NFL Handicapping – Inside the Numbers Week 2

Handicapping and Analyzing Stats – NFL Inside the Numbers Week 2

Throughout the NFL season, I go inside the numbers and review weekly box scores, stats, game recaps and more after watching many of the NFL games. For over a decade, I have kept a proprietary database of statistical information and utilized relevant rushing numbers, statistical guidelines and situations to better assist me in sports investing and providing point spread winners. This week we’ll go Inside the Numbers Week 2 and provide stats and information you can bet on.

Beating the NFL over the long-term involves an understanding of the match-ups, situations and stats, and how to apply them for success. Good fortune in the turnover column helps too. After all, teams that are +3 or more in the turnover column in a game are a long-term 92% winning ATS situation. Only one games in Week 2 had a 3-or-greater turnover differential and the Atlanta Falcons (3-0) covered the pointspread but incredibly lost the game when Dallas recovered an onside kick in the final two minutes and went on to score the game winning field goal to win a thriller, 40-39.

INSIDE  THE NUMBERS WEEK 2 STATS 

Despite no preseason games in 2020, the scoring has increased to open the season. Week 1 saw 758 points scored in 16 games (47.4 PPG) but Week 2 exploded with 853 points to average 53.3 points per game. Consider that in Week 2 of the 2019 season, the scoring average was among the lowest of the season at 38.6 points per game.

Sportsbooks got buried on moneyline favorites, who went 14-2 SU in Week 2 including 13-1 in Sunday. Just two outright underdog winners and we had one of them with the Las Vegas Raiders 34-24 win Monday night over the Saints in the Raiders home debut in Las Vegas. A 2-2 ATS week on our weekly underdog picks, and the pointspread was still the great equalizer in Week 2, as favorites went 7-9 ATS. For the season through two weeks, favorites are 24-8 SU and 15-16-1 ATS (line moves can impact grading and results) Example, Week 1, the Chargers were a 3.5 point favorite most the week and weeks in advance, but closed -3 and won 16-13.

RUSHING NUMBERS

Teams that outrush their opponent by at least 30 yards in a game went 10-2 SU and ATS in Week 2 and are 16-2 SU and 15-3 ATS this season.

Teams that run the ball at least 30 times in a game went 10-1 SU and 8-3 ATS and are 22-1 SU and 18-4-1 ATS this season. There has been two games when both teams rushed for at least 30 times and those are not part of the record keeping.

Teams than run the ball less than 23 times in a game went 2-7 SU/ATS andd are 2-13 SU/ATS this season.

Teams that rushed for at least 150 yards went 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS and are 15-1 SU and 14-1-1- ATS this season. Browns bettors watched Cleveland dominate the point of attack with a 214-64 yards rushing advantage (35 rushing attempts) and 7.5 to 4.0 yards per play overall on offense. But Bengals rookie QB got the cash for Cincinnati bettors with a late back-door touchdown in a 35-30 Browns win.

OFFENSIVE PRODUCTION AND TURNOVERS

Many strong offensive outputs in Week 2 included:

• The Cowboys with 570 yards offense at 7.0 yards per play in a 40-39 last second win over the Falcons.
• The Bills with 524 yards offense at 8.9 yards per play in a 31-28 non-covering win over the Dolphins.
• The Packers with 488 yards at 7.4 yards per play in a 42-21 win over the Lions.
• The Jaguars (+7′) with 480 yards offense at 6.5 yards per play in a 33-30 loss at Tennesse.
• The Chargers (+8′) with 479 yards at 6.1 yards per play in a 23-20 overtime loss to the Chiefs.
• The Rams with 449 yards at 6.7 yards per play in a 37-19 road win over the Eagles.
• The Browns with 433 yards at 7.5 yards per play in a 35-30 non-covering win over the Bengals.
• The Seahawks (429/7.2) and Patriots (464/6.6) in Seattle’s 35-30 win over New England with a goal line stand on the final play.

Teams that have a 3-or-greater turnover advantage are 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS this season. Teams with exactly a plus-2 turnover advantage are 7-1 SU/ATS this season.

We’ll chip in more stats and box score review throughout the season to provide insight and information you can bet on while looking forward to lookahead lines and odds and analysis for current weeks games. Additional data and articles will assist with ways to use stats when handicapping and projecting player and team performances. This can also help when betting sides, totals, player props, fantasy football, and even survivor contests.