NFL Betting Week 1 Tips, Totals And ATS Trends

The 2026 NFL regular season kicks off next week following college football Week 1 and Labor Day. A Super Bowl rematch is Wed., Sept. 9 between the Patriots and Seahawks (-3.5) in Seattle, followed by a game Thursday in Australia between NFC West division rivals San Francisco 49ers and LA Rams (-3.5). The full NFL betting Week 1 schedule continues on Sunday, Sept. 13. I’ve chipped-in some betting situations, systems, tips and trends plus additional information you can bet on along with the NFL Week 1 matchups and odds with initial coverage at Off Shore Gaming Association.

As a fundamental handicapper who analyzes stats and matchups, I’ll add more situations, stats and proven profiles that can assist you in your handicapping and help you rush to the window as you battle to beat the top online sportsbooks.

Fairway’s Forecast will chip in more NFL coverage this season while adding other tips, totals and trends along with picks, props and parlays each week. We’ll evaluate stats, schedules and key games impacting the betting markets and provide tips, picks and opinions on games each week.

NFL Betting Data

NFL betting favorites won at a 66% straight up (SU) rate last season (2025), and 49% against the spread (ATS). Recall NFL favorites in the betting market went balistic the final eight weeks of the 2024 regular season, and the full season produced the highest rate of NFL favorites winning in nearly 20 years. Those 2024 NFL betting favorites rewarded more public bettors going 144-121-7 ATS, a 54.4% ATS win rate (5th highest all-time), according to data from Covers.com. The 195-77 straight up (SU) record by NFL favorites (71.7%) was the best performance and highest winning percentage since 2005 (74.9%). That included an absurd 80-28 SU record for road favorites. The 2023 and 2022 NFL seasons produced 68% and 64.9% straight up winners for favorites, and our NFL underdog picks went 11-1 ATS in December 2023 that included nine outright winners and a 7-0 ATS ‘Dog log in Week 14.

Last season there were seven NFL betting Week 1 road favorites, and this season five road favorites will drive public betting interest.

Plenty of ATS trends are floated out to the media and public from newsletters, touts and tipsheets offering a betting breakdown. Most of the trend talk and information is meaningless, but if you can find some that make sense or a system that can work and be supported with data and fundamental match-ups or situations, then incorporate it into your handicapping. But betting a trend blindly is just ridiculous.

NFL Week 1 Betting Angles

Here are some betting angles supporting home underdogs in NFL betting Week 1.

Betting Angle: Divisional home underdogs are 19-16-1 straight up (SU) and 25-11 against the spread (ATS) in Week 1 since 2009. I log weekly boxscore and betting data into spread sheets each week, and last season those home division ‘Dogs were 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS. Leave it to the Browns to outgain the Bengals 327 (4.6 yards per play) to 141 (2.9) and have a 22-11 first down advantage, only to lose 17-16. All four divisional home underdogs lost close games by 4 points or less, and three of them outgained their division foes by 186, 98 and 63 yards in defeat. Of course the Browns were -2 in turnover margin. The previous year in 2024, home division ‘Dogs were 0-1 SU/1-0 ATS (Colts), and just 2-4 SU/ATS in 2023.

Home ‘Dogs overall in Week 1 last year were just 1-7 SU and 3-5 ATS. There are four home underdogs in Week 1 this season, but just one home divisional ‘Dog as the Giants (+3) host the Cowboys.

Also, leading sportsbook BetUS reports that all Week 1 underdogs have hit greater than 54% ATS the last 13 seasons going 111-93-4 ATS (7-9, 7-9 and 10-6 ATS last 3 years) with divisional ‘Dogs 44-25-1 ATS (63.7%) home or away.

NFL Week 1 Games And Odds

Betting lines and NFL odds from top online sportsbooks refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live betting. Point spread on favorites plus game totals, and division games in bold.

Matchup	Spread	Total	Date
New England at Seattle	Seattle -3.5	44.5	Wed., Sept. 9
San Francisco vs. LA Rams	LA Rams -4	48	Sept. 10 (Australia)
Cleveland at Jacksonville	Jacksonville -8	40.5	Sun., Sept. 13
Tampa Bay at Cincinnati	Cincinnati -4	50.5	Sun., Sept. 13
Baltimore at Indianapolis	Baltimore -3.5	48	Sun., Sept. 13
Atlanta at Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh -3	41.5	Sun., Sept. 13
Buffalo at Houston	Buffalo -1	44.5	Sun., Sept. 13
Chicago at Carolina	Chicago -2.5	47.5	Sun., Sept. 13
NY Jets at Tennessee	Tennessee -1.5	39.5	Sun., Sept. 13
New Orleans at Detroit	Detroit -7	50	Sun., Sept. 13
Arizona at LA Chargers	LA Chargers -10	47.5	Sun., Sept. 13
Miami at Las Vegas	Las Vegas -3.5	41	Sun., Sept. 13
Washington at Philadelphia	Philadelphia -5	45.5	Sun., Sept. 13
Green Bay at Minnesota	Minnesota -1	46	Sun., Sept. 13
Dallas at NY Giants	Dallas -3	48	Sun., Sept. 13
Denver at Kansas City	Kansas City -2.5	43.5	Mon., Sept. 14

Five division games in Week 1 and just four road favorites overall. Check back next week for added stats and our weekly picks, props and parlays along with any additional tips, totals and trends.

 

NFL Week 1 ATS Tips and Trends

Here are some tips, trends and ATS situations and systems with data provided by the Vegas Stats & Information Network and Action Network media and research teams.

– NFL Week 1 double-digit favorites are 7-14 ATS since 2000. But there hasn’t been such favorite since 2019. This season kicks off with the Chargers (-10) laying double-digits at home against the Cardinals with select online sportsbooks still offering LAC -10.5.

– Week 1 underdogs of 6.5 points or more are 32-13-1 ATS (71.1%) since 2013. Teams that declined by 5 or more wins the previous season (KC, DET, WSH, MIN, AZ) are 26-13 ATS (66.7%) in the qualifying rebound spot Week 1.

– Jim Harbaugh is 6-0 SU/ATS in Week 1’s as an NFL head coach after the Chargers (+3) beat the Chiefs in last season 37-21. The Chargers are the only double-digit favorite in Week 1 this season.

– The Patriots and Chiefs have lost the last two Super Bowls in one-sided games (14+ points). In the Wild Card era (since 1990), there has been 13 teams lose by 14+ points in the Super Bowl the year prior. Those Super Bowl losers (not yet including Patriots) went 4-8 SU and 2-10 ATS in Week 1 of the next season. That includes eight consecutive losses ATS in Week 1, with the last team to cover being the 1997 Patriots beating the Chargers at home. The Patriots are a +3.5 point underdog at Seattle to kickoff Week 1 this season on Wed., Sept. 9.

– Packers head coach Matt LaFleur is 17-4 ATS within their first 3 games of the season since 2019, best of any team in the NFL. That includes 9-0 ATS at home in Lambeau Field. The Packers first home game this season is Week 3 on Thursday, Sept. 24 vs. the Falcons.

More updates, stats and ATS data as we research and chip-in more information you can bet on.

You can bet on it.