projected winner.”  Also, the Browns rushed for 213 yards on 31 carries – both very positive ATS profiles for winning in the NFL.

Teams that outrush their opponent by at least 30 yards in a game are 39-13-1 SU and 37-13-3 ATS (74%) this season – right at the historical average which I have tracked for nearly two decades. Also, teams that run the ball at least 30 times in a game (when their opponent does not), are 39-11-1 SU and 38-11-2 ATS (77%) this season.

I bet the Browns (-2.5) again this week at home against New England with Patriots ranking 28th in the NFL in defending the run, per Football Outsiders’ DVOA rankings.

NFL Week 6 Odds

I’ll update more betting data from sportsbooks on Sunday. Here are consensus betting lines (favorites) as of Saturday at leading online sportsbooks.

• Tampa Bay (-10) at Pittsburgh
• Cincinnati (-2.5) at New Orleans
• Jacksonville at Indianapolis (-1.5)
• New England at Cleveland (-2.5)
• NY Jets at Green Bay (-7.5)
• Baltimore (-5.5) at NY Giants
• Minnesota (-3) at Miami
• San Francisco (-4.5) at Atlanta
• Carolina at LA Rams (-10)
• Arizona (-2.5) at Seattle
• Buffalo (-2.5) at Kansas City
• Dallas at Philadelphia (-6.5)
• Denver at LA Chargers (-4.5)

Sunday update and betting data.

NFL Week 6 splits ⤵️ pic.twitter.com/h7r4OSqG8r

— Caesars Sportsbook & Casino (@CaesarsSports) October 16, 2022

2022 NFL Underdog Picks Results

So we remain 14-7 ATS on NFL underdog picks this season with 13 outright winners. Four straight winning weeks followed by last week’s push has the 5+ year record posting picks on these pages 144-98 ATS (59.5%) with 81 outright winners. Recall last season we had a record breaking 28-12 ATS 70% season on our underdog only picks.

• Week 5 (0-0-1)
• Week 4 (2-1 ATS) with 2 outright underdog winners
• Week 3 (6-2 ATS) with 6 outright underdog winners
• Week 2 ( 2-1 ATS) with 2 outright underdog winners
• Week 1 (4-3 ATS) with 3 outright underdog winners.

Week 1 included 10 road favorites, and more again in Week 3 when we had another huge card and release.

NFL Week 6 Underdog Picks

Review NFL Week 6 underdog picks and full game analysis at Offshore Gaming Association, where I initially post picks and added NFL betting insight. Be sure to monitor the betting lines and NFL Week 6 njury report ahead of the Sunday and Monday games.

Update: On Saturday, both Colts running backs were ruled out with injury, including last year’s leading rusher Jonathan Taylor. The line has since dipped to Colts -1.5.

Jacksonville (+2.5) at Indianapolis – Jaguars moneyline +120
Seattle (+2.5) vs Arizona – Seahawks moneyline +125

I’ve been asked about my contest entries. I did not enter either the Circa or SuperContest NFL handicapping contests this year. After past NFL Super Contest success and 60% ATS contest results in B2B years with top 6% finish and not making the money, I determined the odds are not favorable for a return. However, I’m still alive in a few smaller contests including survivor. I’m also leading on online contest with more than 50 entries picking 14 games ATS each week, select college games and all NFL – sides only. I have 42 winners out of 70 picks (60% ATS) through 5 weeks of NFL/CFB. I’ve even missed getting my college picks in on time, so had to go all NFL a few weeks. Top 3 places paid each week and year end. I won Week 1 going 11-3 ATS and have a runner-up in another week.