College Basketball Handicapping – Analysis Of A Winning Wager

Analysis Of A Winning Wager On Under-The-Radar Sacramento State

Members enjoyed another 20* Top Play Big Bertha winner Thursday when Sacramento State improved to 8-0 at home in Big Sky play with a 66-59 win over Northern Colorado.  That improved our 20* Top Plays to 7-1 in February as we continue our solid run producing profits. Here was the analysis below provided to Members on Sacramento State, who along with Pepperdine Thursday and Penn State Wednesday cashed for us using our late season situation and positive profile.

Join me for the rest of the regular season and through the conference tournaments and postseason play including the big dance NCAA Tournament.

Northern Colorado at Sacramento State 

A perennial losing program, Sacramento State is enjoying it’s best season since going D-1 in 1991.   The Hornets are 16-9 including 11-1 on their home court at the NEST and 7-0 in Big Sky play. They shoot 53% FG and 43% from the arc at home and have out-scored opponents by nearly 12 PPG at the Hornets Nest.  Sacramento State is 10-3 in Big Sky play just 1/2 game behind league-leader Eastern Washington. Prior to their recent two losses including taking Eastern Washington to the wire before falling 64-61 on the road, the Hornets had won 7-straight games including a domination of Eastern Washington on this court a month ago 90-77. Sac State will surely be focused and bring their best in redemption for a 84-73 loss to Northern Colorado on January 10.  The Bears shot a season-high 64% in that contest but don’t expect anything close to that as the Hornets buzz them back home. Know too that the regular season champion hosts the Big Sky Conference tournament, so there will be full focus and no letup or letdown by Sacramento State.

From a stats standpoint, the Bears score 77 PPG to 72 PPG for the Hornets in Big Sly play, but No. Colorado is tied for the league’s worst scoring defense allowing 76 PPG to 69 PPG for Sac State. Both teams shoot the ball very well at 50% for Sac State and 48% for No. Colorado, and each are excellent from the arc at 43%. But neither team defends we’ll allowing 48% FG. Both have a similar negative rebounding margin with few blocked shots and no rim protector. Sac State turns the ball over the least in the league and has the best assist-to-turnover ratio led by the best player on the floor in PG Mikh McKinney ( 20 PPG, 52% FG ), a senior sharp shooter who hits 45% from the arc and leads the league in assists and steals. 

As we evaluate and analyze the college basketball card daily, the handicapper is asked to do situational handicapping regarding each team as well as evaluate stats, systems, injuries and coaching profiles.  Dichotomous home/road splits are clearly an important part of the point spread puzzle also, along with analyzing a teams’ emotional responses in either a bounce back, let down and look-ahead situation.  As the Hornets push for a regular season crown, it comes together tonight on much-improved Sacramento State as the Hornets sting the Bears in redemption in front of a sellout crowd on their strong home court.