NFL Week 17 Kansas City at Cincinnati

NFL Week 17 has a number of key games impaction the upcoming playoffs. I outlined them in my update at Forbes, along with the current playoff picture in my update at TheLines. The biggest game of the day is Kansas City at Cincinnati, as the AFC’s current top seed Chiefs battle the Bengals, who lead the AFC North and can clinch a worst-to-first turnaround to win the division with a victory over Kansas City.

My NFL Week 17 underdog picks suggest they can, as I picked Cincinnati (+5.5) early in the week and the line has dipped to +4 and some +3.5 showing.

But I love the total to go Over, and I explained why in my update and analysis at Forbes. The total has also risen from 49.5 to 51, and the Bengals team total over 22.5 was also a bet. So the Bengals are live,  but let’s make Over the Total our NFL Week 17 Play of the Day.

Kansas City at Cincinnati

This game makes my Week 17 underdog picks, which are 24-12 ATS this season. The Bengals look like a live underdog, and the most capable and competitive underdog of the week. Public bettors will continue to support the Chiefs, who ride an 8-game winning streak into the jungle while covering the spread in their last six games. One of those was a most fortunate 34-28 overtime win and cover as a 3-point favorite at Los Angeles as the Chargers failed multiple times on fourth down inside the Chiefs 10-yard line.

Joe Burrow comes off a huge passing game with more than 500 yards and 4 touchdowns as the Bengals rolled over the Ravens to move into first place in the AFC North. Last season, the Bengals won four games while the other teams in the AFC North all won at least 11 games. What a turnaround for Cincinnati, who is the only NFL team that can go from last to first and win their division this season. A win over Kansas City secures the AFC North title and keeps the Bengals alive for the No. 1 seed into Week 18. A high-scoring shootout is projected with two top quarterbacks, elite receivers and sub-par pass defenses. Check the weather for potential higher winds, but Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow should put on a passing clinic with both quarterbacks already past 4,100 passing yards and 30 touchdowns this season, and Burrow leading the league with 8.7 yards per pass.

“Joe Burrow is going to attack you from every quadrant of the football field.”

The Bengals defense has played better the past six games, but Cincinnati has only faced one top-tier quarterback in their last 10 games. Justin Herbert passed for 317 yards and 3 TDs completing 26-of-35 passes against the Bengals while Joe Burrow passed for 300 yards but had 2 INT’s that game in defeat against a stronger Chargers secondary. Back in early October, the Bengals lost to the Packers in overtime at home and Aaron Rodgers passed for 344 yards and 2 touchdowns while completing 27-of-39 passes. Cincinnati lost another overtime game at home earlier this month to San Francisco, but Burrow passed for 348 yards and 2 TDs against a stronger Niners defense and secondary.

Kansas City is hot and playing well on both sides of the ball. The Chiefs defense has allowed fewer than 20 points in seven of their last eight games while taking the ball away multiple times in seven straight contests. That ends this week against the Bengals more explosive offense, and I expect the Bengals to surpass their team total of 22 points in this game with the over/under set at 49.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook. Don’t over-react to the Chiefs one-sided 36-10 win over the Steelers last week as the poor Pittsburgh offense had three turnovers. The Bengals smacked the Steelers 41-10 a month ago with a stronger and more balanced offensive attack. In one of the biggest game in years at Paul Brown Stadium, the Bengal Tigers are going to rule the jungle.

Pick: Bengals and Over

You can bet on it.

UPDATE: Bengals rally to win 34-31 as Over the Total, Bengals team total and Cincinnati plus the points and outright all came through and cashed. The box score lit up as did Joe Burrow on the Chiefs. The Bengals quarterbacked completed 30-of-39 passes for 446 yards and 4 TDs without an interception. Bengals star rookie WR Ja’Marr Chase had 11 receptions for 266 yards and 3 touchdowns. Wow!