October begins with NFL Week 4 betting tips following the Browns 27-24 home ‘Dog win over the Steelers on Thursday night football. Cleveland (3-1) moves into first place in the AFC North with their third straight win, and we continue our Tips, Totals, Teasers and Trends report in Week 4 and every week starting at Off Shore Gaming Association.
Five teams remain undefeated at 3-0 – Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs and Las Vegas Raiders in the AFC, and the Minnesota Vikings and San Francisco 49ers in the NFC. The key contest Sunday, Oct. 4 is the AFC West first place showdown in Las Vegas between the Chiefs and Raiders.
Scoring Leaders
NFL scoring is averaging 45.7 points per game through three weeks of action after Week 3 produced 47.2 ppg. Top scoring teams include: Bills (33.7), 49ers (32.7), Lions (31.0), Ravens (30.7), Panthers (29.7), Bears (29.7), Chiefs (29.3), Cowboys (27.3) and Raiders (27.3).
Two matchups of those top scoring teams include Lions-Panthers in Carolina and Chiefs-Raiders in Las Vegas, and we’ll include them and more in our NFL Week 4 betting tips.
The bottom scoring teams have been dreadful in offensive efficiency with the Dolphins (12.0), Patriots (12.3) and Titans (12.3) sinking to new lows followed by the Chargers (14.7), Giants (15.3), Falcons (17.0), Steelers (17.7) and Browns (18.0). The AFC North showdown in Cleveland features the Steelers-Browns this week with the total trending down from 38.5.
Totals, Tips, Teasers and key game analysis
Check back for more Friday and ahead of Sunday’s games and follow updates on X (@FairwayJay).
NFL Week 4 Totals, Tips and Opinions
DET-CAR: Over
DEN-SF: Over
Opinions
IND-WSH: Under
I also lean the Browns way as a home underdog, despite weekly concerns with QB Watson, who is passing much more underneath and far less air yards following a poor Week 1 performance. Late post for picks and Thursday game with line also dipping +3 to +2.5 for the home ‘Dog Browns, who have a negative 0.6 net yards per play offense but the Steelers even worse at -0.7 net yards per play. Thus less scoring with more running and defense along with slower pace carrying the play.
The Detroit Lions are only the 2nd team in NFL history to score 30+ points in each of their first three games of the season, while also having a negative point total differential over those games. In the last three years, Lions non-divison road games have averaged a combined 56.5 points per game.
Our NFL game totals tips and opinions are 8-3 YTD that includes 5-0 on Week 2 totals. We graded a Week 1 loser WSH-PHI that was bet a winner, but big market move dropped to 44.5 on late-week release and closed 44 with an unfortunate 20-point fourth quarter in the Eagles 24-22 win.
Check back for any additions along with our weekly Raiders picks reporting from Las Vegas, which are 4-0 this season on picks and opinions plus 1-0 on player props and 1-1 on leans.
Teasers (3-team 6.5 point, +130)
Giants (+7.5), Cowboys (+9.5), Raiders (+11)
If you want to make some 2-team teasers and mix/match another team, then add Panthers (+10) as well.
Our one 3-team, 6.5-point teaser won in Week 3.
Stats, Systems, Totals and Trends
Totals tipsheet notes that NFL Game 4 home favorites who are undefeated (Bills, Vikings, 49ers) have gone a solid 30-11 over/under since 2005. That includes 6-0 Over the last four years leading into our NFL Week 4 betting tips.
Four teams have surpassed their weekly team totals this season, going 3-0 over – Raiders, Lions, Saints and 49ers.
Also, NFL Game 4 winless non-division favorites (Texans) have gone 8-1 over/under in the last 8 years. NFL Game 4 winless underdogs of 6 or more points have gone 2-8 over/under in last 8 years in Game 4 (Titans, Dolphins, Chargers).
Four teams have gone under their team totals in all three games this season – Packers, Chargers, Dolphins, Patriots.
The Sunday Night Football games are 3-0 Over the total this season averaging 55.7 points per game. The Monday Night Football games are 3-0 Under the total averaging 36.3 points per game.
The Colts-Commanders Week 4 game is in London at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, where the six NFL games have averaged just 39.7 points per game over the past three seasons. Commanders Solid backup QB Marcus Mariota likely starts his second-straight game for injured Jayden Daniels (dislocated left elbow). The Commanders upset the Seahawks at home last week 33-31, but a review of my weekly NFL box scores and proprietary stats and data base shows just 258 yards offense at 4.0 yards per play for Washington. Turnovers were the difference in defeat for Seattle, who was -3 in TO differential and had 437 yards offense. The Colts had their best week in a AFC South home win over the Texans, 19-17 holding Houston to just 223 yards offense (4.4 yppl) but only gaining 300 yards themselves (4.0).
Check back for more tips and totals plus added trends and stats along with a separte Week 4 post for our weekly Picks, Props and Parlays, which went 5-2 in Week 2 (3-1 picks, 2-1 opinions), and 2-2 in Week 3 (2-0 picks) and now 8-6 ATS this season.
Let’s just shoot for a winning week and more positive results with information you can bet on.
You can bet on it.
Author: FairwayJay is a leading national sports betting analyst, writer, handicapper and sports betting insider providing insight and information you can bet on for nearly two decades from Las Vegas. He chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events for leading media and sports betting sites and companies. Follow him on X (Twitter): @FairwayJay
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