Fairway’s Football Forecast – NFL Week 4 Underdog Picks And Preview
We kick off NFL Week 4 underdog picks looking to continue our strong start to the 2022 season. In Week 3 we had our biggest card in 5 years posting underdog picks on these pages, which are originally posted at Offshore Gaming Association. A 6-2 ATS week with six outright underdog winners runs the 2022 ‘Dog log to 12-6 ATS with 11 outright underdog winners.
That follows a 70% season going 28-12 ATS posting underdog only picks on these pages in 2021. The 5+ year record posting underdog picks is now 142-97 (59.4%) with 79 outright underdog winners.
After 10 road favorites on the Week 1 card, and 8 more in Week 3, there are just 3 road favorites in Week 4. But the 16 games features 11 games with spread odds of 3-points or less.
NFL Week 4 Odds
https://twitter.com/FDSportsbook/status/1576557614216798208
My labor of love continues for a sixth straight NFL season providing Fairway’s Football Forecast with no tout talk or selling plays through companies, which I have turned down numerous times since producing top of the leaderboard results over a decade ago with 8 straight winning NFL seasons. I accept chip-in donations and other contributions for VIP’s who have been following Fairway’s Forecasts for years.
Be sure to check the NFL injury reports and monitor the betting lines and weather. I bet the Eagles/Jaguars game under the total earlier, and the over/under is down from 47 to 43.5 with NFL weather reporting rain in Philadelphia, along with the upstart Jaguars and Eagles top-tier defenses with both teams allowing less than 310 yards per game and less than 17 points per game.
The NFL Week 4 underdog picks come with full analysis at Offshore Gaming Association.
I also chip-in added details, stats, props and match-up analysis in my Week 4 NFL coverage for TheLines.
NFL Week 4 Underdog Picks
Jacksonville (+6.5) at Philadelphia – Jaguars moneyline +230
Arizona (+1) at Carolina – Cardinals moneyline +100
Kansas City (+1) at Tampa Bay – Chiefs moneyline -105
NFL betting data from FanDuel Sportsbook.
Spread bet and handle leaders
Bets
Vikings (85%), Cowboys, Chiefs, Raiders, Cardinals, Browns, Steelers, Lions (67%).
Money
Raiders (86%), Cowboys, Chiefs, Vikings, Steelers (69%)
Arizona at Carolina
We might regret this with a questionable coach and carefree and careless quarterback who needs better training and study habits. Both the Cardinals and Panthers are 1-2 and each team has scored 62 points with below average yards per play and efficiency. But the Cardinals have the higher upside with QB Kyler Murray, and did you know Arizona is 7-0 SU/ATS as a road ‘Dog during the regular season in their last 7 road games as the puppy? Betting on the ‘Come’ understanding too that the Cardinals have played the Chiefs, Raiders and Rams to start the season – all playoff teams from last season. The Panthers have looked lousy playing the Browns, Giants and Saints – all sub-par teams themselves at this point. The Panthers won last week as one of our six outright ‘Dog winners. I bet ’em early and on the moneyline, but it was not an impressive win despite really never being in doubt. More mistakes by Saints QB Winston and a 3-0 turnover margin favoring the Panthers helped, but Carolina only gained 293 yards – their third straight game under 300 yards offense. Baker Mayfield has completed just 52% of his passes, and he and the Panthers offense hasn’t shown they can take advantage of a weaker defensive secondary like the Cardinals yet. Mayfield ranks No. 29 of 32 starting quarterbacks in QB DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average). The Cardinals have not looked good so far, but last week’s 20-12 loss to the Rams saw Arizona out-gain LA 365-339 and run 81 plays to 46 for the Rams while controlling the ball for 34 minutes. Murray and his minions lacked efficiency, but if Arizona plays their Cards right like they did in the second half comeback to hit the Jackpot in Las Vegas in Week 2, then Arizona will be returning home 2-2 ahead of next week’s big game against the Eagles. Fly Cardinals Fly.
Check back Monday for any additional updates and the Monday Night Football game between the Rams (+1.5) and 49ers.
Follow along and send inquires and messages to [email protected], and also on Twitter @FairwayJay.
Twitter
Facebook