Week 3 Betting NFL Underdogs

Fairway’s Football Forecast and Focus on NFL Underdogs

Throughout the NFL season, we’ll post pro football plays and parlays with a focus on underdogs. Like our weekly college football parlay for profit underdog picks and plays, we’ll take a similar approach in the NFL. However, with fewer games each week, finding four underdogs to join Fairway’s Foursome is far more challenging. Still, we’ll Chip-in our thoughts and analysis, and perhaps modify our Course management along the way.

Week 2 finished 2-2 on these pages, although it was better for us with a slight favorite winner on the Titans and a top total winner in the Seahawks 12-9 snoozer over the 49ers. Close contests and ATS finishes are common in the NFL, and I encourage you to do your best throughout each week to anticipate line moves and bet the best numbers. With so many offshore options and leading online sportsbooks to choose from and compare, it should be reasonable to expect using due diligence in your search for the best numbers.

Risk vs. reward and searching for value is something bettors should shoot for in their pursuit of profit. Competitively-priced underdogs are always worth examining, as many of these barking ‘Dogs can not only have your wager secured in the later stages of a football game, but some will also have a solid shot to win outright.

Check out the current lines, odds and scores from Las Vegas sports books.

Thus, money line wagers should also be part of your betting portfolio when you bet on more competitively-priced underdogs, as the payoffs can be very rewarding.

In the NFL, competitively-priced underdogs are 6-points or less. We’ll add in some bigger ‘Dogs along the way, but note too you can evaluate these selected teams and consider using them in your straight wagers and parlays without money lines. It’s very difficult to hit an underdog money line parlay. But we’ll provide the potential payoffs with a small wager each week along with a straight parlay. Straight win wagers are a far more prudent play, but I know from experience that bettors like a bigger score with less risk and want to parlay their profits.

So join Fairway’s Foursome and follow along as we fire for the Flag and go for the Green in our weekly pursuit of profit (doggy style) with Fairway’s Football Forecast.

This week’s picks and plays – Shop lines at the leading offshore sports books.

462     Jacksonville (+4) vs Baltimore in London – Jaguars Money Line +170

470     Buffalo (+3) vs Denver – Bills Money Line +145

478     Detroit (+3) vs Atlanta – Lions Money Line +140

490     Arizona (+3) vs Dallas – Cardinals Money line +145

$20 4-Team Money Line Parlay = $758

$20 4-Team Parlay = $220

$200 – Suggested side wagers with $40 Money Line are suggestions for this sample. $1,000 in play each week.

Baltimore vs Jacksonville – This game is being played at Wembley Stadium in London; the first of four NFL contests in England – where betting is convenient, legal and regulated! Many football fans in the U.S. will be betting on the 2-0 Ravens – illegally! A beat down of the Browns, in a game the Ravens were out-gained 386-335 by a clueless rookie QB (3 INTs) making his first start (2-11 third down), hardly provides confidence this week. Neither does Baltimore’s week 1 win at Cincinnati in which the Ravens gained 268 yards at 4.5 yards per play. The Jaguars won ugly at Houston in Week 1 with their own sub-par offense but did rush the ball 39 times for 155 yards. Last week, 3 turnovers and more QB Bortles issues were a concern in a home loss to Tennessee. But the Jaguars defense is improved and solid, and note this travel situation favors Jacksonville, who has played this game in London each of the past four seasons and winning the last two years. Baltimore travels across the pond for the first time, and also has huge rival Pittsburgh up next following their opening two division contests. In another game that looks like it will lack big plays or sustained drives to produce points, we side with the Jaguars.

Denver at Buffalo – A most impressive 42-17 beating of the Cowboys last week has the public reaching into their other pocket to bet more this week on the Broncos. Now 2-0 taking advantage of the early season home field and altitude at Mile High, Denver travels East to Buffalo for their first road trip of the season. The Bills offense was grounded to a week-low 176 yards in last week’s 9-3 loss at Carolina, a game they just missed winning on a last-second dropped pass near the goal line. But recall in week 1 at home, the Bills rushed 42 times for 190 yards, and RB McCoy and the offense should bounce back this week even against the Broncos top-tier defense. Most sports fans are not in tune with how difficult it can be to play in Buffalo, and especially for a young or inexperienced quarterback that has not played in the stadium or environment. That’s the case for Broncos QB Simien, who has impressed thus far this season. The Bills led the league in rushing last season at 164 YPG, and they will have more plays and possessions than last week’s game when Buffalo had the ball for just 21 minutes. Quarterback Taylor will need to protect the ball, and he did not have a turnover last week. The Bills also sacked QB Newton six times last week and have a strong defensive front and pass rush that has held its first two opponents to 115 rushing yards at 2.7 YPR. Denver’s left tackle was injured and likely misses this game, making it a greater challenge to run the ball and protect QB Siemien. In a game that figures to have less scoring and points at a premium, we side with the Bills knowing too that Denver has big division rival Oakland up next and the Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last four visits to Buffalo.

Atlanta at Detroit – The Falcons try to fly to another victory and complete the opening-season trifecta against the NFC North opponents. Last week Atlanta put a beating on Green Bay 34-23 on Sunday night football with a +2 turnover advantage. The balanced attack was in contrast to opening week when the Falcons rushed for just 64 yards and the passing game carried Atlanta to a 23-17 non-covering win when its defense came up big at the end of the game. Now Atlanta travels to Detroit, who is also 2-0 and returns home on a short week off a Monday night ‘Dog win. But that victory sets up Detroit in a proven, positive profile as a ‘Dog again this week, and QB Stafford will be aided by a much-improved Detroit defense early this season and a running game that has rushed the ball 59 times in two games with some success not seen in recent seasons. Atlanta fits a number of negative ATS situations and profiles this week, and Detroit is 5-0 SU its last five games vs. NFC South teams. The Lions also fit a very strong ATS angle as a playoff team last year now being slighted as a non-division home ‘Dog.

Dallas at Arizona – Check the Cardinals injuries beyond RB David Johnson, who is out. Arizona suffered a letdown last week, but escaped Indy 16-13 in OT in their least-important game of the season. Now home for their opener under the Monday night lights, expect a big effort and better performance by this talented team that has not shown near its best in its first two games. But Dallas got destroyed last week at Denver, and the vaunted Cowboys running game was shut down to just 40 yards on 14 attempts. A second-straight road game off the Mile High will be tough, and QB Prescott will see plenty of stunts and blitzes along with a solid secondary led by Patterson. The Cardinals defense has held both its two opponents to below average numbers, despite being on the field for 35 minutes opening week when the offense turned the ball over four times at Detroit. The Cowboys are 0-4 SU/ATS in this series and have not won in three tries in Glendale. Make it four.

Best wishes in your pursuit of profit and may all your ‘Dogs deliver the Green.

Check out the leading online sportsbooks,  including those with reduced juice, and this article posted at osga.com.