NFL Week 3 Lookahead Lines And 2023 Market Moves
The 2023 NFL Week 3 lookahead lines provide us an advance look at the following week’s NFL lines before the current week’s games are played. I provide an explanation and tools for using lookahead lines below. As you review my Week 2 NFL underdog picks, which are 4-1 ATS this season and better than 58% the past six years posting weekly, take a glance at the Week 3 matchups and lookahead lines before they are posted for next week’s games. Then compare them to the actual lines following the Week 2 games.
These NFL Lookahead Lines or advance lines can be useful in not only projecting ahead to next week’s games and lines, but also to keep you from over-reacting to one game or the upcoming games results.
That can especially be the case following Week 1 results, as fans and bettors try to figure out how the 2023 Super Bowl favorites Kansas City Chiefs, Cincinnati Bengals and Buffalo Bills all lost as betting favorites in Week 1.
Week 2 Market Moves and Adjustments
Some of the key Week 2 spreads with notable adjustments from the Week 2 lookahead lines include:
– Houston -2 to -1 (Colts were to early week favorite)
– Chicago -1.5 to Tampa Bay -2.5
– Detroit -3 to -5.5 (now -4.5)
– Buffalo -9.5 to -8
– NY Giants -6 to -4
– San Francisco -6 to -8 (now -7)
– Dallas -3 to -9.5 (now -8.5, QB Rodgers out season)
– Miami -1.5 to -2.5
– New Orleans -1.5 to -3 (MNF)
– Pittsburgh -1 to Cleveland -2.5 (MNF)
Week 1 scoring averaged just 41.0 points per game. That’s down from 48.0 in 2021 and 42.1 in 2022. So there was some significant over/under adjustments in the game totals market for Week 2 from last week’s lookahead lines.
– LAC/TEN: 46.5 to 45
– GB/ATL: 41.5 to 40.5
– CHI/TB: 44 to 41.5
– BAL/CIN: 47.5 to 46.5
– NYJ/DALL 46.5 to 38.5
– WSH/DEN: 41.5 to 39
– NYG/AZ: 38 to 40
– SF/LAR: 42.5 to 45.5
– MIA/NE: 45 to 46.5
– NO/CAR: 42.5 to 39.5
– CLE/PIT: 43.5 to 38.5
NFL Week 3 Lookahead Lines
Week 3 look ahead lines include just two division games. The Sunday Night Football feature game in Las Vegas between the Raiders and Steelers looks to be one of the most heavily bet contests. Over/Under game totals also included.
|NFL Week 3 Games||SuperBook|
|New York Giants at San Francisco (Thurs)||SF -9.5 and 43.5|
|Tennessee at Cleveland||CLE -4.5 / 41.5|
|Houston at Jacksonville||JAX -7.5 and 45|
|New England at New York Jets||NE -1.5 /37.5|
|New Orleans at Green Bay||GB -2.5 /42.5|
|Denver at Miami||MIA -6 and 45.5|
|Buffalo at Washington||BUF -6.5 / 44.5|
|Atlanta at Detroit||DET -5.5 and 45|
|Indianapolis at Baltimore||BAL -7.5 and 44|
|Carolina at Seattle||SEA -4 and 42.5|
|Dallas at Arizona||DAL -10.5 /42|
|Chicago at Kansas City||KC -11.5 and 50|
|Pittsburgh at Las Vegas (SNF)||LV PK ’em /44|
|Los Angeles Rams at Cincinnati (MNF)||CIN -7 and 46|
As you evaluate, watch and wager and live bet on the Week 2 games, be sure you review box scores, impactful injuries, misleading stats and meaningful data from each week’s results. From there you can see where the bookmaker posts the following week’s lines on Sunday and Monday, and compare them to the lookahead lines and market moves during the week.
For example, turnovers were especially problematic for four teams in Week 1 who all suffered at least a -3 turnover differential. Those teams went 0-4 SU/ATS – Panthers (3-0), Vikings (3-0), Giants (3-0) and Bills (4-1) in a 22-16 overtime loss to the NY Jets. The Panthers, Vikings and Bills all out-gained their opponents, but couldn’t overcome the signficant turnover differential. Of course, the significant injury to NY Jets QB Aaron Rodgers has created major movement in the Week 2 odds, line and total between the Jets and Cowboys.
How to use Lookahead Lines
We’ll be updating the NFL advance lookahead lines each week to allow you a sneak peak at the projected lines for the following week’s games. This advance information from top online sportsbooks provides lessons in understanding lines and projections before the current week’s games are played.
The tendencies for many bettors is to over-react to previous weeks’ scores and results. The lookahead lines provide a sense of stability from the linemaker, who is unbiased in setting the lines in advance without the information from the current week’s contests.
Bettors can also gain an edge or find value in the lines once the current week’s lines are released. They do this based on not only a potential over-reaction to the recent week’s results, but by using information they have on teams including power rankings. Making adjustments is part of the process, along with formulating an opinion on certain teams. This can be based on personnel, injuries, situations and stats that come to light as the season progresses.
As you become more astue in your evaluations, betting and handicapping, you’ll be able to use your skills to project and time the market better and make more +EV bets ahead of market moves.
As you evaluate, watch, wager and live bet on the Week 1 games, be sure you review boxscores, impactful injuries, misleading stats and meaningful data from each week’s results. From there you can see where the bookmaker posts the following week’s lines on Sunday and Monday, and compare them to the lookehead lines and market moves during the week.
In the weeks ahead, we’ll compare the lookahead lines to current lines following each week’s results. We’ll shoot to chip-in added insight on key injuries, stats and situatinos that impact the market moves, and shoot for more green and profit on our NFL underdog picks.
You can bet on it.