NCAA Tournament 2023: Betting The Sweet Sixteen

Sweet Sixteen Odds, Match-ups and NCAA Tournament 2023 Picks

Just two No. 1 seeds made it to the Sweet SixteenAlabama and Houston from the South Region and Midwest Region, which also features No. 2 Texas, No. 3 Xavier and No. 5 Miami as the region that advanced the highest seeds. I’ve chipped NCAA Tournament 2023 and Sweet Sixteen coverage at Forbes, along with match-ups, odds, picks and No. 1 seed history in my update at Off Shore Gaming Association.

I also added Sweet Sixteen and NCAA Tournament betting coverage in a pair of segments I appeared on for CBS News.

Check out all the coverage for additional details, updates and information you can bet on. That includes some of the bets I made ahead of the Sweet Sixteen.

NCAA Tournament – Updated Bracket, Schedules and Scores

NCAA Tournament Betting

Watching and Wagering on the Sweet Sixteen

I hoped to attend the West Region Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight games in Las Vegas, but to be determined as I was not provided media access and still working on options. If not, I’ll be tuning into the games and have a pick and bet on UCLA (-1.5) over Gonzaga. I also bet Xavier and Michigan State on the spread.

“This has been the best start ever to the NCAA Tournament in terms of action and results for the book, including in the futures market with Kansas, Purdue and Duke all losing in the opening two rounds.” – BetMGM.

Jason Scott, VP of Trading for BetMGM, also told me that it was “a very strong four days for the books, and our best result was Duke going down in defeat to Tennessee.”

Sweet Sixteen Match-ups and Odds

Betting lines, odds and over/under game totals by region courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook. Odds are subject to change. All times Eastern. 

Thursday, March 23

No. 3 Kansas State vs. No. 7 Michigan State (-1.5) | Total: 137.5 | 6:30 p.m. | TBS (New York)
No. 9 Arkansas vs. No. 3 Connecticut (-4.5) | Total: 140.5 | 7:15 p.m. | CBS (Las Vegas)
No. 9 Florida Atlantic vs. No. 4 Tennessee (-5.5) | Total: 129.5 | 9:00 p.m. | TBS (New York)
No. 3 Gonzaga vs. No. 2 UCLA (-1.5) | Total: 145.5 | 9:45 p.m. | CBS (Las Vegas)

Friday, March 24

No. 5 San Diego State vs. No. 1 Alabama (-7.5) | Total: 136.5 | 6:30 p.m. | TBS (Louisville)
No. 5 Miami vs. No. 1 Houston (-7.5) | Total: 137.5 | 7:15 p.m. | CBS (Kansas City)
No. 15 Princeton vs. No. 6 Creighton (-9.5) | Total: 139.5 | 9:00 p.m. | TBS (Louisville) *SuperBook odds
No. 3 Xavier vs. No. 2 Texas (-4.5) | Total: 148.5 | 9:45 p.m. | CBS (Kansas City)

No. 1 Seeds

No. 1 seeds are now 89-25 SU in the Sweet 16 (1-2 last year). That includes 74-25 SU vs. teams seeded #4 or #5 (1-2 last year). Until 2015, #1 seeds were getting bounced out of this round going back to 2010, but in the last seven editions (not including 2020 with no tournament) #1 seeds are 19-3 SU (1-2 last year) and 14-8 ATS (0-3 last year) in the Sweet 16

Check out more NCAA Tournament coverage ahead of the Sweet Sixteen including my Profile of a NCAA Tournament Champion at OSGA.

Included are stat profiles and noting that 19 of the last 20 National Champions have finished in the Top 20 in Ken Pom’s offensive and defensive adjusted efficiency rankings.

Alabama, Houston, UCLA, Connecticut and Texas fit that profile with Creighton just missing. Put it all together, and your winning profile for top payouts on futures bets looking best to win the NCAA Tournament and become the 2023 national champion are Houston, Alabama or UCLA. Those three teams also rank 1, 2, 3 in NET rankings.

Odds to Win NCAA Tournament 2023

  • Alabama (+325)  Pre-Tournament +800
  • Houston (+400)  Pre-Tournament +500
  • UCLA (+800)      Pre-Tournament +1400

I’ll update more Thursday and into the weekend for the Elite Eight.

You can bet on it.

Author: FairwayJay is a leading national sports betting analyst, writer, handicapper and sports betting insider providing insight and information you can bet on for nearly two decades from Las Vegas. He chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events for leading media and sports betting sites and companies. Follow him on X (Twitter): @FairwayJay