Thursday Night NFL – Free Play Tampa Bay at Atlanta

Thursday Night NFL – Division Battle And Buccaneers Shooting For First Win

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons

Line: Atlanta Falcons -6

Total: 46

Play over the total

Watch and win on CBS and the NFL Network with kickoff at 8:25 ET from the Georgia Dome in Atlanta, GA

For those of you that are unaware, I write-up at least 20 CFB and NFL games each week during the season.  Clearly some games are worthy wagers and others are not.  Some stronger selections and thus a rating system provided to members.  A free play is usually an opinion, and you can decide if it’s worth a wager as this Thursday night game between the Falcons and Bucs has seen the total bet up to 46.  You can register for free on this site and/or become a member and join the hundreds who win thousands with Fairway’s Forecast.  Best wishes in your pursuit of profit.

 

Both teams are off 4-12 seasons and Tampa Bay is off to a slow start and makes their first road trip of the 2014 season following a pair of home losses.  The Bucs got their ground game going last week rushing 30 times for 157 yards against the strong defensive front of the Rams.  But St. Louis pulled out a late win with a field goal 19-17 to keep the Bucs at bay.  Now Tampa travels to face a Falcon’s offense that is the best they have seen this season and Tampa is a underdog for the first time this year and will also face a first-string QB for the first time this season after facing a pair of backups the opening two weeks.

Atlanta scored 31 and 28 points against Tampa Bay last season to split a pair of games against the Bucs.  Now they tackle the Bucs who are playing without their star DT McCoy ( hand ) who is doubtful for this contest.  The Falcons went wire-to-wire in a 31-23 home victory over the Bucs last season, but Tampa Bay out-rushed Atlanta 111-18.  The Falcons have rushed for 125 and 97 yards in two games this season, and their defense has been gashed for 472 yards in each contest by the Saints and Bengals while allowing a poor 6.7 yards-per-play.  Opponents broke 83 tackles against the Falcons last season; fourth-worst in the league. The secondary was one of the worst in the league last year allowing 8.0 yards-per-pass play and Atlanta has allowed over 300 passing yards in each of their first two games.  Falcons LB Sean Witherspoon is out for the year ( ACL ), and while Atlanta has made additions to upgrade their defensive line and front seven, the stats show continued concerns against the run and pass.  That’s an issue when spotting these points in a division contest.

Tampa Bay is not as strong offensively as the Saints and Bengals, but should improve as new QB Josh McCown develops with his top targets Vincent Jackson and rookie WR Mike Evans.  Running back Bobby Rainey rushed for 144 yards last week replacing injured Doug Martin ( knee ), who is expected to return tonight.  The Bucs should attack more on offense this game against a weaker defense.

The Falcon’s offense is in good hands with QB Matt Ryan, who passed for over 4,500 yards last season; his third-straight 4,000 yard season.  He’s been a play on QB when playing at home, and the combination of Atlanta head coach Mike Smith and QB Ryan has been produced a very profitable profile when playing at home off a loss.  Injuries were an issue for the Falcons and their offense last year, including to RB Steven Jackson, who has 98 yards rushing in two games this season.  But the Falcons still feature a game-breaking receiving core led by the return to health of Julio Jones, who has over 200 receiving yards in two games.  Last year’s top receiver Harry Douglas along with Roddy White and new addition Devin Hester all have over 100 receiving yards this season, so the Bucs secondary will face their strongest test to date and note they allowed Rams undrafted third-string QB Austin Davis to pass for 235 yards and over 8-yards-per-pass play last week.

The Saints and Falcons were in a shootout week 1 as Atlanta held on for a 37-34 win.  Both games between these teams were higher scoring last year and the match-ups suggest more of the same in this division tussle.  A short week is the lone concern as is supporting Tampa Bay in a difficult travel spot on a short week.  In a series where the favorite has covered 6 of the last 7 games and Atlanta averaging nearly 26 PPG at home the last 3 years, the Falcons look enticing but we’ll pass on the side.  Note Atlanta was just 3-5 SU during their disaster season of 2013, but the Falcons are 20-12 ATS as home chalk including 7-0 on this field against a division opponent off a loss.  More scoring expected and that’s the way we’ll play this Thursday night contest.