WGC FedEx St. Jude Odds and Picks

Delayed with travel and other coverage for this weeks WGC FedEx St Jude Invitational, which I previewed Sunday for TheLines.

I’ve since updated with Golfers to Watch beyond the leading favorites in the invitational 66 player field. This weeks big money event drew 48 of the top 50 players in the World Golf Rankings for the third edition of the World Golf Championships event at TPC Southwind in Memphis.

But this will also be the last WGC FedEx St. Jude Tournament, as the announcement this week of the Strategic Alliance between the European and PGA TOUR includes schedule changes next season.

As I reported at TheLines, the FedEx St. Jude Invitational will now be the leadoff event of the three tournament FedExCup Playoffs starting in 2022.

WGC FedEx St Jude Odds

this week in Memphis … pic.twitter.com/vmNYV9Lf9m

— Jeff Sherman (@golfodds) August 2, 2021

BetMGM wagering activity into Wednesday before opening round (subject to change)

Highest Ticket%

• Jordan Spieth 7.4%
• Brooks Koepka 6.7%
• Dustin Johnson 5.4%
• Daniel Berger 4.8%
• Collin Morikawa 4.5%

Highest Handle%

• Daniel Berger 13.4%
• Jordan Spieth 9.0%
• Brooks Koepka 8.1%
• Dustin Johnson 5.3%

COURSE AND TOURNAMENT INFORMATION

• Course: TPC Southwind
• Location: Memphis, TN
• Date: Aug 5-8, 2021
• Par: 70 / Yardage 7,237
• Purse: $10.5 Million / Winner $1.82 M
• Fairways/Rough: Zoysia / bermudagrass
• Greens: Champion ultradwarf bermudagrass
• TV: Golf Channel (Thurs-Sun) and CBS (Thurs-Sun 3-6pm ET)
• Twitter: @WGCFedEx

Golf course information, key golf stats and performance charts along with golfers to watch beyond the one below are part of the WGC FedEx St. Jude preview, In addition, check out this week’s FedEx St. Jude power rankings, which has some of the key stats in play this week.

Scoring and Stats

• 30% SG: Approach
• 20% Greens in Regulations Gained
• 20% SG: Off the Tee
• 10% Par 4: 450-500 yards
• 10% Proximity 150-175 yards
• 10% SG: Par 5

Best scoring average at TPC Southwind – 2010-2020, players with 10+ rounds played:@DanielBerger59, 67.7@DJohnsonPGA, 67.9@BKoepka, 68.1@PhilMickelson, 68.5@webbsimpson1, 68.5

— Justin Ray (@JustinRayGolf) August 4, 2021

Billy Horschel (+8500)

Fresh off his sponsorship of the APGA Tour Invitational, Billy Horschel heads to TPC Southwind as an undervalued underdog himself. Horschel finished T25 here last year and top 10 two years ago when he gained strokes across the board. He’s +190 for top-20 finish and +400 for top-10. Horschel’s current form could be better, but he’s made nine of his last 10 cuts and is solid on and around the greens where he excels on Bermudagrass, ranking top 16 over his last 36 rounds putting. In his last six World Golf Championship events, Billy has finished top 10 four times including winning the WGC-Match Play this year and finishing T2 a month early at the WGC-Workday event, both with Bermuda greens. The final approval for Horschel over the course is that he’s finished top-10 four other times in past St. Jude events at the course, and ranks top 10 in total strokes gained at TPC Southwind with a field-high 32 rounds.

Sam Burns (+8000)

Big hitting Sam Burns is falling down the odds board again. We cashed in at 100/1 on Burns in the Valspar Championship when he won on a similar layout at Innisbrook. His ball fade and strength on Bermuda can benefit again this week. Burns dominated strokes gained stats across the board at Innisbrook, and his strong play and form continued with a second-place finish the following week. He then fell off while dealing with a minor injury, but found his groove again at the Travelers and Scottish Open over the past month. The 25-year-old has had a breakout season and ranks top-10 in birdie average, and he’s gained strokes on approach in seven of his last eight U.S. events and has had four strong tee-to-green events since a week before winning the Valspar. Burns’ odds also reflect his lack of course form as he makes his debut in this WGC event.

WGC FedEx St. Jude Picks

Last year we cashed in a match-up winner on Corey Connors in the WGC FedEx St. Jude. He was also +12500 to win the event, and now Connors’ improved play  through this season has the Canadian between +4500 and +5500 to win as a capable longshot.

Fairway’s Favorites: Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson, Patrick Cantlay, Daniel Berger
Fairway’s Longshots: Tyrrell Hatton, Sergio Garcia, Billy Horschel, Wilco Nienaber (+40000)

Tournament Match-ups: Brooks Koepka (-105) over Louis Oosthuizen (BetMGM), Patrick Cantlay (-105) over Hideki Matsuyama (William Hill)

We were on target with our forecast and strong tourney projection of Longshot Charl Schwatzel at the 3M Open. He finished T2, but crushed our top matchup play with Stewart Cink missing the cut.. However, Louis Oosthuizen handed us another loss, so the tournament match-ups are now 20-10 in 2021.

Well fire with the against Oosthuisen again this week with the stronger player and proven performer at TPC Sothwind. Brooks Koepka ranks top-2 over 28 rounds at the course in total Strokes Gained stats at TPC Southwind.