Monday Night Football Handicapping Week 10

Monday Night Football Handicapping Week 10 – Miami at Tampa Bay

Line: Dolphins -2.5  l  Total:  41

The winless Tampa Bay Buccaneers ( 0-8 SU / 2-6 ATS ) host the Miami Dolphins ( 4-4 SU / 4-4 ATS ) in a battle of Florida on Monday Night football November 11, 2013. ESPN carries the coverage live from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, FL at 8:40 ET.  My clients and I are live in this game with a 2-team 6-point teaser with the Lions winner complete and the Bucs (+8.5) at the line from Friday and over the weekend.  Tampa Bay has taken some money now with some 2’s also available.

The Bucs nearly pulled off the upset of the season last week, but after blowing a 21-0 lead at Seattle, they lost 27-24 in overtime.  A positive indicator from that contest came from Tampa’s running game, which rushed for 205 yards in defeat against the stout Seahawks defense.  Former University of Miami RB and Bucs backup running back Mike James rushed for 158 yards in only his second start, and his rookie counterpart at QB Mike Glennon performed well going 17/23 for 168 yards, 2 TDs and zero INTs.  Will the Bucs repeat that effort and performance in Prime Time Monday night?  Glennon has 6 TDs and zero INTs his last three games, and he has a top target at WR in Vincent Jackson, who possesses that rare combination of size and speed.  Glennon’s improvement and support of a running game is key to the Bucs getting their first win Monday night.

Team chemistry could be an issue for the Dolphins with the clubhouse altercations involving the Incognito/Martin media mess. They enter with some extra rest and prep following a fortunate 22-20 OT win over the Bengals.  Turnovers were the real issue for Cincinnati as the Bengals out-gained the Dolphins 465-345 but suffered a 4-1 TO differential (a 93% ATS losing situation).  The Bengals modest running game rushed for 163 yards at 4.7 ypr, so expect plenty of ground game going for the Bucs Monday.  The Buccaneers defense ranks middle of the pack in the NFL allowing 348 ypg and 5.5 yards per play, but they have faced some much stronger offenses that Miami’s 29th-ranked unit (315 ypg). And note the Bucs defense (stats) are better than the Dolphins defense, and expect plenty of pressure on Miami QB Tannenhill, who already has very poor pass protection with Tannenhill being sacked a league-high 35 times entering week 10 and now more shuffling on the offensive line.  With both Incognito and Martin now out along the offensive line, the shakeup and sacks figure to be more problematic with Bucs DT Gerald McCoy expected to be a disruptive force Monday.  The Dolphins rate below average from the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, and remember they had lost 4-straight games until the Bengals blew it and helped Miami snap that losing streak last week.

The Buccaneers underrated special teams rank top-7 in kickoff return and coverage.  While they remain winless, I expect a strong effort on Monday Night football against a average team at best. Well aware teams off a Thursday game are 12-5 ATS this season and that the Bucs continue to struggle and burn their betting backers; 2-6 ATS this season and on a 3-11 ATS run.  Public struggles to support bad teams and the Bucs stat profiles also support poor play with an offense averaging just 15 ppg and 4.8 yards per play, and now with a rookie backfield at QB and RB with top running back Martin out.

With the line moving downward, let’s make a play on the Buccaneers on the money line to break through with their first win!