NFL Week 11 Lookahead Lines And 2023 Market Moves
The 2023 NFL Week 11 lookahead lines provide us an advance look at the following week’s NFL lines before the current week’s games are played. I provide an explanation and tools for using lookahead lines below, and more information at OSGA with scoring and quarterback changes. As you review my Week 10 underdog picks, which are now losing this season but nearly 57% the past six years posting weekly (174-133 ATS), take a glance at the Week 10 matchups and lookahead lines before they are posted for next week’s games. Then compare them to the actual lines following the Week 10 games.
These NFL Lookahead Lines or advance lines can be useful in not only projecting ahead to next week’s games and lines, but also to keep you from over-reacting to one game or the upcoming games results. That’s especially the case with game totals that are averaging just 43 points per game and went 3-11 over/under in Week 9. Game totals are hitting ‘under’ the total at a 62% rate this season.
Week 10 Market Moves and Adjustments
Some of the key Week 10 spreads with notable adjustments from the Week 10 lookahead lines include:
- Chicago -1.5 to -3.5 vs. Carolina
- New England -1 to +2 vs. Indianapolis (Frankfurt, Germany)
- Baltimore -5.5 to -6 vs. Cleveland and total 40 to 37.5
- Cincinnati -7 to -6.5 vs. Houston and total 44.5 to 48
- New Orleans -3 to -2.5 at Minnesota and total 39 to 41
- Detroit -1.5 to -2.5 at LA Chargers
- Dallas -10 to -17 vs. NY Giants and total 41 to 38.5 (QB Jones out season)
Week 11 Lookahead Lines
Week 11 look ahead lines include seven division games kicking off on Thursday with a big AFC North showdown between the Bengals and Ravens in Baltimore. The Steelers and Browns also battle in Cleveland in another AFC North clash, and the AFC North is the only division with all teams sporting a winning record and assured of such heading into Week 11. The Seahawks and Rams in Los Angeles, and Jets vs. Bills in Buffalo are late afternoon division duels.
But the biggest bet and most watched game of the season will be Monday night on Nov. 20 when the Super Bowl rematch is played between the Eagles and Chiefs in Kansas City. Both the Eagles (+210) and Chiefs (+250) are the favorites to win their conferences again heading into Week 10 with Philadelphia (8-1) and Kansas City (7-2) sporting conference-best records along with the Ravens (7-2) into Week 10.
Teams with byes in Week 11 include: Falcons, Saints, Colts, Patriots
SuperBook additional advance lines for Week 11.
|NFL Week 11 Games||SuperBook|
|Cincinnati at Baltimore (Thurs)||BAL -3 and 43.5|
|Pittsburgh at Cleveland||CLE -3.5 and 37|
|Arizona at Houston||HOU -4.5 and 46.5|
|LA Chargers at Green Bay||LAC -3 and 42|
|NY Giants at Washington||WASH -8 and 36|
|Tennessee at Jacksonville||JAX -6.5 and 41|
|Chicago at Detroit||DET -8.5 and 45|
|Las Vegas at Miami||MIA -10 and 48.5|
|Dallas at Carolina||DAL -9.5 and 41.5|
|Tampa Bay at San Francisco||SF -10.5 and 43|
|Seattle at LA Rams||SEA -1.5 and 44.5|
|NY Jets at Buffalo||BUF -7 and 40.5|
|Minnesota at Denver (SNF)||DEN -2.5 and 43|
|Philadelphia at Kansas City (MNF)||KC -2.5 and 48.5|
As you evaluate, watch and wager on the Week 10 games, be sure you review box scores, impactful injuries, misleading stats and meaningful data from each week’s results. From there you can see where the leading online sportsbooks and bookmaker posts the following week’s lines on Sunday and Monday, and compare them to the lookahead lines and market moves during the week.
With so many backup quarterbacks and rookies playing, we’ve seen more line adjustments and a decrease in scoring with the QB carousel impacting games, scoring and quality of play. There’s been 42 different starting QBs this year into Week 9, and more into Week 10 with Giants QB Daniel Jones (torn ACL) out for the season and another rookie Tommy DeVito perhaps making his first NFL start. Josh Dobbs will be the new starter for the Vikings in Week 10. The former Cardinals starter this year came into the Week 9 game and win at Atlanta replacing rookie Jaren Hall (concussion), who had replaced Kirk Cousins (torn ACL).
There was an NFL-record 68 different starting quarterbacks last season.
How to use Lookahead Lines
Advance NFL lookahead lines provide a sneak peak at the projected lines for the following week’s games. This advance information from top sportsbooks like the SuperBook provides lessons in understanding lines and projections before the current week’s games are played.
The tendencies for many bettors is to over-react to previous weeks’ scores and results. The lookahead lines provide a sense of stability from the linemaker, who is unbiased in setting the lines in advance without the information from the current week’s contests.
Bettors can also gain an edge or find value in the lines once the current week’s lines are released. They do this based on not only a potential over-reaction to the recent week’s results, but by using information they have on teams including power rankings. Making adjustments is part of the process, along with formulating an opinion on certain teams. This can be based on personnel, injuries, situations and stats that come to light as the season progresses.
As you become more astute in your evaluations, betting and handicapping, you’ll be able to use your skills to project and time the market better and make more +EV bets ahead of market moves.