NFL Divisional Round NFC Matchups, Odds, Picks And Props

Following the Wild Card round and late-game touchdowns by the Rams, Bears, Bills and 49ers in victories, the NFL Playoffs continue into the Divisional Round. Eight teams remain with seven games left in the NFL season through the playoffs. Three NFC West teams are still alive in Divisional Round NFC matchups in pursuit of the Lombardi Trophy, along with two AFC East teams to set up potential division matchups in next week’s NFC and AFC Championship games. 

The Bills-Broncos contest in Denver kicks off divisional round action. The favorite has flipped from Bills -1.5 on the opener to Broncos -1. The market efficiency and change in odds and favorite suggests more interest in the Broncos. But early-week betting data at BetOnline shows the Bills have taken more money with the 49ers (+7.5) generating the most money wagered on the point spread in their division showdown against the Seahawks in Seattle.   

The Broncos and Seahawks are the AFC and NFC No. 1 seeds and had a bye last week while the other teams battled it out to get to the divisional round. 

Ahead of the big Divisional Round games, I chip-in more coverage and Divisional Round NFC matchups, odds, picks and props originally provided at BetOnline.

Divisional Round Matchups And Odds

Pro football odds from leading online sportsbooks refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live/in-game betting. Point spreads listed on favorites. All times Eastern. 

Sat., Jan. 17

• Buffalo at Denver (-1), game total 46 | 4:30 p.m. | CBS 
• San Francisco at Seattle (-7), 45 | 8 p.m. | FOX

Sunday, Jan. 18

• Houston at New England (-3.5), 40.5 | 3 p.m. | ESPN/ABC
• Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) at Chicago, 48.5 | 6:30 p.m. | NBC

NFC Players to Watch and Props

The NFC matchups feature the top receivers and most popular players when betting props. 

That includes Seahawks WR Jaxson Smith-Njigba and Rams WR Puka Nacua, who both had more than 1,700 receiving yards this season as the two leading receivers in the league. 

Rams-Bears

Nacua who was a difference maker again in the Rams 34-31 Wild Card win over the Panthers. He caught 10 of 18 targets for 111 yards and one touchdown. Leading TD receiver Davante Adams recorded 5 receptions on 13 targets for 72 yards with MVP favorite QB Matthew Stafford completing 24-of-42 passes for 304 yards and 3 TDs in the victory. 

The Rams are the only road favorite by current point spread and odds in the Divisional Round NFC matchups. The Bears trailed 21-3 at halftime and 21-6 into the 4th quarter last week before a remarkable rally and 31-27 victory over their division rival Green Bay Packers. Bears rookie TE Colston Loveland led all receivers with 8 receptions on 15 targets for 137 yards. DJ Moore (6/64) had a TD receptions while Rome Odunze (2/44) was targeted 6 times and rookie WR Luther Burden III (3/42) was targeted 7 times as the Bears hit numerous big plays in the passing game with six different players gaining more than 20 yards on receptions. Bears QB Caleb Williams passed for 361 yards with 2 TD’s and 2 INT’s completing 24-of-48 passes and only sacked one time. Neither the Rams or Bears had a running back reach 60 rushing yards or break a run beyond 9 yards in their Wild Card game wins. 

Most popular players and yardage props:

• Rams QB Stafford: O/U 269.5 passing yards
• Bears QB Caleb Williams: O/U 218.5 passing yards
• Rams RB Kyren Williams: O/U 61.5 rushing yards
• Rams RB Blake Corum: O/U 46.5 rushing yards
• Bears RB D’Andre Swift: O/U 54.5 rushing yards
• Bears RB Kyle Monangai: O/U 36.5 rushing yards
• Bears QB Caleb Williams: O/U 19.5 rushing yards
• Rams WR Puka Nucua: O/U 98.5 receiving yards
• Rams WR Davante Adams: O/U 53.5 receiving yards
• Bears WR DJ Moore: O/U 28.5 receiving yards
• Bears WR Rome Odunze: O/U 35.5 receiving yards
• Bears WR Luther Burden III: O/U 38.5 receiving yards
• Bears TE Colston Loveland: O/U 54.5 receiving yards

Stafford is managing a sprain on the index finger of his throwing hand suffered in the game against the Panthers. He’ll play against the Bears in Chicago, but monitor his injury and others along with the NFL weather. It’s expected to be cold below 20 degrees with a slight chance of snow and wind speed near 15 mph and gusting a little stronger in Chicago. Rams right guard Kevin Dotson is expected to play against the Bears. He’s among the best in the league and his return is big for the Rams pass protection and more as a run blocker in the running game overall. He’s been out since suffering an ankle injury in Week 16. The Bears escaped last week against the Packers after a huge 4th quarter comeback despite allowing 445 yards offense to Green Bay and Chicago -2 in turnovers. While the home ‘Dog is usually more attractive at this time, the Rams are too strong of an opponent and we’re set to see a sensational showdown at Seattle next week in the NFC Championship Game. 

