Fairway’s Football Forecast – NFL Week 16 Underdog Picks And Preview

Identifying NFL Week 16 Underdog Picks and Bets

A light Week 15 included a Thursday night win on the Chargers (+3) as they essentially eliminated the Raiders from the playoff picture with a 30-27 overtime win. My Week 16 ‘Dog log includes four underdogs including three home ‘Dogs as we look to improve on our 20-23 ATS record on these pages picking only underdogs. The 3-plus year record selecting underdogs only is now 97-77 ATS (55.7%).

I’ve not lived up to past seasons success, but made the decision to try this format of selecting only underdogs knowing that I do bet favorites, totals, player props, NFL Week 16halftimes, quarters, in-game and other opportunities as updated in other coverage including at osga like Christmas Day in the Saints win. More coverage and recent player props in Forbes, where I contribute sports betting insight and information you can bet on. Missed the mark on RB Alvin Kamra’s receiving prop despite his record six rushing touchdowns and huge day leading the Saints to a 52-33 route of the Vikings.

Check out my latest underdog picks with full analysis at Offshore Gaming Association. Some ugly underdogs for certain going against the popular public plays.

NFL Week 16 Underdog Picks

462 Las Vegas (+3) vs Miami – Raiders Moneyline +135
456 NY Jets (+10) vs Cleveland – Jets Moneyline +380
468 Jacksonville (+7.5) vs Chicago – Jaguars Moneyline +305
475 LA Rams (+1) at Seattle – Rams Moneyline +100

Check out the Week 16 injury report as you evaluate more information you can bet on.

There are some big games that will impact divisions and playoff positioning including the Steelers vs Colts and Seahawks vs Rams. The Saturday game in Las Vegas is meaningful for Miami, who is still in the playoff hunt. The Dolphins (9-5) also have the best Against the Spread record this season at 11-3 ATS.

Miami’s stock is high, and bettors easily forget Miami was a 3.5-point road favorite to mostly dreadful Denver back in Week 11 and the fish got fried 20-13 and were out-gained 459-223. As I covered two weeks ago on these pages, I don’t believe the Dolphins turnaround will include the playoffs. But bettors are swimming with the fish with more than 2-of-every-3 spread bets on the Dolphins to win and cover against the Raiders. More than 73% of the money is supporting Miami at a majority of online sportsbooks.

Miami at Las Vegas

The Dolphins have covered four straight games, but the efficiency numbers don’t match and Miami has been fortunate Inside the Numbers. The Dolphins defense and special teams are stronger and they have a plus-10 turnover margin to minus-6 for the Raiders this season. We’re selling on Miami and expect the Raiders to show well despite most bettors feeling the Raiders season is shot after last week and prefer Miami’s motivation.

Author: FairwayJay is a leading national sports betting analyst, writer, handicapper and sports betting insider providing insight and information you can bet on for nearly two decades from Las Vegas. He chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events for leading media and sports betting sites and companies. Follow him on X (Twitter): @FairwayJay