NFL Preseason is the Start of Football Betting Season

Bettors and Sportsbooks Gear Up for Football Season and Preseason Kickoff

Pro football fans rejoice as the NFL kicks off preseason action in the Hall of Fame Game on Thursday, Aug. 2. The Baltimore Ravens and Chicago Bears meet in Canton Ohio, and the rest of the teams start playing preseason games Aug. 9 to 11. It’s been 26 weekends since fans and bettors last wagered on an NFL game when the Eagles and Patriots gave us a memorable contest with the most net yards (1,151) of any game in NFL history and the 2^nd highest scoring Super Bowl in history with the Eagles 41-33 victory. And starting next weekend, football fans and bettors will enjoy the next 26 weekends of live games every weekend through the Super Bowl Feb. 4, 2019 at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia.

The sportsbooks also anxiously wait for the start of football season also, as football season generates the most betting action of any sports season. During the 2017 season, football generated $1.7 billion in wagers in Nevada. That accounted for more than 35% of the record $4.8 billion wagered in all sports at Nevada sports books. That amount is also a fraction of the wagering action and handle at the leading offshore sports books, and more legal bets will be handled in the U.S. this football season with up to six states taking bets following the Supreme Court’s decision in May to strike down the federal ban (PASPA) on sports betting.

So football is king, and weather it’s sports betting, and the ever-growing interest of in-game wagering and mobile access to watch and wager on the games, or football contests, fantasy football pools or daily fantasy sports (DFS), it’s clear that football is more than just a game and the arrival of NFL preseason football signifies the start of a another big season ahead.

To give you an idea of the interest of even preseason football in the betting market, MGM, a major casino and sports book operator in Nevada and nationwide, says the action on the Hall of Fame game alone will surpass that of many MLB games during the course of a week.

For years, the general public has not quite embraced betting on the NFL preseason. That’s changing and will grow with a larger portion of the American public involved and able to bet legally on sports. But a few years ago Jay Rood, Vice President of MGM Race and Sports noted that “the sharps have totally embraced it (NFLX), because it’s something where information can really be critical and pan out for the good.”

The sharps, or those considered wise guys, are bettors or groups of bettors that have done their homework and are often taking advantage of lines, both sides and totals, that they feel are slightly off or will move with more betting action. They are often the leaders in the marketplace, while a majority of the public are followers. In the NFL, lines don’t move much as compared to college football. In the preseason, more lines are set close to ‘3’ than at any other time during the season, so sharps are looking for other information than just stats or numbers to gain an advantage and edge.

The Hall of Fame game has the following line at the leading online sportsbooks:

Chicago +2.5

Baltimore -2.5 (-115)

Total 33.5

In next week’s first full schedule of preseason games, there are 14 games posted at the leading sports books with betting lines and totals. Of those, 10 have a posted line from -2 to -3.5 points. And 10 of those games also have a posted total between 34-35 points. That won’t change much, but if you think scoring could continue its upswing swing following the Super Bowl shootout, then you might try to get ahead of the curve and bookmaker and take a stance to bet on more higher-scoring preseason games. Preseason totals are traditionally priced much lower than regular season, but perhaps we’ll see more scoring this season or as the preseason progresses.

The importance of shopping around for the best lines and having multiple ‘outs’ or sportsbooks at your disposal to bet games is evident, even in preseason football. Some sportsbooks are not charging 15 cents (-115) as vigorish on the Ravens and offer standard -110. Other leading reduced juice sports books like 5Dimes allow you to risk less, often -105 on games. In Las Vegas, even -3 has popped up on the Ravens in the Hall of Fame game while 34 is pretty standard on the total at many Vegas strip properties as there was a meaningful move on the total which is likely the result of betting action from more sharp players or bettors the house is familiar with and respects their action.

The Bears aren’t just breaking in new players in the preseason kickoff Hall of Fame game, but also a new head coach with Matt Nagy, 39, who served as the Kansas City Chiefs offensive coordinator part of last season. Quarterback Mitch Trubisky starts his second season with the Bears and is trying to adapt quickly to Nagy’s QB-friendly system. Former Oregon head coach Mark Helfrich, who did not coach last season, makes his first step into the NFL as the Bears offensive coordinator. He acknowledged that Trubisky has thrown “too many” interceptions and turned the ball over too much in the early going of training camp. Regardless of which Bears QB’s play during the opening preseason game(s), there is a pretty complex playbook to learn as the players study new language, formations, protections and routes. Preseason is a learning process for many players and teams, and especially those with coaching changes and new systems in place.

We’ll address some preseason betting strategies at another time, but information is readily available with coaches commenting on players and rotations and what to expect as far as playing time. Follow the beat writers for teams as the information is also more readily available through Twitter and social media. Some coaches and teams will take preseason more seriously than others, just like sports bettors. That’s part of the handicapping and learning process.

Each team’s third preseason game essentially becomes their “dress rehearsal” for the regular season with starters playing more and the game a little more meaningful as coaches evaluate projected starters still battling for regular playing time. But the sharp handicappers and bettors that are on top of all the offseason information and player personnel are better equipped to put their early season game plan into play during the preseason. Those teams, coaching staffs along with handicappers and bettors that plan and prepare are better equipped to have success when the regular season begins and the games really count. You can bet on it.

Article posted at osga.com.