NFL Week 11 Play of the Day – Chicago Bears

Let’s add a NFL Week 11 Play of the Day on the Chicago Bears (+3) this week. You can check out all my NFL Week 11 underdog picks posted initially Off Shore Gaming Association. I’ll add this to this site on by Sunday ahead of kickoff with added analysis, insight and information you can bet on.

Our NFL underdog picks posted on these pages are 20-19 ATS this season with 18 outright winners. That follows last year’s last year’s 28-12 ATS 70% season. The 5+ year record posting NFL underdog picks currently stands at 148-106 ATS (57.7%). That also follows 8-straight winning NFL season’s at better than 57% ATS on nearly 650 plays when I previously sold picks for an advisory company more than 10 years ago. I provided NFL insight and analysis and long term winning picks to clients and national radio audience as a nationally-recognized handicapper and top of the leaderboard point spread prognosticator.

We’ve had more INT’s than TD’s since starting the 2022 season 15-8 ATS with 14 outright winners through Week 6. At that time, I would not have ever thought I would bet a dime on the Bears with QB Justin Fields under center the way he and the Bears were playing. But just like NFL coaches and teams make adjustments, handicappers and bettors need to adjust and recognize changes as teams and players improve or regress while staying on top of the betting lines and shooting for value bets as well.

Chicago at Atlanta

The Bears (3-7) look like they can rush for 200 yards again against the Falcon’s (4-6) deficient defense that allows 6.0 yards per play (No. 31) and an average of 164 rushing YPG over their last three contests. The Bears and Falcons rank No. 29 and 30 in DVOA defense, and bottom-6 in rush defense. Bears second-year QB Justin Fields looked completely clueless at the start of the season, but now he’s the most productive player the past four games and should continue his super surge of production, mostly as a runner. The bad news Bears rushed for 258 yards last week in a 31-30 loss to the Lions with Fields again the top rusher with 147 yards and 2 rushing TD’s. Rushing for 250 in an NFL game is a 90% SU winning situation, and this season teams that rush for 150 yards or more in a game are 49-15-1 SU and 46-15-3 ATS (75%). When teams run the ball 30 times or more in a game, they are 71-20-1 SU and 71-18-3 ATS (80%).

Fields is still incompetent as a passer, but should improve (?) and he does have multiple passing touchdowns in each of his past three games, which has really elevated his ceiling. Per Sharp Football Analysis, the Bears lead the NFL with 7 offensive plays of 50 or more yards. Chicago has scored on 22-of-42 (52.4%) of their drives over the past four weeks (second in the NFL) during Field’s takeover, and opponents have scored on 48.8% (21-of-43) of their drives against Atlanta over the past four weeks, the highest rate in the league. Atlanta is 31st in pressure rate (22.8%), 31st in completion rate (68.6%), 27th in yards allowed per attempt (7.7 Y/A), and 28th in passing points allowed per game (16.4). So Fields could also have his most productive passing game as well. The Falcons are 0-2 ATS as a favorite this season and we like the Bears to win outright as a best bet.

NFL Week 11 Betting Lines

Author: FairwayJay is a leading national sports betting analyst, writer, handicapper and sports betting insider providing insight and information you can bet on for nearly two decades from Las Vegas. He chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events for leading media and sports betting sites and companies. Follow him on Twitter: @FairwayJay