• Rams -3.5
• Rams RB Kyren Williams: Over 61.5 rushing yards

49ers-Seahawks

On offense, the Seahawks have scored on 45.9% of their possessions (5th) and averaged 5.9 yards per play (6th). Defensively, Seattle ranked second-best in the league (17.2 points per game) while allowing 4.6 yards per play (2nd). The Seahawks tied for the league lead with 4 special teams touchdowns. 

The 49ers had a season-low 173 yards of offense in their Week 18 home loss to the Seahawks, 13-3. That was with top TE George Kittle catching 5 passes on a co-team high 7 targets. But Kittle is out for this game after suffering a torn right Achilles tendon in the Wild Card playoff game against the Eagles. A flaw for both the Seahawks and 49ers offenses is they turn the ball over too much. Seattle has turned the ball over on 14.1% of their possessions (31st) while San Francisco has turned the ball over on 13.3% (29th). 

Seattle’s pass defense has allowed a league-low 6.0 yards per pass attempt and 9.7 yards per completion, including just 5.4 yards per pass attempt when generating pressure on the quarterback. Niners QB Brock Purdy threw for a season-low 4.7 yards per pass attempt and just 4.8 air yards per attempt in the Week 18 home contest against the Seahawks. Purdy has rushed for 20 or more yards in four of his past five games, including 21 yards when these teams met in Week 18.

The 49ers defense ranks 30th in the NFL in pressure rate (30.1%) and last in sack rate (3.3%). Injuries have clearly impacted the, and the Niners have allowed a 67.4% completion rate (29th) over their past 12 games while trying to force quarterbacks to throw more underneath. However, capable quarterbacks have also torched the 49ers secondary with 7 passing TD’s on throws of 20 or more yards downfield (30th) over those 12 games.

• SEA QB Sam Darnold: O/U 238.5 passing yards
• SF QB Brock Purdy: O/U 230.5 passing yards
• SEA RB Kenneth Walker: O/U 58.5 rushing yards
• SEA RB Zach Charbonnet: O/U 46.5 rushing yards
• SF RB Christian McCaffrey: O/U 54.5 rushing yards 
• SF QB Brock Purdy: O/U 17.5 rushing yards
• SEA WR Jaxson Smith-Njigba: O/U 93.5 receiving yards
• SEA WR Cooper Kupp: O/U 30.5 receiving yards
• SEA WR Rashid Shaheed: O/U 23.5 receiving yards
• SF RB Christian McCaffrey: O/U 48.5 receiving yards
• SF WR Jauan Jennings: O/U 40.5 receiving yards

With weather a concern in Chicago, and a dominant Texans defense at New England, I would consider a bet on the Seahawks (+300) to be the highest-scoring team in the Divisional Round and add them to any 6 point teaser bets. Both Seattle and Denver may elect to run the ball more again with the Seahawks 39 rushes for 180 yards in their Week 18 win over the Niners and Broncos attacking the Bills playoff-worst run defense. Buffalo is also up against a stronger Broncos defense that’s rested and ready. But the play-action passing game should provide plenty of open options for Seahawks QB Sam Darnold, and over 6.5 receptions for WR Jaxson Smith-Njigba is a bet and he’s clearly the top target who can also eclipse 100 receiving yards. JSN totaled 84 yards on 6 catches in a run-heavy scheme in Week 18 victory over the 49ers, and now the Seahawks get the Niners at home with an extra week of preparation and rest.  

• Seahawks -7
• 49ers Team Total: Under 19.5 points

Divisional Round Data and Trends

Here is straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) playoff data, courtesy of Playbook Sports and Sharp Football Analysis. The NFL expanded to 14 playoff teams starting with the 2020 season, and went from two teams with first round byes to one while adding an additional Wild Card team in each conference. 

Since the NFL’s expansion to 32 teams in 2002, Divisional Round home teams have gone 63-29 SU, including 3-1 last season when the Washington Commanders upset No. 1 seed Detroit Lions. However, home teams are just 41-50-1 ATS. 

Since 1988, rested home teams in the Divisional Round (DEN and SEA) have gone 105-37 SU and 73-65-4 ATS (5-1 SU/4-2 ATS last 3 years and 1-1 SU/2-0 ATS last year). Road teams coming off a Wild Card Round SU and ATS win (BUF, SF, HOU) are 61-76-2 ATS in Divisional Round contests (1-3 SU/3-1 ATS last year, 2-9 SU 6-5 ATS last 3 years).

The last time all four favorites covered the point spread in the Divisional Round was in 2006.

How rare is a home underdog in the Divisional Round? It’s happened just four times since 2002, and home underdogs are 3-1 straight up.

All Divisional Round underdogs of 7 or more points (49ers) are 13-32 SU and 26-18-1 ATS. 

Only once since the NFL expansion to 32 teams in 2002 has the No. 1 seed been an underdog in the Divisional Round. The Eagles won 15-10 as the No. 1 seed over the Falcons in 2017. 

The over/under is 6-2 in the Divisional Round the last two years with more high-scoring results and five of the eight games totaling at least 50 points. 

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