NFL 2023 Week 17 Underdog Picks And Preview

FairwayJay’s 7 year record posting NFL Underdog Picks is 57%, and previous 8-straight winning seasons greater than 57% on nearly 650 plays

I’ve posted my updated NFL 2023 Week 17 underdog picks at Off Shore Gaming Association, where I provide picks by Friday each week along with other underdogs in considertion mid-week. Game analysis to be added as injury reports are reviewed Friday and I research more stats based on those matchups.

However, I’ve added more insight into rushing stats and edges for Week 17 matchups, as I’ve been loading box score data into spread sheets for more than two decades and use my proprietary rushing stats to guide me towards more winners in select matchups.

That included in Week 16 when I bet on the Bears as a favorite, and Chicago (-4) out-ruashed Arizona by margin as projected, 250-93 in a 27-16 home win. Same with the Titans, which played out as some of my handicap projected, and why I included Tennessee as a Week 16 underdog pick.

Fairway’s Forecast and NFL Week 16 underdog went 1-1-1 ATS and are now 9-1 ATS with 8 outright winners in December (plus 2 pushes). For the 2023 season, our underdog picks are now  26-25 ATS with 18 outright winners. The 7-year record of posting only NFL underdog picks is now 188-142 ATS (57%). I’m not including pushes in the records. Recall we had a 70% season in 2021, and we’ll shoot for more winners in the final few weeks and playoffs.

Rushing to the Window

The Titans (+3) lost in the final minute at home to Seattle, 20-17 last Sunday, despite rushing 31 times for 162 yards. The Seahawks ran the ball 20 times for 58 yards and just 273 total yards. So we pushed on the Titans, who were the only team in Week 16 that outrushed their opponent by at least 30 yards and lost the game.

Those teams that outrush their opponent by at least 30 yards went 10-1 SU and 7-4 ATS last week, and are now 121-43 SU and 112-43-9 ATS (72%), which is slightly below the historical average of nearly 75% the past 20+ years with no season below 72% ATS. In fact, teams that run the ball at least 30 times in a game (when their opponent does not), are 123-34 SU and 119-28-10 ATS (81%), which shows the power of running the ball more and better than 80% chance of winning the game and covering the spread.

Read more NFL rushing to the window insight with stats and handicapping tools with information you can bet on. I’ve updated some of the rushing stats above, and working on more articles and coverage.

NFL Handicapping Success, Strategies and Sports Betting Stories

Notable rushing edge projections in Week 17 favor the Browns, Lions, Ravens, Bears, 49ers, Steelers.

Week 17 Odds, Lines & Matchups

Week 17 #SuperContest and #SuperContestGold lines 🏈

Be sure to get your picks in by 11:59 pm this Saturday (12/30). Mobile Picks must be in by 9 pm Saturday (12/30) pic.twitter.com/j1gUff27p9

— SuperBook Nevada (@SuperBookNV) December 27, 2023

Also, the playoff picture continues to change, and I had updated the NFC and AFC playoff contenders schedules, odds and information you can bet on in some of my recent coverage in Forbes.

NFL Week 17 injury reports 

Fairway’s Forecast – NFL 2023 Week 17 Underdog Picks

Las Vegas (+3.5) at Indianapolis – Raiders Moneyline +160
Pittsburgh (+3.5) at Seattle – Steelers Moneyline +155

Please check back as I work on more underdog picks, game analysis, stats and insight for Friday and over the weekend as we review injury reports as well.