FairwayJay’s FREE NFL Selection Week 11

FairwayJay’s FREE NFL Selection & Game Analysis of Indianapolis at Tennessee

Line: Colts -2.5 or -3 (+100) I Total: 43

The Indianapolis Coltss (6-3 SU / 5-4 ATS) travel to Nashville to take on division rival Tennessee Titans (4-5 SU / 5-3-1 ATS) in a key Thursday night game.  Both teams enter off embarrassing losses last week as the Colts had five turnovers and were crushed at home as a big favorite 38-8 by the Rams.  We had an opinion winner on the Jaguars as big ‘Dog at Tennessee last Sunday and they won outright as the Titans also suffered turnover troubles with 4 TO’s in a 29-27 loss to the previously winless Jaguars.

As expected, the Colts are getting lots of love in the betting market with over 76% of the bets on Indianapolis for this key division match-up.  The Colts lead the AFC South division by two games over the Titans, and clearly Indianapolis is a quality team with road wins at San Francisco and home wins over Denver and Seattle. But the perplexing performances against St. Louis, San Diego and Houston with their very fortunate comeback win against the Texans at Houston two weeks ago indicate the Colts may have peaked and inconsistent play could continue.  The passing attack is not as efficient now without WR Reggie Wayne and the running game is dismal recently despite the acquisition of RB Trent Richardson. Indianapolis is averaging just 69 rushing ypg their last three games while running it just 18 times per game.  While the Rams jumped on the Colts early last week and the game flow dictated more passing from the QB Luck, can’t ignore that the Rams set the blueprint for the Titans success against the Colts Thursday as St. Louis ran the ball 37 times for 140 yards while Indy had just 14 running plays for 18 yards rushing. The Colts may try to play to their strength in passing with QB Andrew Luck, but the Titans pass defense ranks top-8 in the NFL and has allowed just one WR to eclipse 100 yards receiving this season.

A review of the Titans schedule shows they have lost four of their last five games and have faced average to below average QB’s most the season. However, in their one home game against a higher-rated QB in Philip Rivers, the Titans beat San Diego 20-17 and held Rivers to 184 passing yards. That’s the same Chargers teams that shut down Colts QB Luck and embarrassed Indianapolis on Monday Night football a month ago, 19-9.  Thursday’s division showdown is the game of the year for the Titans, as they will bring a home run effort knowing they must win to stay in the division race and also the playoff picture. The running game success points towards the Titans, as they run the ball an average of 28 times per game and should pound the ground often against a below-average Colts run defense that ranks #26 in the NFL allowing 126 rushing ypg and 4.3 ypr.  The speed of RB Chris Johnson should pose problems for the Colts front seven and Johnson should touch the ball close to 20 times after having his best game of the year two weeks ago at St. Louis and their stronger defensive front when Johnson rushed 23 times for 150 yards. Backup QB Ryan Fitzpatrick starts after Jake Locker was re-injured last week and placed in injured reserve, but Fitzpatrick may be the better solution for the Titans and he passed for 264 yards in relief last week.  The Colts do have a pretty solid secondary and teams only complete an average of 18 passes per game (#3 NFL) against Indy, which further demonstrates the importance of the Titans running game in this match-up.  Yet the Colts do rank #28 in the NFL in opponents QB yards per pass attempt, and they have been torched the past three games allowing a league-high 9.5 yards per pass attempt against Peyton Manning (DEN) and backup QB’s Case Keenum (HOU) and Kellen Clemons (STL).  In the Colts road game at Houston two weeks ago, Indy allowed undrafted rookie QB Case Keenum to pass for 350 yards and 3 TD’s in his starting debut.

Well aware the Colts have dominated this series in recent years going 8-1 SU. Indy QB Luck is also 8-1 ATS off a loss.  But the Colts have played poorly in recent weeks and the Titans not only get them at the right time, but also at home and on a short week.  Clearly the Titans were looking past the Jaguars last week in anticipation of this game, and it showed in their sloppy play and unfortunate loss.  No such focus issues this week. Let’s support the better running game and defense as ‘Dog, as we expect the Titans best effort and a rewarding result in a lower-scoring victory.  Like Monday Nights winner and money-line recommendation on the Buccaneers, we’ll suggest another portion of your wager on the Titans money line.

I provide some initial insight on this game and all of Sunday’s games on my NFL Week 11 Podcast.

 

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