NFL Monday Night Football Week 9 Bills-Vikings Preview, Picks And Props

A Monday Night Football Week 9 clash between conference leaders as the AFC East-leading Buffalo Bills (6-1) tackle the NFC North-leading LMinnesota Vikings (6-1) indoors in Minneapolis. I provide initial Monday Night Football preview at OSGA with information you can bet on .

The Bills have dropped as a favorite from -3.5 to -3 with a game total of 44 points at top online sportsbooks. I initially picked and bet the Vikings (+3.5) ahead of the line move, and would continue with the purple people leaders at +3 as backup QB Carson Wentz takes over from 1-and-done Vikings QB Kyler Murray.

Check out our NFL Week 9 report which included the Vikings +3.5 as an Opinion ahead of the line moves. NFL spread picks are 10-3 ATS this season, but opinions fell to 13-13 ATS with a losing Sunday. Totals won this week and are now 23-14.

NFL Bettors Cash in on Week 9 Favorites

Public bettors had their best day of the NFL season in Week 9 with favorites going 13-1 SU and 10-3-1 ATS including road favorites going 8-0 SU and 7-0-1 ATS, and 8-0 ATS or 7-1 ATS pending the number you bet on the Cowboys in their 27-23 win over the Colts. Six starting quarterbacks started Week 9 games who didn’t start in Week 8, including Vikings QB Carson Wentz tonight as home ‘Dog. Those other five QB’s went 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS ahead of the Monday Night Football Week 9 clash between the Bills and Vikings.

Bills-Vikings Stats and Matchups

Fascinating Week 9 matchup on Monday Night Football with top offense of Bills vs. top defense of Vikings. Buffalo leads the NFL in scoring (33.3 ppg), and Minnesota features the league’s top scoring defense (13.3 ppg). The Vikings defense has the edge and better stats in 3-of-4 key defensive categories over the Bills – total yards, yards per play, yards per rush and points allowed. Minnesota also blitzes and brings extra rushers on nearly 3/4 of opposing teams dropbacks. Bills QB Josh Allen may be the biggest and best quarterback to handle the pressure, but better special teams, defense and creating turnovers favors Minnesota.

Both teams 6-1 and Vikings playing in elite and best division in NFL with all teams 6-3 or better. Scheduling, matchups and special teams edge for Vikings and their No. 2 turnover margin (+7) playing at home makes them a live ‘Dog even with (capable) backup QB Carson Wentz against MVP Josh Allen.

From Week 8 forward last season, teams with a 3 or 4 stats edge in a matchup hit 64% ATS on nearly 100 plays. The Vikings defense ranks No. 1 so far this season in scoring (13.3), and No. 2 in total yards (271) and yards per play (4.7). Minnesota has allowed just 14.7 ppg against three NFC North division teams with stronger offenses (Bears bad weather), and overall the Vikings defense has a -0.17 EPA per play and 37.2% success rate allowed. The Bills allow 352 ypg at 5.4 yppl, which is league-average. The Bills run defense is actually a little better, but neither team is top 10. The most points the Vikings defense has allowed this season is 22, and the least points the Bills have scored in a game is 24.

Of course the Bills league-best offense (393 ypg, 6.3 yppl) with top QB Josh Allen gives them edges with a No. 3 success rate and No. 2 in EPA per play. But monitor the status of Pro Bowl franchise left tackle Dion Dawkins (ribs), as he’s questionable and will play through some pain if he starts. The Vikings offense ranks No. 30 in success rate, and is nearly as bad as their defense is elite. But a change at QB to Carson Wentz has already been positive for WR Justin Jefferson when Wentz plays this season and he now has over 100 NFL starts. The Vikings offense can perform better against a Bills defense that is No. 23 in EPA per play and No. 26 in success rate allowed. It’s a fascinating matchup of Allen and the Bills offense against the Vikings top defense and pressure packages.

The Bills hold a +0.9 net yards per play edge over the Vikings, but Minnesota’s stronger and top of the league special teams factor in along with the Vikings No. 2 NFL +7 turnover margin (Bills -2).

NFL Week 9 Monday Night Football #BUFvsMIN. Bills -3 (-120) or -3.5, total 44. Top Bills offense vs top Vikings defense. More advance stats @SharpFBAnalysis plus MNF preview, picks, props & information you can bet on @OffShoreGaming https://t.co/ZN7xIxQX2P

— Fairway Jay (@FairwayJay) November 9, 2026

Player Props for Monday Night Football Week 9

In the Week 5 Monday Night Football matchup between the Bills and Rams in Los Angeles, we cashed in an easy player prop winner at OSGA on QB Matthew Stafford. Now it’s Josh Allen‘s turn to shine again under the Monday Night lights, as he’s been passed by Bengals QB Joe Burrow in the MVP odds.

• Bills RB James Cook Under 86.5 rushing yards.

The Bills had a Week 8-high 37 minutes of ball possession in a 36-10 home route over the Ravens and their mis-mash backup quarterbacks. That won’t happen against the Vikings league-best defense with a capable and competent backup quarterback and offense that can also control the ball, clock and chains more against the Bills sub-par defense. Cook had 21 carries for 80 yards in that win over the Ravens, and 95, 111, 75, 154 and 135 rush yards in the Bills previous five games. But the Vikings run defense ranks No. 6 in opponent rush EPA and No. 2 in opponent rush success rate. This rushing total has been bet up, but readily available at 86.5 and the Bills may be forced to more passing with the Vikings pressure packages also forcing longer 2nd and 3rd down plays.

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