College Basketball Handicapping – Analysis Of A Winning Wager

Oregon Upsets Utah – Analysis Of A Winning Wager

We’re off yet another huge weekend of winners in college basketball, going 11-4 for Members Friday through Sunday including 4-1 on Top Plays.   Our Top Rated 20* Big Bertha plays are now 8-1 in February college basketball.  Very few of our free play write-ups on various sites made our card this weekend, but I’ve included Sunday’s winner below which made our members card and the analysis provided in the Oregon Ducks ( +6 ) upset over the Utah Utes, 69-58.

You’ll see I often include statistical analysis in my write-ups, and in this case noted some of the clear edges for Utah.  But as I’ve indicated in other recent articles including situational handicapping and the situations and emotions involved in Last Home Games ( LHG ), you start to understand and realize the importance of coaching, emotion and momentum in college basketball. We’re now in the final weeks of the regular season and while some teams are pushing for regular season conference titles and better positioning for conference tournament and postseason seedings, others are playing out the string with some teams having ‘tossed the towel’ on a disappointing campaign.  Some coaches are on their way out, and all this impacts emotions and performance for players and chemistry of teams, and I’ve noted this in some of my articles and game analysis.

Sunday was the Last Home Game for the Oregon Ducks, and they played with great energy and emotion against a league-leader.  Plenty more of these Last Home Games and other situations to support in the final weeks of the season, and if you don’t have the time, energy or ability to proficiently produce point spread winners, then join me for more victories and value and I’ll do the work, carry the bag and hit the big shots while you add more pars and birdies to your bankroll!

The Utes are tied for the Pac-12 lead at 11-2 following their 47-37 road win and cover at Oregon State Thursday night. That was the Beavers first home loss of the season and now the Utes have a tougher challenge at Oregon as a mid-single-digit favorite.  The Utes lost at UCLA at same price point and also at co-leader Arizona, but note Utah is the best money-maker in the nation the last 2 years at 38-14 ATS.  Utah has surged to the top under coach Larry Krystkowiak with a strong defense and veteran leadership and top play at the point from league MVP candidate Delon Wright ( 13 PPG ), who leads the league in assists, FT shooting ( 90% ) and is #2 in steals.

The Utes rank top-20 in adjusted efficiency offense and top-10 in effective FG% shooting. They hit a league-best 50% FG while taking the fewest shots on good shot selection. But it’s Utah’s defense that is so dominant ranking top-5 in the country in adjusted efficiency and effective FG% while holding Pac-12 opponents to 58 PPG on 38% shooting. Oregon has allowed the most shots in the league while holding foes to 42% FG. These are the top-2 Pac-12 teams in assist-to-turnover ratio.

Oregon senior guard Joseph Young leads the league in scoring at 20 PPG, but the Utes have their own strong perimeter power in Wright along with more solid shooting and ball handling from Brandon Taylor ( 11 PPG ). Add Dakarai Tucker into the back court mix and the Utes have the advantage.  Utah also holds a plus-3 rebounding margin over Oregon as 7-footer Jacob Poeltl leads the league in shooting at over 67% FG and pulls down over seven rebounds per game. He’s also #3 in blocked shots just behind Oregon freshman Jordan Bell. 

The Ducks will need strong games from forwards Elgin Cook and Dillon Brooks as they battle strong inside against the 7-footer Poeltl and Utah forward Jordan Loveridge ( 11 PPG ).  But with senior leader and scorer Joseph Young leading the way in the Ducks Last Home Game ( LHG ), we see a strong effort and performance by Oregon on their strong home court in front of over 6,600 frenzied fans at Knight Arena.  The Ducks are 16-2 on their home court this season and 65-10 the last four years.  Oregon beat Utah on the road in OT last season, and the Utes may well struggle to get out of Knight Arena unscathed.