PGA Tournament Match-ups 17-5

Golf Betting Insight, Tournament Match-ups 17-5 in 2021 and Analysis of a Winning Wager

Memorial Day has arrived, along with the unofficial start of summer. As the weather heats up, we continue our birdie binge and fire at the flags with a strong tee-to-green game on our PGA tournament match-ups.

Following another winner on Lucas Glover (+130) as a sizeable underdog in the Charles Schwab Challenge, our posted tournament match-up record is 17-5 this year.

Here was the analysis on the Lucas Glover tournament match-up winner over Ryan Palmer. Glover (145/1) was also on our ‘Fairway Longshot’ list along with Brian Harman, and both finished top-10 at Colonial for a +1200 return on Glover.

Lucas Glover (+130) vs Ryan Palmer (BetMGM)

  • This match-up is closer to even then +130 underdog of Lucas Glover. The stat profiles of SG: Ball Striking, Approach and Short Game are essentially identical over each of the players last 36 rounds. But Glover is significantly better Around the Green, and also better Tee-to-Green, where he’s gained strokes in seven straight events. Glover is top-30 in this field over his last 36 rounds in Tee-to-Green, Ball Striking, Around the Green. Those stats all improve to top-10 on Bentgrass green courses like Colonial, and his Off-the-Tee ranks top-25. Glover’s weakness of Putting is not as big of an issue this week on flatter putting surfaces, and he’s also better on Bentgrass. Palmer is a large favorite because he’s finished top-10 in three of his last seven starts at Colonial. He’s also missed the cut three times, and is in poor current form. Palmer has finished outside the top-45 in two recent events prior to missing the cut last week at the PGA Championship. It may seem like he’ll bounce back at Colonial, but he’s lost strokes on Approach and Around the Green in three straight events. Take the value and let the shots fall where they may.   

I chip-in each week with early tournament previews and coverage at TheLines – like the the Memorial Tournament at Jack’s place – Muirfield Village in Ohio. I add more golf betting insight, players to watch, stats, odds and of course select tournament match-ups and information you can bet on. Additional podcasts are planned, and I chipped-in a short tournmement match-ups podcast for the PGA Championship.

Here is the tournament match-ups and 17-5 record from January through May of the 2021 PGA Tour season. Links to the golf articles and picks are posted on these pages at Vegas Sports Zone, and a chart with the picks and odds is below.

Tournament Golfer Match-upPicks & OddsWon/Loss 
Sony OpenRussell Henley vs Adam ScottHenley -115Won
The American Express1 Zach Johnson vs Phil Mickelson
2 Brian Harman vs Ryan Moore
3 Abraham Ancer vs Patrick Cantlay
Johnson -120
Harman -120
Ancer +113
Won, Won, Loss
Farmers Insurance Open1 Sungjae Im vs Marc Leishman
2 Sam Burns vs Mackenzie Hughes
Im -130
Burns -110
Loss, Won
Phoenix OpenRussell Henley vs Si Woo KimHenley -130Won
The Genesis Invitational1 Lanto Griffin (-115) vs Brenden Todd
2 Carlos Ortiz vs Abraham Ancer
Griffin -115
Ortiz +100
Won, Push
WGC - Workday1 Will Zalatoris vs Max Homa
2 Rory McIlroy vs Tony Finau
3 Viktor Hovland +105 vs Tony Finau
Zalatoris -135
McIlroy -125
Hovland +105
Push, Won, Won
Arnold Palmer Invitational Will Zalatoris vs Kevin KisnerZalatoris -145Won
THE PLAYERS Championship1 Justin Thomas vs Viktor Hovland
2 Tommy Fleetwood vs Tyrrell Hatton
Thomas -112
Fleetwood -105
Won, Lost
The Honda ClassicMatt Wallace vs Martin KaymerWallace -130Won
Valero Texas OpenChris Kirk vs Branden GraceKirk -132Won
The Masters1 Justin Thomas vs Dustin Johnson
2 Matt Fitzpatrick vs Tommy Fleetwood
Thomas +100
Fitzpatrick -140
Won, Won
RBC HeritageCameron Smith (+105) vs Corey ConnorsSmith +105Lost
Valspar ChampionshipJason Kokrak vs Kevin KisnerKokrak -145Won
AT&T Byron NelsonThomas Pieters vs Antoine RoznerPieters -125Push
PGA Championship1 Hovland vs Reed
2 Hatton vs Fleetwood
Hovland -155
Hatton -130
Lost, Won
Charles Schwab ChallengeLucas Glover vs Ryan PalmerGlover +130Won

The tournament match-up record is now 17-5 since the start of 2021 and the Sony Open. That includes another winner last week at the Charles Schwab Challenge, which followed the PGA Championship, where we locked in a match-up winner by the weekend and appeared to have the sweep before Reed made the cut on the number and then overcame a 5-shot deficit. We also had a recent outright winner at 100/1 odds at the Valspar Championship with Sam Burns, and was on a 9-1 run at one point into the RBC Heritage at Harbour Town in April.

Tournament Match-upsThat included a 2-0 match-up results at The Masters, a 4-0 run since the Honda Classic, where we had longshot Matt Wallace as a match-up winner by the weekend, and 5-1 since The PLAYERS Championship when we had Justin Thomas as both the outright winner and tournament match-up winner. Continuing a 6-1 run since Will Zalatoris (+4500) delivered a top-10 finish as a golfer to watch and another match-up winner for us in the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and 8-1 since the WGC Workday with two more match-up winners (plus a push), and a golfer to watch in Collin Morikawa (+4500) who won the tournament outright. Finally, the run was 9-1 back to the Genesis Invitational at Riviera where we whacked another easy match-up winner (plus a push) when our opponent missed the cut.

Many weeks I post four ‘Fairway Favorites’ and four ‘Fairway Longshots’ for betting options in the outright win and top finishing position market. I add ‘Golfers to Watch’ at longer odds who can payout more, but the focus is on tournament match-ups that offer a greater chance to win and produce profit.

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Hope you enjoy the tee-to-green coverage, and you can chip-in or reach me directly to discuss more, get on my bag or offer suggestions and ideas.

Author: FairwayJay is a leading national sports betting analyst, writer, handicapper and sports betting insider providing insight and information you can bet on for nearly two decades from Las Vegas. He chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events for leading media and sports betting sites and companies. Follow him on Twitter: @FairwayJay