NBA Handicapping – Analysis of Winning Wagers

Betting the NBA Playoffs and Analysis of Winning Wagers

Our strong start to the NBA playoffs continued Monday with a 3-0 sweep for members, who have been been joining the playoff profit party. We’re now 10-4 ATS in postseason play including 5-0 in round 2. Monday’s trifecta of winners included more solid situations when betting the playoffs that have proven to be quite profitable for us since the NBA playoffs turned to a 7-game series format in 2002 for all playoff series. I noted a home favorite betting situation you can use and follow in the article, and it’s off to a 3-0 start with the top-seeded home teams delivering in Game 1 of the conference semifinals.

We clearly don’t handicap only from a technical or ‘zig-zag’ theory, and in fact we use those situations as a smaller percentage of our handicapping process. But I reference some of those patterns and incorporate them into the match-ups and betting lines while evaluating injuries, coaching and proven situations and subsets to isolate potential plays and additional edges in our handicapping processes. Our prepping for the NBA playoffs and match-up analysis has allowed us to isolate and use some solid situations which often get stronger and include totals as some of the series move forward with Class A team match-ups.

Thus far we’re making the right moves and hitting the big shots while going 10-4 ATS, but understand a missed layup on one end and a quick three-pointer on the other can turn a winner into a 1-point loser and we’re always prepared for variance and potential pitfalls as we navigate and narrow our wagering choices.

Here is some analysis of the two games May 2nd along with the April 30 opening game between the Spurs and Thunder which I provided to members as part of our NBA playoff selections. We had a Top Play on the Cavaliers along with ‘under’ the total in the first game, and came back with the contrary call on the Thunder against the Spurs in Game 2 of their series. A Top Play winner on the Spurs in Game 1, and our Top Plays are now 3-1 in the playoffs and you can get more victories and value by joining other members who put their confidence and trust in a proven professional.

Mon., May 2

Cavaliers vs Hawks – Game 1

Cleveland has beaten Atlanta 7-straight times and swept them out of the Eastern Conference finals last season when LeBron James averaged 30 points, 11 rebounds and 9 assists per game in a dominant series sweep. The Cavs have beaten the Hawks 3 times this season including twice by double-digits on this court.

The Hawks defense is improved this season under former Spurs Ass’t Budenholzer. Atlanta allowed 99 PPG on 43% FG shooting to rank among the best in the league while ranking No. 2 in the league in defensive efficiency. That defense and the Hawks showed well in their opening series win over Boston, and five of those six games went under the total with Boston ranking top-3 in the league in pace of play. The Cavs play at one of the slowest paces but are very efficient on offense. We expect defense to be strong on both sides in this intense series, and the linemaker has opened the Game 1 total below the regular season meetings.

We’ll play both the side and total in this opening game and cruise with the Cavs as a Top Play in Game 1 knowing they have a full week of rest and and fit the same solid situation that gave us a 2-0 round 2 start on favored San Antonio and Golden State. The Cavs fit a solid subset situation and are also 100% full strength with a healthy Love and Irving, who missed much of last year’s playoffs.

Spurs vs Thunder – Game 2

We cashed a Top Play winner with the Spurs in their Game 1 romp over the Thunder, but this Game 2 situation is too strong to pass up despite the contrary nature and bettors clear hesitation to support OKC and play against the Spurs. But the reality is that Class A teams off a one-sided loss at this price point in Game 2 fit some strong situations to bounce back. These two teams split their regular season series 2-2 with the Spurs wins coming by 4 and 8 points. Expect a strong showing by the Thunder even against a dominant and focused Spurs team that has been virtually unbeatable at home.

Sat., April 30

Spurs vs Thunder – Game 1

Strong series of Class A teams with #2 seed Spurs vs. #3 Thunder. San Antonio’s top defense still has a big edge again in this series. They allowed just 92 PPG this season to teams that averaged better than 102 PPG. Those numbers are even better at home in their last five games, and the Spurs are now 42-1 at home this season. San Antonio dominated shorthanded Memphis in the opening series holding the Grizzlies to just 81 PPG on less than 40% FG shooting with a scoring differential of +88; the third-highest scoring differential in a 4-game series in NBA postseason history. .

Oklahoma City allowed 102 PPG this season including 106 PPG on the road while posting a losing ATS record. They played two high-scoring games on the road in the opening playoff series against Dallas while allowing the Mavericks to shoot 50% FG in two games while hitting better than 53% FG themselves scoring 131 and 119 points in a pair of road wins. The playoff course gets much tougher against the Spurs and on the road at San Antonio.

Coach Popovich kept his players fresh despite a physical series against Memphis, and home court in this conference semi-final round means more than any other in the NBA playoffs.

Since 2002, conference semifinal home favorites of 5-or more points are better than a 60% ATS play (sample 150+ games). When we eliminate the top #1 seeds, this ATS situation is even stronger at greater than 65% ATS. There are even stronger situations that don’t apply to this match-up that we can apply in others, but we expect the Spurs to show their strength and dominance at home in Game 1 against the defenseless Thunder.