U.S. Open 2025 Golf Odds, Picks And Preview at Oakmont

It’s major championship week for golf’s most demanding challenge at the U.S. Open 2025 golf event. I provide tee-to-green coverage of the tournament including course insite and players odds plus picks and matchups as you watch and wager on the toughest tournament of the year.

Check out my U.S. Open golf coverage and updates at Off Shore Gaming Association and additional picks and information you can bet on below.

U.S. Open 2025 Golf Odds

Leading favorites odds to win the 2025 U.S. Open from Circa Sports, along with additional information you can bet on. Odds subject to change. 

• +305: Scheffler
• +750: DeChambeau
• +1350: Rahm
• +1600: McIlroy
•  +1900: Schauffele
• +2400: Aberg
• +2650: Morikawa
• +2900: Niemann
• +3400: Fleetwood
• +3600: Lowry
• +4400: Straka
• +4500: Thomas
• +4700: Cantlay
• +5400: Conners
• +5500: Hovland
• +6600: Matsuyama
• +6700: Spieth
• +6800: Henley
• +71oo: Bradley, Burns
• +7500: Hatton, Griffin

72-hole Over/Under winning score: 278.5 (Par 70)

The over/under of number of golfers to finish under par over 72 holes is 4.5.

Key Stats

Total Driving (Distance + Accuracy)
SG: Total (Difficult scoring)
SG: Approach
SG: Tee-to-Green (focus Recent Form)
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting (Fast Greens)
Bogey Avoidance (Difficult Scoring Conditions)

From my contacts at GolfStats, 44 of the 156 players have never played in the U.S. Open. Last year, the number at Pinehurst was 36.

Bentgrass fairways, Kentucky Bluegrass rough (4+ inches), Poa Annua oversized greens (ave. 8,500 sq. feet) and lightning fast 14 on stimpmeter.

The 7,372 yard par 70 is 153 yards longer than when Oakmont hosted the 2016 U.S. Open and the average score was 73.56 and the birdie average was 2.35 per round..

Little known fact: Jack Nicklaus’ first PGA Tour win was at the 1962 U.S. Open.

U.S. Open 2025 Golf Picks

Fairway’s Favorites: Rahm, Aberg, Morikawa, Hovland, Fleetwood
Fairway’s Longshots: Hatton, Berger, Pendrith, Young, R. Hojgaard

Tournament Match-ups: Rahm (+119) over DeChambeau and +200 over Scheffler (BookMaker)
T. Olesen (-122) over Leishman (+102) – Circa
Aberg (+100) over Schauffele (-125) – BetMGM
Hovland (-105) over Straka (-118) – BetMGM
Young (-110) over Reed (+100) – BetMGM

Round 1 match-up: Morikawa (+180) over Scheffler (-210) – Circa

See more picks at OSGA, and check out the featured groups Thursday/Friday and coverage on NBC.

Thursday

• 7:18 a.m.: L. Åberg, A. Scott, H. Matsuyama
• 7:29 a.m.: X. Schauffele, JL Ballester, B. DeChambeau
• 7:40 a.m.: S. Lowry, J. Rose, R. McIlroy
• 1:03 p.m.: Min Woo Lee, Justin Thomas, Brooks Koepka
• 1:14 p.m.: J. Spieth, J. Rahm, D. Johnson
• 1:25 p.m.: V. Hovland, C. Morikawa, S. Scheffler

Player profile and insight including chip-ins from FanDuel Research.

Since 2019, Jon Rahm has gained strokes in 19 of 20 possible categories at U.S. Opens, only losing marginal strokes around the green at the 2020 U.S. Open at Winged Foot. He’s also picked up distance in all five and fairways on the field simultaneously in three of the five.

Back to his major form: this year, Rahm has finished T14 at Augusta National and T8 at the PGA Championship (though was playing aggressively down the stretch in that one).

His ball-striking is pure right now, and one of the things that separated Rahm from other studs at his peak was how good his short game was — and still is.

Even with large greens, golfers will need to have soft hands around the greens when they inevitably miss, and Rahm’s putter can certainly heat up enough for par saves and birdies whenever they’re available based on his long-term putting splits.

Check back for more picks and updates ahead of and during tournament.

PGA tournament matchups winners posted in Forbes from Jan-April include 2-0 in the Pebble Beach Pro-Am with tournament winner Rory McIlroy over Scottie Scheffler. Phoenix Open followers of FairwayJay went 1-0 with Justin Thomas (T6) over Hideki Matsuyama plus Justin Thomas over Xander Schauffele in The Players Championship, 1-0 in the Mexico Open at VidantaWorld and Houston Open winner Min Woo Lee also a tournament matchup winner. The Masters outright winner Rory McIlroy was another matchup winner over Scottie Scheffler as a big plus underdog again. Daniel Berger was the winner (1-0) in our RBC Heritage matchup at Harbour Town. A 2-0 tournament matchup result in the Truist Championship with both picks Mitchell and Cantlay winning easily and performing very well with top 10 finishes. Canadian Open winner (1-0) on Burns as underdog, and he finished runner-up in a playoff behind our outright winner on big longshot Ryan Fox.

Chip-in for additional tournament match-up picks, and email me for added direct picks and updates:  FairwayJay@gmail.com.

Next week it’s the Travelers Championship and the final Signature Event of the 2025 PGA Tour season from TPC River Highlands in Cromwell, CT.

Golf Betting Notes and History from FairwayJay

My golf coverage and research includes use and references from sites at Golf Stats along with Fantasy National, and Data Golf. I gain added information and betting news from other sites and golf analysts. That includes top golf insider Justin Ray Golf, who contributes to PGA Tour (dot com) and The Athletic with insightful stats. The site GolfStats has also has player performance charts and a player competitor tool plus added stats and previews.

2022 PGA Tour tournament match-up picks finished 20-12 and concluded with the TOUR Championship.

The 2021 tournament match-ups finished 21-15 following a 17-5 start January through May.