NFL Preseason Quarterback Rotations

Quarterback Rotations and ATS Results in Preseason Play

Article posted at osga.com.

Preseason football has started and it’s time to evaluate the quarterback rotations and understand the influence and reaction in the betting market based on QB play and rotations. See the chart below for QB depth charts, and review my preseason strategy article.

Home teams often get favoritism, but not quite as often and the results in recent seasons may surprise you. Preseason home teams are just 65-62 SU and 55-70 ATS with a few pushes. Last year in 2016, three of the four weeks of preseason games saw 8-8 SU results. A strong majority off all the totals posted at the sports books are 40 points or less, except in the 3^rd preseason game when the starters often play more than half the game.

Last year, all 16 preseason games in week 3 had a posted total of 40 or more points, yet totals went just 4-10 over/under with a pair of pushes.

In week 4 of preseason action last season, totals went just 5-11, so take note that even with nearly all totals posted below 40 points in the final preseason game, motivation and scoring tends to be less as few starters see much action and the importance of players staying healthy and the start of the regular season takes precedence. 

Many preseason games will be lined between 1-3 points, and often favoring the home team. The linemaker is also unsure of what to expect in these preseason ‘evaluation’ games. Yet last year, 10 of the 16 games in week 1 were decided by 6 or more points.

Looking for value in the betting line is always key and something sharp bettors employ when betting numbers, not teams. In preseason contests with more games lined from 1-3 points, it becomes imperative that you seek out information and understand the intricacies of preseason football and the variances in betting and results. Consider reducing your risk and amount wagered if you’re betting preseason football, but be willing to ‘up the ante’ and make a stronger play if you feel the information and situation warrants a bigger bet. These games may be meaningless to many observers, but for the players competing for a livelihood and roster spots, and coaches looking to identify the next Dak Prescott, the games are in fact quite important. And if the bookmaker is willing to take the risk by posting a betting line, you can be sure that bettors, and especially professionals, are looking for every edge imaginable in evaluating the games and betting lines. 

• = Rookie

2017 NFL Preseason Quarterback Depth Charts

Team QB 1 QB 2 QB 3 QB 4 Arizona Carson Palmer Drew Stanton Blaine Gabbert Trevor Knight* Atlanta Matt Ryan Matt Schaub Matt Sims Alek Torgersen* Baltimore Joe Flacco Ryan Mallett Dustin Vaughan Josh Woodrum Buffalo Tyrod Taylor TJ Yates Nathan Peterman* Carolina Cam Newton Derek Anderson Joe Webb  Garrett Gilbert Chicago Mike Glennon Mitch Trubisky* Mark Sanchez Connor Shaw Cincinnati Andy Dalton AJ McCarron Jeff Driskel Cleveland Cody Kessler Brock Osweiler DeShone Kiser* Kevin Hogan Dallas Dak Prescott Kellen Moore Luke McCown Cooper Rush* Denver Trevor Siemian Paxton Lynch Chad Kelly* Kyle Sloter* Detroit Matthew Stafford Jake Rudock Brad Kaaya* Green Bay Aaron Rodgers Brett Hundley Joe Callahan Taysom Hill* Houston Tom Savage Deshaun Watson* Brandon Weeden Indianapolis Andrew Luck (PUP) Scott Tolzien Stephen Morris  Phillip Walker* Jacksonville Blake Bortles Chad Henne Brandon Allen Kansas City Alex Smith Patrick Mahomes Tyler Bray Joel Stave Los Angeles Rams Jared Goff Sean Mannion Dan Orlovsky Miami Ryan Tannehill Matt Moore Brandon Doughty David Fales Minnesota San Bradford Case Keenum Taylor Heinicke Teddy Bridgewater (PUP New England Tom Brady Jimmy Garoppolo Jacoby Brissett New Orleans Drew Brees Chase Daniel Garrett Grayson Ryan Nassib NY Giants Eli Manning Geno Smith Josh Johnson Davis Webb* NY Jets Josh McCown Bryce Petty Christian Hackenberg Jason Vander Lann Oakland Derek Carr Connor Cook EJ Manuel Philadelphia Carson Wentz Nick Foles Matt McGloin Dane Evans* Pittsburgh Ben Roethlisberger Landry Jones Joshua Dobbs* Bart Houston* Los Angeles Chargers Philip Rivers Kellen Clemens Cardale Jones Mike Bercovici San Francisco Bran Hoyer Matt Barkely CJ Beathard* Nick Mullens Seattle Russell Wilson Trevone Boykin Austin Davis Tampa Bay Jameis Winston Ryan Fitzpatrick Ryan Griffin Sefo Liufau* Tennessee Marcus Mariota Matt Cassel Alex Tanney  Tyler Ferguson* Washington Kirk Cousins Colt McCoy Nate Sudfeld