Betting Market Report For Corales Puntacana Championship
Following on the heals of the U.S. Open and competing against the NFL, this week’s Corales Puntacana Championship will likely be the least bet PGA Tour events since the restart in June.
But that doesn’t mean there’s not money to be made, and I chip-in with odds and a market report from leading legal U.S. sportsbooks DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM.
As a sports betting contact and media member, I correspond with those companies, account managers and sportsbook directors along with other sportsbook personnel in Las Vegas to provide information you can bet on. Along with this week’s Corales Puntacana Championship preview and betting odds at TheLines, I chip-in added insight, player profiles and betting market data you can use as you manage your game when betting on the PGA Tour.
CORALES PUNTACANA CHAMPIONSHIP BETTING MARKET SPLITS
Low scores will be in abundance, with moderate wind projected although there is always some on these coastal courses. The betting favorite this week is little-known 24-year-old Will Zalatoris (+1400), who just finished T6 at the U.S. Open and has been a dominant player on the Korn Ferry Tour. He’s playing this week on a sponsors invitation.
The most money to win is on Mackenzie Hughes, who has taken more than 35% of the total handle. His odds are +1600 across the board after opening +2000 at DraftKings.
Player odds to win and finish top-10 at DraftKings
The golfer taking the next most money at BetMGM is down the odds board. Kristoff Ventura (+4000) has taken 12.83% of the money wagered to win and is tied with Zalatoris and Henrik Stenson (+3500) with 6.85% of the bets to win.
Will Zalatoris has still taken 5.46% of the total handle despite low odds to win. Defending champion Graeme McDowell has odds of +5000 at BetMGM but +9000 at DraftKings.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Prior to finishing T6 finish at the U.S. Open, Zalatoris had registered 10 straight top-20 finishes on the Korn Ferry Tour since the restart in June. His upward trajectory includes a victory and eight top-10 finishes while leading the Korn Ferry in scoring average (68.44). In this field, he boasts the best total Strokes Gained numbers over his last 24 rounds. His weakness? Putting and short game, which makes him not worth the risk at low odds. Zalatoris is tops in Birdies or Better gained, and he’s playing this week on a sponsors exemption and is the favorite to win. That’s noteworthy.
Burns is No. 2 in this field in total Strokes Gained his last 24 rounds with top-5 rankings and strength in Tee-to-Green, Off-the-Tee and Ball Striking. His solid statistical profile includes a quality approach game with decent short game and putting stats that rank just outside the top-30. Burns has finished top-30 in five of his last seven PGA Tour events including a most recent 7th place finish at the Safeway Open. He also finished T13 FedExCup Standings, which is second best in this field behind Brian Stuard (+5000). Burns finished T12 in last year’s Corales Puntacana Championship at Corales Golf Course.
The most popular and by far the most bet player this week is Mackenzie Hughes, who has an impeccable short game. His Strokes Gained Putting numbers are best in this field, and also Around the Green stats are No. 2 over his last 24 rounds as well. Hughes’ total Strokes Gained stats are top-10 in this field his last 24 rounds with only his Off-the-Tee stats subpar. Hughes finished runner-up in this event last year and he’s generated a whopping 35.74% of the handle to win this week at BetMGM. Hughes missed the cut at last week’s U.S. Open, but had a strong run through the FedExCup Playoffs with top-15 finishes in all three events including the BMW Championship and Tour Championship.
Will Gordon is a strong driver of the ball ranking top-20 in distance and accuracy. Over his last 24 rounds, his total Strokes Gained numbers rank number 11 in this field and he’s No. 3 in SG Off-the-Tee and top-10 in Ball Striking. He’s been a bit hit and miss since the restart, but did tie for 3rd at the Travelers Championship shooting 17-under par and finishing 2-shots behind winner Dustin Johnson. Gordon also tied for 10th the end of last year in the RSM Classic which is played on another coastal course.
Ventura tied for 13th in the recent FedExCup Standings, and he’s taking more bets and No. 2 in handle with his strong Birdies or Better profile ranking No. 3 in this field. Ventura’s total Strokes Gained ranks No. 3 in this field over his last 24 rounds, and his best odds to win are +4000 at both DraftKings and BetMGM.
Players who finished best in last years Mayakoba Golf Classic with similar seaside grass strain include Adam Long (T2) and Pat Perez (T8), who are both top-12 in total Strokes Gained in this field over their last 24 rounds. Perez is top-5 in both number of bets and total handle at BetMGM.
Fairway’s Foursome: Sam Burns (+2000), Will Gordon (+6600 MGM), Sam Ryder (+10000 MGM/DK) and Adam Long (+2800 Circa)
Tournament Match-up: Xinjun Xhang (-110) over Kyle Stanley. If you can locate Ventura over Perez, bet that as well. Tournament match-up record on these pages since restart in June through rest of 2020 season was 9-4. Last week 1-2 in U.S. Open.