NFL 2023 Week 18 Underdog Picks And Preview

FairwayJay’s 7 year record posting NFL Underdog Picks is 57%, and previous 8-straight winning seasons greater than 57% on nearly 650 plays

I’ve posted my updated NFL 2023 Week 18 underdog picks at Off Shore Gaming Association, where I provide picks by Friday each week along with other underdogs in considertion mid-week. Week 18 is unique with teams that secured a playoff spots resting more starters, including quarterbacks with five teams resting starting QB’s in Week 18 – Ravens, Chiefs, Rams, 49ers and Browns. Thus, I’ll be considering additions over the weekend after reviewing more injury reports, rosters and starters status while understanding more line moves are expected.

A total of 67 different starting quarterbacks will have started this season following Week 18.

A 2-0 result on our Week 17 underdog picks helped us finish December 11-1 ATS with 9 outright winners. The 2023 season underdog picks are 28-25 ATS with 19 outright winners. The 7-year record of posting only NFL underdog picks is now 190-142 ATS (57%). I’m not including pushes in the records. Recall we had a 70% season in 2021, and we’ll shoot for more profits and payouts in Week 18 and the upcoming playoffs.

NFL Week 18 Odds

https://twitter.com/FDSportsbook/status/1742207873189658785

Some noteable line moves since Tues/Wed. to Friday include:

Saints -3.5 to -3. Bengals -5.5 to -7. Jaguars -5.5 to -3.5. Patriots -2.5 to -1.5. Lions -5.5 to -3.5. Buccaneers -5.5 to -4.5. Chargers -2.5 to -3.5. Niners -3.5 to -4.

Also, the playoff picture continues to change, and I had updated the NFC and AFC playoff contenders schedules, odds and information you can bet on in some of my recent coverage in Forbes.

Nine teams have secured playoff spots with five more available in Week 18. I break down the key games, matchups and playoffs in my Week 18 coverage at OSGA, along with initial game analysis on the Steelers-Ravens game Saturday with our early pick on Baltimore as a home ‘Dog and No. 1 seed secure as MVP QB Lamar Jackson sits out Week 18.

More ATS info: Teams in a must-win (i.e. eliminated with a loss) in the final 2 weeks of the season are just 71-102-5 ATS against teams that are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. That negative ATS situation applies to Tampa Bay, Jacksonville, Green Bay and Seattle in Week 18.

NFL Week 18 injury reports 

Be sure to monitor the NFL weather with cooler temps and more rain in forecasts, and snow and cold at more cities for Week 18 games.

Turnovers continue to be game changers and impact SU and ATS results when there is at least a 2 TO differential. Teams that are plus three (+3) or more in the turnover column in a game this season are 46-4 SU / 43-6-1 ATS. Teams that are plus two (+2) are 39-10 SU and 36-11-2 ATS.

Fairway’s Forecast – NFL 2023 Week 18 Underdog Picks

Baltimore (+4) vs. Pittsburgh – Ravens Moneyline +175
Chicago (+3) at Green Bay – Bears Moneyline +135 (added Sunday, see analysis at OSGA)

VSiN research notes that since 2011, underdogs in the games where teams are resting starters are on a 22-9 ATS run (71%). More Steelers-Ravens game analysis and stats in my coverage and picks at OSGA. The game total has dropped 3 points to 35 with definite rain and winds up to 15 MPH forecast as you monitor the NFL weather for each game. The Steelers are 52-22-2 ‘Under‘ in all road games going back to 2015, including 5-2 this season.

Please check back as I work on more underdog picks, game analysis, stats and insight for Friday and over the weekend as we review injury reports as well.