NFL Week 1 Home ‘Dogs and Totals

NFL Week 1 Home ‘Dogs and Totals – Isolating Proven Profiles on Totals

We’re ready to kickoff Week 1 in the NFL and I’ve got many totals wagers in early and Members have been provided a number of totals to fire at in Week 1. If you read my Week 1 handicapping article regarding line moves and insight using teams records and results from last season, you know there is some correlation to recent results impacting the lines. But as we see annually in Week 1 and early season results, perception is not often reality.

We’ve seen some significant line moves including totals as the Week 1 numbers have been available for months. As noted previously, there are eight (8) home underdogs on the Week 1 card, and with that there are some proven, profitable totals situations that arise when correlating totals plays to home underdogs.

Now, while we need to make adjustments for recent seasons scoring and reasons for the increase, we can still use relevant and meaningful situations and systems to identify some strong plays once we evaluate the match-ups, personnel and betting lines and totals. Last year Week 1 totals results featured seven games ‘over’ and nine games ‘under’ the total with seven games lined at 47 point or more. This year there are six games with posted totals of 47 or more points.

So, here is something to help you isolate more totals winners in Week 1 and perhaps future seasons. These situations are simple and easily identifiable, and at the very least you can position your wagers in the future by recognizing where the lines and totals may move.

The excitement of opening week is evident annually, and teams often bring that spirited effort on the defensive side of the ball. Last year there were six (6) outright underdog winners in Week 1, and no doubt we’ll see plenty again this year in Week 1 with so many hungry ‘Dogs ready to bark on their home turf.

So know that if you were to have played ‘under’ the total on Week 1 games involving a home underdog, you would have cashed better than 60% of your wagers the past 30+ years. That’s on a sample size of more than 135 games. I don’t recall seeing eight home underdogs in NFL Week 1 action over the past decade (last year there were 3), but perhaps someone can provide us the data if so.

As you can imagine, the higher the total the better the results. In fact, with a total of 45 or higher involving a home underdog, these ‘under’ the total wagers have won better than 79% of the time! Must note that this situation was just 1-2 last season as a pair of home ‘Dogs played high-scoring games, which brings us back to analyzing the match-ups and not just blindly betting. But with this simple premise and profile, and even with a smaller sample size, the results have been big winners.

Even if we adjusted for the increased scoring over the past decade and used 46 points as a baseline, we would still see the following games that fit the second profile with the totals tightener.

Chicago (+7) vs Green Bay – Total 49

Buffalo (+2.5) vs. Indianapolis – Total 46

Atlanta (+3) vs. Philadelphia – Total 56

Clearly the Falcons and Eagles game Monday night will be a contrary play for ‘under’ the total bettors, but now you have the ‘Fairway Facts’ with some base situations to analyze and more games to consider with eight home underdogs in Week 1.

Best wishes as you fire for more birdies and green on the gridiron in Week 1 and throughout season.