PGA Tournament Match-ups 17-5
Golf Betting Insight, Tournament Match-ups 17-5 in 2021 and Analysis of a Winning Wager
Memorial Day has arrived, along with the unofficial start of summer. As the weather heats up, we continue our birdie binge and fire at the flags with a strong tee-to-green game on our PGA tournament match-ups.
Following another winner on Lucas Glover (+130) as a sizeable underdog in the Charles Schwab Challenge, our posted tournament match-up record is 17-5 this year.
Here was the analysis on the Lucas Glover tournament match-up winner over Ryan Palmer. Glover (145/1) was also on our ‘Fairway Longshot’ list along with Brian Harman, and both finished top-10 at Colonial for a +1200 return on Glover.
Lucas Glover (+130) vs Ryan Palmer (BetMGM)
- This match-up is closer to even then +130 underdog of Lucas Glover. The stat profiles of SG: Ball Striking, Approach and Short Game are essentially identical over each of the players last 36 rounds. But Glover is significantly better Around the Green, and also better Tee-to-Green, where he’s gained strokes in seven straight events. Glover is top-30 in this field over his last 36 rounds in Tee-to-Green, Ball Striking, Around the Green. Those stats all improve to top-10 on Bentgrass green courses like Colonial, and his Off-the-Tee ranks top-25. Glover’s weakness of Putting is not as big of an issue this week on flatter putting surfaces, and he’s also better on Bentgrass. Palmer is a large favorite because he’s finished top-10 in three of his last seven starts at Colonial. He’s also missed the cut three times, and is in poor current form. Palmer has finished outside the top-45 in two recent events prior to missing the cut last week at the PGA Championship. It may seem like he’ll bounce back at Colonial, but he’s lost strokes on Approach and Around the Green in three straight events. Take the value and let the shots fall where they may.
I chip-in each week with early tournament previews and coverage at TheLines – like the the Memorial Tournament at Jack’s place – Muirfield Village in Ohio. I add more golf betting insight, players to watch, stats, odds and of course select tournament match-ups and information you can bet on. Additional podcasts are planned, and I chipped-in a short tournmement match-ups podcast for the PGA Championship.
Here is the tournament match-ups and 17-5 record from January through May of the 2021 PGA Tour season. Links to the golf articles and picks are posted on these pages at Vegas Sports Zone, and a chart with the picks and odds is below.
| Tournament | Golfer Match-up | Picks & Odds | Won/Loss | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sony Open | Russell Henley vs Adam Scott | Henley -115 | Won | |
| The American Express | 1 Zach Johnson vs Phil Mickelson 2 Brian Harman vs Ryan Moore 3 Abraham Ancer vs Patrick Cantlay | Johnson -120 Harman -120 Ancer +113 | Won, Won, Loss | |
| Farmers Insurance Open | 1 Sungjae Im vs Marc Leishman 2 Sam Burns vs Mackenzie Hughes | Im -130 Burns -110 | Loss, Won | |
| Phoenix Open | Russell Henley vs Si Woo Kim | Henley -130 | Won | |
| The Genesis Invitational | 1 Lanto Griffin (-115) vs Brenden Todd 2 Carlos Ortiz vs Abraham Ancer | Griffin -115 Ortiz +100 | Won, Push | |
| WGC - Workday | 1 Will Zalatoris vs Max Homa 2 Rory McIlroy vs Tony Finau 3 Viktor Hovland +105 vs Tony Finau | Zalatoris -135 McIlroy -125 Hovland +105 | Push, Won, Won | |
| Arnold Palmer Invitational | Will Zalatoris vs Kevin Kisner | Zalatoris -145 | Won | |
| THE PLAYERS Championship | 1 Justin Thomas vs Viktor Hovland 2 Tommy Fleetwood vs Tyrrell Hatton | Thomas -112 Fleetwood -105 | Won, Lost | |
| The Honda Classic | Matt Wallace vs Martin Kaymer | Wallace -130 | Won | |
| Valero Texas Open | Chris Kirk vs Branden Grace | Kirk -132 | Won | |
| The Masters | 1 Justin Thomas vs Dustin Johnson 2 Matt Fitzpatrick vs Tommy Fleetwood | Thomas +100 Fitzpatrick -140 | Won, Won | |
| RBC Heritage | Cameron Smith (+105) vs Corey Connors | Smith +105 | Lost | |
| Valspar Championship | Jason Kokrak vs Kevin Kisner | Kokrak -145 | Won | |
| AT&T Byron Nelson | Thomas Pieters vs Antoine Rozner | Pieters -125 | Push | |
| PGA Championship | 1 Hovland vs Reed 2 Hatton vs Fleetwood | Hovland -155 Hatton -130 | Lost, Won | |
| Charles Schwab Challenge | Lucas Glover vs Ryan Palmer | Glover +130 | Won | |
The tournament match-up record is now 17-5 since the start of 2021 and the Sony Open. That includes another winner last week at the Charles Schwab Challenge, which followed the PGA Championship, where we locked in a match-up winner by the weekend and appeared to have the sweep before Reed made the cut on the number and then overcame a 5-shot deficit. We also had a recent outright winner at 100/1 odds at the Valspar Championship with Sam Burns, and was on a 9-1 run at one point into the RBC Heritage at Harbour Town in April.
That included a 2-0 match-up results at The Masters, a 4-0 run since the Honda Classic, where we had longshot Matt Wallace as a match-up winner by the weekend, and 5-1 since The PLAYERS Championship when we had Justin Thomas as both the outright winner and tournament match-up winner. Continuing a 6-1 run since Will Zalatoris (+4500) delivered a top-10 finish as a golfer to watch and another match-up winner for us in the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and 8-1 since the WGC Workday with two more match-up winners (plus a push), and a golfer to watch in Collin Morikawa (+4500) who won the tournament outright. Finally, the run was 9-1 back to the Genesis Invitational at Riviera where we whacked another easy match-up winner (plus a push) when our opponent missed the cut.
Many weeks I post four ‘Fairway Favorites’ and four ‘Fairway Longshots’ for betting options in the outright win and top finishing position market. I add ‘Golfers to Watch’ at longer odds who can payout more, but the focus is on tournament match-ups that offer a greater chance to win and produce profit.
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Hope you enjoy the tee-to-green coverage, and you can chip-in or reach me directly to discuss more, get on my bag or offer suggestions and ideas.
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