Team Profiles And Stats To Be 2023 NCAA Tournament Champion
Profiles of a National Champion
The Sweet Sixteen tips off and much excitement in Las Vegas hosting it’s first NCAA Tournament game. T-Mobile Arena on the Las Vegas Strip will be rocking as Arkansas battles Connecticut and the featured pairing of UCLA vs Gonzaga follows Thursday night. The UCLA Bruins are one of five remaining teams that fit a proven stats profile using Ken Pom’s offensive and defensive efficiency rankings. I outline the profile of a national champion below along with the Sweet Sixteen odds and match-ups from my updates at Off Shore Gaming Association.
I also evaluate the remaining No. 1 seeds Alabama (+14.1) and Houston (+18.3), who also have the best scoring margin of the remaining teams in the NCAA Tournament.
NCAA Tournament – Updated Bracket, Schedules and Scores
Profile of a National Champion
After winning its first two NCAA Tournament games, Texas is 28-8, Connecticut is 27-8, Princeton is 23-8, Kansas State is 25-9, Xavier is 27-9, Tennessee is 25-10, Creighton is 23-12, Michigan State 21-12 and Arkansas is 22-13.
So 9 of the 16 remaining teams fit a losing profile and trend of a NCAA Tournament winner over the past 25 years. This remaining field is one of the weakest in decades from that standpoint, and leaves Alabama (31-5), Houston (33-3), UCLA (31-5), Gonzaga (30-5), Miami (27-7), San Diego State (29-6), and Florida Atlantic (33-3) as the top teams with 7 or less losses.
Stat Profiles of a National Champion
Also, a stat profile of a NCAA Tournament winner and national champion is that 19 of the last 20 National Champions have finished in the Top 20 in Ken Pom’s offensive and defensive adjusted efficiency rankings.
Teams that fit that profile of top 20 in offensive and defensive efficiency rankings include:
Creighton just misses currently ranking No. 13 on defense and No. 23 on offense.
Put it all together, and your winning profile for top payouts on futures bets looking best to win the NCAA Tournament and become the 2023 national champion are Houston, Alabama or UCLA. Those three teams also rank 1, 2, 3 in NET rankings.
Of course, injuries also impact betting and you need to adjust the profiles and considerations knowing that UCLA is playing without their best defensive player, guard Jaylen Clark. He was injured in the Pac-12 championship game. The Bruins have two other starters questionable vs Gonzaga, but likely to play through injuries last game. Houston’s top player senior guard Marcus Sasser is battling an injury but gave a promising update ahead of the Sweet Sixteen.
Other stats of interest for a NCAA Tournament winner include offensive rebounding at greater than 37%. Only Houston and Connecticut rebound the offensive glass at greater than 37%. Next are Tennessee (35.5%), Alabama (32.8%) and UCLA (32%).
Teams that shoot at least 37% from the 3-point arc are also proven winners. Those teams include: Xavier (38.9%), Michigan State (38.7%) and Gonzaga (38.4%). Next are Miami (36.8%), Florida Atlantic (36.7%), Connecticut (36.2%), Creighton (35.8%), UCLA (34.8%), Houston (34.2%), Texas (34.1%), Alabama (34.1%), San Diego State (34%). However, 3-point shooting has the most variance, and Michigan State was able to win it’s Round of 32 game despite starting 0-for-15 from beyond the arc and finishing just 2-for-16 in a 69-60 win over Marquette, thanks to stronger rebounding and fewer turnovers.
Of course, top defensive teams are always worth considering when wagering on March Madness as teams go deeper in the tournament. The top 5-teams in Ken Pom’s adjusted defensive efficiency ratings are still in the NCAA Tournament. Tennessee, UCLA, Alabama, Houston and San Diego State. And Texas is also in the top-10 with Creighton, Connecticut and Arkansas in the top 15.
Including teams that are stronger defensively in holding opponents to 45% of less in 2-point FG shots is another proven profile of a NCAA Tournament winner. Alabama (40.9%), Houston (42.9%) and Tennessee (44.8%) are best in the Sweet Sixteen. Creighton (45.8%), UCLA (46.6%) and Arkansas (47%) are next.
Many brackets may be busted, but some of these proven stat profiles can help guide you to more betting winners. The cream is still likely to rise to the top as teams shoot for the Final Four and national championship.
You can bet on it.
If you’re still making NCAA Tournament futures bets to win the national championship, here are the current odds at BetMGM.
Odds to win 2023 National Championship
- Alabama (+350)
- Houston (+400)
- UCLA (+800)
- Texas (+900)
- Connecticut (+900)
- Creighton (+1000)
- Tennessee (+1100)
- Gonzaga (+1100)
- Michigan State (+2500
- Kansas State (+3000)
- Arkansas (+3500)
- San Diego State (+4000)
- Xavier (+4000)
- Miami (+5000)
- Florida Atlantic (+5000)
- Princeton (+15000)