Super Bowl 57 Picks And Props

A winning 2022 regular season (55%) of NFL underdog picks (70% in 2021) and 6-3 on NFL playoff Picks and Opinions (leans no good) leads us to Super Bowl 57 on Sunday, Feb. 12. Picks and props below, and we shoot for more winners after missing on the Rams (-4) in a 23-20 Super Bowl 56 win.

I’ve been traveling in paradise and not digging deep into props and additional Super Bowl coverage. But I did add Opinions on the side and total in my Super Bowl LVII coverage for Off Shore Gaming Association. I also chip in more Super Bowl LVII betting tips, trends and prop bets for Forbes.

Super Bowl 57 Picks

Opinions: Chiefs +1.5 to +2, ML and Over 50.5

Leading online sportsbooks are reporting  at least 2 out of every 3 spread bets are on the Eagles and 65% or more money on the Eagles.

Strength of Schedule

The Eagles played the 31st strength of schedule (SOS) this season (2nd easiest) and the Chiefs No. 16 according to Jeff Sagarin ratings. Prior to the season, the Chiefs schedule rated one of the toughest in the NFL based on opponents season win totals. In 13 Super Bowls with a strength of schedule (SOS) difference of 10 or more spots, the team that played the better and stronger schedule is 10-3 SU and 8-5 ATS.

Check out additional Eagles – Chiefs betting information and analytics that may help you with formulating other prop bets. From coverages, match-ups, personnel to pressure rates, there is real data to assist you more than your buddy who spews out other opinions without accuracy. I’ve reviewed more to determine how the game will play out in assisting me with a few additional prop bets, but much more limited for Super Bowl LVII as I’ve been unavailable for extended time leading up to the Big Game.

Prop Bets

Tip: WR DeVonta Smith Over 63.5 receiving yards

Stats and information from Sharp Football Analysis.

According to TruMedia, Kansas City uses two-high safeties at the league’s highest rate (54.8%) and offenses typically attack that formation differently than single-high safety coverage.

In Philly’s case, Smith is the primary beneficiary of two-high coverage, based on his target share data from TruMedia:

  • 24.9% target share versus single-high
  • 28.6% target share versus two-high

The impact in target share is more noticeable when looking at his performance in games with a high usage of two-high coverage.

The Eagles have played four games this season with the defense in two-high coverage at least 40% of the time per TruMedia. Here’s a look at Smith’s numbers in those games:

  • Week 2 vs. MIN: 7 catches on 7 targets for 80 yards
  • Week 13 vs TEN:5 catches on 8 targets for 102 yards
  • Week 16 vs. DAL: 8 catches on 12 targets for 113 yards
  • Week 17 vs. NO: 8 catches on 13 targets for 115 yards

That’s three 100-yard performances in four games featuring heavy usage of two-high coverage, and QB Jalen Hurts did not play due to a shoulder injury in Week 16 and Week 17. In Smith’s other 15 games (postseason included), he’s had just two 100-yard outputs.

Any additional updates including prop bets to be updated ahead of Super Bowl 57.

Author: FairwayJay is a leading national sports betting analyst, writer, handicapper and sports betting insider providing insight and information you can bet on for nearly two decades from Las Vegas. He chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events for leading media and sports betting sites and companies. Follow him on X (Twitter): @FairwayJay