NFL Week 14 Play of the Day – Los Angeles Rams

After cashing in big on the Falcons as underdog in Week 12 in Atlanta’s 43-6 route of the Raiders, we get behind a favorite in Week 14 and the Thursday night interconference match-up between the New England Patriots and Los Angeles Rams.

This is a really good spot with favorable match-ups for the Los Angeles Rams (-4.5), who I bet earlier at -5 and bet more at -4.5 along with first half -3. The Rams (8-4) are a clear playoff team and contender to win the NFC with one of the league’s elite defenses led by defensive dominator Aaron Donald. He should be harassing Patriots floundering QB Cam Newton, who I also bet under 183.5 passing yards.

I outlined the prop bets and match-ups in my recent article in Forbes, and don’t believe Rams QB Jared Goff will reach his passing prop projection of 262 to 270 yards either.

The lookahead line on this game prior to last week’s results was Rams -6. I don’t get the support towards the Patriots dropping this line to -4.5. I do however support and bet the ‘under’, which has dipped to 43.5 and even 42.5 at some leading online sportsbooks like William Hill and FanDuel.

I’ve seen this situation before with Cam Newton, as he struggles much more against pressure and strong defenses like the Rams. He’s clearly not the player he once was as an MVP, and Newton ranks No. 26 in the league in quarterback rating and Pro Football Focus (PFF) grades Newton No. 21 overall.  Once the Rams slow the Patriots running game, it will be up to Newton to make plays in the passing game. Don’t bet on that, as Cam has passed for less than 100 yards each of the last two games. Newton does not appear right, and perhaps his shouler is still bothering him as you see his passing motion and effort in passing is not as fluid. The Patriots have won their last two games despite little passing success from Newton. Against an elite Rams defense, expect the flaws to be more exposed and the Patriots playoffs hopes to die in LA.

When wagering on NFL games, it can be difficult enough to just pick the straight-up (SU) winner in competitively lined contests (6 points or less). But selecting the SU winner will get you the money (ATS) 90% of the time historically (86% this season). Meaning, either the underdog wins outright or the favorite covers the spread in victory. The point spread in these competitively lined games does not come into play nearly 90% of the time.

I’ve documented those point spread stats and gone Inside the Numbers with boxscore data, rushing stats and point spreads for nearly two decades and expect the Los Angeles Rams to have a more balanced attack and win Thursday to continue their momentum off a statistically dominant 38-28 win over the Cardinals. Look for the Los Angeles Rams to move closer to winning the NFC West with a pounding of the Patriots.

You can bet on it.