Week 2 Betting NFL Underdogs

Fairway’s Football Forecast and Focus on NFL Underdogs

Throughout the NFL season, we’ll post pro football plays and parlays with a focus on underdogs. Like our weekly college football parlay for profit underdog picks and plays, we’ll take a similar approach in the NFL. However, with fewer games each week, finding four underdogs to join Fairway’s Foursome is far more challenging. Still, we’ll Chip-in our thoughts and analysis, and perhaps modify our Course management along the way.

Week 1 was a winning one as we posted a 3-1 ATS result. Yes some close contests and finishes both SU and ATS, which is common in the NFL. We evaluate the games, box scores and go Inside the Numbers each week to dig deeper into the stats, game flow and results. Do your best throughout each week to anticipate line moves and bet the best numbers. With so many offshore options and leading online sportsbooks to choose from and compare, it should be reasonable to expect using due diligence in your search for the best numbers and even reduced juice sportsbooks.

Risk vs. reward and searching for value is something bettors should shoot for in their pursuit of profit. Competitively-priced underdogs are always worth examining, as many of these barking ‘Dogs can not only have your wager secured in the later stages of a football game, but some will also have a solid shot to win outright.

Check out the current lines, odds and scores from Las Vegas sports books.

Thus, money line wagers should also be part of your betting portfolio when you bet on more competitively-priced underdogs, as the payoffs can be very rewarding.

In the NFL, competitively-priced underdogs are 6-points or less. We’ll add in some bigger ‘Dogs along the way, but note too you can evaluate these selected teams and consider using them in your straight wagers and parlays without money lines. It’s very difficult to hit an underdog money line parlay. But we’ll provide the potential payoffs with a small wager each week along with a straight parlay. Straight win wagers are a far more prudent play, but I know from experience that bettors like a bigger score with less risk and want to parlay their profits.

So join Fairway’s Foursome and follow along as we fire for the Flag and go for the Green in our weekly pursuit of profit (doggy style) with Fairway’s Football Forecast.

We’re stepping out this week with some bigger ‘Dogs. Only one would qualify as competitive at 6-points or less, and as suggested, side wagers are the most prudent plays.

This week’s picks and plays – Shop lines at the leading offshore sports books.

265     Buffalo (+7) at Carolina – Bills Money Line +260

268     New Orleans (+6.5) vs New England – Saints Money Line +220

273     Minnesota (+6) at Pittsburgh – Vikings Money Line +215

285     San Francisco (+14) at Seattle – 49ers Money line +665

$20 4-Team Money Line Parlay = $5,532

$20 4-Team Parlay = $220

$200 – Suggested side wagers with $40 Money Line are suggestions for this sample. $1,000 in play each week.

Buffalo at Carolina – Positives for the Bills in their 21-12 win over the lowly Jets last week showed a strong, balanced attack with 190 yards rushing on 42 attempts and over 400 yards total offense. Buffalo’s running game was No. 1 in the NFL last season at 164 YPG behind RB McCoy, and tied with Dallas with the most rushing attempts per game (31). Clearly a tougher test this week on the road against a stronger Panther, who prowled and plunked the 49ers last week on the road 23-3. Still, QB Newton was not too sharp in his return from surgery, and the Panthers offense was very sub-par with less than 290 yards offense at 4.6 yards per play. This line suggests Carolina is a superior team, but is that really the case? Not from our viewpoint. New Buffalo head coach McDermott was on Carolina’s staff the past six seasons and most recently as the Panthers defensive coordinator. That has to help in preparation, especially against the Carolina offense with Newton being sacked more than any QB in the league since 2011. As long as turnovers are minimized and QB Taylor doesn’t cough it up at Carolina, this should be a close contest, and one the Bills could win despite the public’s perception. Points likely at a premium with less scoring than expected.

Minnesota at Pittsburgh – The Vikings were victorious Monday night 29-19 and very impressive in dispatching the Saints 29-19. Minnesota’s offense ranked No. 2 in Week 1 in Adjusted EPA (Expected Points Added), an advanced football analytics metric. Bradford tossed 3 TDs and the balanced attack with nearly 400 yards offense showcased rooking RB Dalvin Cook’s breakout potential. Much tougher for the purple people this week on a short week at Pittsburgh, but the Vikings can turn to their stronger defense in a game where more passing than running is projected. The Steelers offense was sluggish in last week’s 21-18 road win at lowly Cleveland, in fact they rushed for just 35 yards and had less than 300 yards offense as the Browns ran more plays and had more first downs in defeat. Vikings head coach Zimmer knows how to prepare and defend the Steelers offense and trio of terrific weapons having served as Cincinnati’s defensive coordinator for years. The Vikings are 10-2 ATS vs. the AFC under Zimmer, including 6-0 ATS on the road. Add in QB Bradford’s success on the road vs. AFC opponents going 7-2 SU and 9-0 ATS and we have a money-making opportunity on a ‘Dog than can deliver. But must check injuries and status with some key Vikings listed as questionable, including QB Bradford. He’s nearly certain to play, but would gladly grab extra points if QB Case Keenum has to start.

New England at New Orleans – We cashed in with the Chiefs in their opening night upset of the powerful Patriots. Now the Super Bowl champs travel to another week 1 losing team as the Saints didn’t get it done at Minnesota Monday night. New Orleans still had above average offense numbers with 5.8 yards per play and 344 total yards, but QB Brees and his boys managed just 1 TD in five trips into the red zone. The Saints running game never got untracked, but did you see the Patriots defense in Week 1? They allowed 185 rushing yards and New England had the worst Adjusted EPA performance by any defense in Week 1. Problem is that the Saints defense was very deficient with the 2^nd worst Adjusted EPA in Week 1 behind the Patriots. Perhaps that’s why this total is a week-high 56. Two future Hall of Fame QB’s should put on a show inside the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, but we’re not betting on any Patriots bounce back or counting on them putting it on cruise control. Brady did not play well at QB going 16/36 in Week 1, yet the public and media dismiss it and still believe he’s going to put up big numbers at age 40. Spotting a TD on the road is a tall order, even for the Patriots this week as an overpriced team based on perception. The reality may sink in with another upset, and we wouldn’t be surprised to see New England fall to 0-2. Well aware that Belichick and Brady are 18-2 SU off a SU loss as favorite since 2002. They also nearly ‘never’ lose at home like they did in embarrassing fashion in Week 1. Some solid ATS situations against the Super Bowl champions this week suggest the Saints are the side and we’ll bite.

San Francisco at Seattle – Lets keep this one short. A blowout is expected by the public with the linemaker making Seattle a 14-point favorite. That despite the Seahawks having a bottom-tier offensive line and just 225 yards offense opening week at Green Bay. But everyone saw San Francisco dump in Week 1, as the 49ers offense was anemic with 217 yards at 4.0 yards per play at home – the worst Adjusted EPA per play offensive performance in Week 1. It looks like it will take some time to learn and adjust to new head coach Shanahan’s offense with new QB Hoyer. Division game with some ATS situations support the 49ers with Seattle off a loss, and did you see the Seahawks touchdowns last week? No you didn’t. They didn’t have any. Seattle is 11-1 ATS vs. the 49ers in the past 12 meetings including 6-0 ATS on this field. If it was just this easy, we would be rolling in the dough. Contrary call on sad San Francisco.

Best wishes in your pursuit of profit and may all your ‘Dogs deliver the Green.

Check out the leading online sportsbooks,  including those with reduced juice, and this article posted at osga.com.