NFL Week 4 Picks, Props And Parlays

October kicked off with NFL Week 4 Thursday night football and the Browns took down the Steelers as a small home underdog in a key AFC North contest in Cleveland to kick off our Week 4 tips, totals, teasers and trends report, which is initially posted at OSGA. The chaos continues with the Browns (3-1) in first place along with the Raiders (3-0) in the AFC West and Vikings (3-0) in the NFC North, who were also projected as last place division teams ahead of the 2026 NFL season. The Chiefs (3-0) and Raiders battle in Las Vegas to headline the NFL Week 4 picks and schedule, while the Jaguars (2-1) and Bengals (2-1) battle in the jungle in Cincinnati with both teams also looking to remain in first place.

NFL Underdogs and ATS Stats

Many Fairway followers recall our 7-year run hitting 57% ATS posting only NFL underdog picks at OSGA. While we changed our format with more coverage from tips, totals, teasers and trends along with picks, props and parlays, it’s still noteworthy and part of our weekly handicapping and research along with our box score and stats analysis to look for betting opportunities and outright wins on underdogs.

Home underdogs in particular are less popular public plays, despite often being more profitable including moneylines. The Browns Week 4 win Thursday makes home underdogs 7-9 SU and 9-7 ATS this season with Week 3 the best at 5-2 SU/ATS.

Sunday, Week 4 home underdogs include the Browns and Raiders in the AFC, along with the Giants, Buccaneers, Eagles and Panthers. The Commanders are an underdog in their designated ‘home’ game in London.

One of the reasons to add moneyline underdog bets to your portfolio is the added return. Also, from my proprietary data base and weekly box score stats I track in spread sheets, the straight up (SU) winner of a competitively priced NFL game (6 points or less) are 27-3-1 ATS this season. Either the underdog wins SU, or the favorite wins and covers with a vast majority of the time the spread not even coming into play. That doesn’t mean you shouldn’t just bet a bad number, say one that moves from -2.5 to -3, or -3 to -3.5 or -4, but you can reduce your wager or pass if you missed the best number.

Follow the NFL weather reports to anticipate market moves on game totals, and review the injury reports. I’ve updated injuries in the Lions/Panthers game and impacted out thoughts on the total.

NFL Week 4 Matchups and Odds

Betting lines and NFL odds from leading online sportsbooks with top payouts refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live betting.

Game	Favorite	Total
Indianapolis vs Washington	IND -4	48.5
New England at Buffalo	BUF -7	49
NY Jets at Chicago	CHI -3	43
Arizona at NY Giants	AZ -1	44
Dallas at Houston	HOU -3	48
Jacksonville at Cincinnati	CIN -2.5	51.5
Green Bay at Tampa Bay	GB -3.5	38.5
LA Rams at Philadelphia	LAR -3	42.5
Tennessee at Minnesota	MIN -11.5	42.5
Denver at San Francisco	DEN -2.5	48
Kansas City at Las Vegas	LV -4.5	48
LA Chargers at Seattle	SEA -7	42.5
Detroit at Carolina	DET -3.5	51
Atlanta at New Orleans	NO -2.5	48

NFL Week 4 select game analysis to be provided into the weekend along with any additional picks, opinions, stats, ATS and information you can bet on.

Our Week 2 picks went 5-2 ATS (3-1 picks, 2-1 opinions), and our Week 3 picks went 2-0, but 0-2 on opinions as we get fkd (again) with Rams blowing 16-0 halftime lead at Denver with a pick-6 and another blown call by the officials to rob the Rams. Our Week 3 ‘Dog parlay won, along with a 3-team teaser, and as mentioned in Week 3 picks report and figuring out football, refs and officials are one of the hazards of betting, along with injuries, which are mounting for more teams and many starting quarterbacks sidelined. Year to date NFL game/side picks posted at OSGA are 8-6 ATS (5-2 picks, 3-4 opinions).

NFL Week 4 Picks and Parlays

Picks: Raiders, Rams, Cowboys
Opinions: 49ers

3-team parlay: Rams, 49ers, Panthers
2-team ‘Dog parlay: Raiders, Cowboys

Check out my weekly Raiders selections and coverage from Las Vegas, which are 4-0 on sides and totals, 1-0 on player props and 1-1 on leans. I add the Raiders to our picks this week at OSGA.

We’re back on the Rams as road favorite this week (rare for us), and will update more matchups and stats of the Rams-Eagles game in Philadelphia over the weekend.

The Panthers host the Lions on Sunday night football, and we’re evaluating more Week 4 injuries and updates including on the 49ers-Broncos game, and knowing too Carolina lost both cornerbacks last week and are now on injured reserve (IR). We bet the over in the Lions-Panthers game and added to our weekly Tips, Totals, Teasers and Trends report.

Week 4 Player Props

DET-CAR: Lions WR Jameson Williams over 50.5 receiving yards on Sunday Night Football. Ladder up and over 60.5 yards at +132 and 70.5 yards at +194. Injuries to the Panthers secondary with two starting CB’s now out with injuries makes this a breakout game for Williams alongside St. Brown. RB Jahmyr Gibbs is also an opinion on receiving yards over 40.5 (+115). While Gibbs’ rushing yards is set high at mid 90’s, he’s likely to have a big game looking at Panthers personnel, injuries and recent game results including Week 1 on this field when the Bears piled up 59 points and the running backs combined for 224 rushing yards including 124 by Swift on 18 carries. Gibbs‘ O/U 135.5 combined rushing/receiving yards is an opinion if you prefer as well.

You can bet on it.