NFL Totals Moving Down In Week 8

Record scoring has been one of the big storylines of the 2020 NFL season. Scoring is up more than 5-points per game from last year with games averaging 50.65 points per game through the first seven weeks. However, the last two weeks have seen and over/under bets produce 10 overs, 17 unders and 1 push on the closing NFL totals.

In my recent article at Forbes, I provide more NFL Week 8 insight and information you can bet on including totals. Weather and wind is in play in Week 8, and NFLWeather.com is worth monitoring.

Using lines and totals for NFL betting at FanDuel Sportsbook, here some of the notable total moves downward in Week 8 following the opening numbers released Monday morning to the current totals.

• Las Vegas at Cleveland – 55.5 down to 50.5
• Minnesota at Green Bay – 55.5 down to 50.5
• New England at Buffalo – 44 down to 41
• New Orleans at Chicago – 45 down to 43.5
• Pittsburgh at Baltimore – 49 down to 46.5
• Tennessee at Cincinnati – 55.5 down to 53
• Tampa Bay at NY Giants – 48 down to 45 (Monday night)

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The NFL power rankings at Pro Football Focus have the Chiefs ranked No. 1 and the Jets No. 32. Thus, the largest point spread of the season with the Chiefs -19.5.

According to FanDuel’s next-generation sports analytics platform at numberFire, the Chiefs have an 89.1% win probability. The total of 49 may seem high considering the Jets awful offense that averages 12 points per game. But the Chiefs may get over that total themselves if they decide to play their ‘A’ game for four quarters.

NFL favorites of more than 17 points are just 5-15 ATS since 1996. According to Dr. Bob Sports, from week 7 on when the total average scoring margin differential of two teams is more than 20 points the lesser team is 111-57 ATS since 1992 (Jets have been outscored by 16.9 points per game and KC is +10.7 ppg in average scoring margin).

We played the Jets in our Week 7 underdog picks and New York (0-7) picked up their first ATS win of the season (1-6 ATS) in a 18-10 home loss to Buffalo. We are not adding or betting the Jets this week, despite situational and historical support on these huge underdogs. The Chiefs are more likely to win by a major blowout IMO, and perhaps 40-10…like the crazy 2020 year, 20 x 2 with the Jets fortunate to reach their season average, unless the Chiefs throw in their backup players.