Super Bowl LVIII Chiefs-49ers Betting Preview, Picks And Las Vegas Coverage
I’ll be adding more Super Bowl LVIII Chiefs-49ers picks along with prop bets, so check back daily ahead of the Big Game and first-ever Super Bowl in Las Vegas.
You can click on the links below to follow along and check out my Super Bowl LVIII picks and coverage.
- Opening odds report
- Super Bowl LVIII picks
- Super Bowl LVIII stats, tips, trends (Forbes)
- NFL-themed slots machines in Las Vegas
- Biggest and best sportsbooks in Las Vegas
Super Bowl LVIII Chiefs-49ers Picks
- Opinion: 49ers (-2)
- Picks: Chiefs-49ers Under 47.5
Plenty of support for the Chiefs, but we’re sticking with the 49ers despite some of the ATS info below, and try to add more advanced stats and other information you can bet on ahead of the Big Game.
• Playbook Sports: Teams arriving to a Super Bowl game off a point spread loss are 3-8 SU and 2-8-1 ATS since 1980 (49ers). Teams coming in off an SU win as an underdog in the Championship Round are 19-7-1 ATS (Chiefs).
Recall last year we had a pair of Opinion winners on the Chiefs and Over in Kansas City’s thrilling 38-35 win over the Philadelphia Eagles.
Teams that rush for more yards in the Super Bowl are 42-15 straight up (SU) and 40-14-3 against the spread, ATS (74%). Teams that outrushed their opponents in this year’s playoffs are 9-3 SU and 10-2 ATS after the Lions outrushed the 49ers 182-155 and lost 34-31 as a 7-point underdog. The 49ers are going to pound the ground more and also have QB Purdy passing short screens and slants. Running back Christian McCaffrey projects to have a solid and most active game running and catching passes, and he’s the preferred player when betting on Super Bowl MVP. I do have longer shot MVP’s 80/1 on WR’s Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, which I bet ahead of the NFC Championship game. Those two players are now less than 30/1.
Passing Yards Per Attempt
Teams that average more passing yards per attempt in the NFL title game are 44-13 SU and 37-17-3 ATS (68.5%).
The team that had fewer turnovers are 38-7 SU and 36-8-1 ATS (82%) in the 45 Super Bowls where there was a turnover advantage for either team. In this year’s playoffs, teams with a 2 or greater turnover advantage and 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS. There was only one game with a TO differential of 1, and the Bills lost SU/ATS despite a +1 TO differential vs. the Chiefs and the Bills also had a 37-23 time of possession edge and 182-146 rushing edge.
The 49ers were +10 in turnovers this season before the playoffs, and the Chiefs were -11. In the playoffs, the Chiefs have 2 TO’s and opponents 4 with dumbo Lamar Jackson giving the ball away and the Ravens suffering a 3-0 negative turnover differential in the AFC Championship game loss to the Chiefs. The 49ers have just 1 TO in two playoff games to a combined 3 for their opponents Packers and Lions.