NFL Preseason Projections – Do Winless Teams Bounce Back in Week 2?

Improved Play Expected in Preseason Week 2

Week 1 preseason action saw Pittsburgh play about as poorly and uninspired as we expected in our ‘play against’ Pittsburgh projection. But the Steelers won the game 20-12 over the NY Giants, despite just 10 first downs, 226 yards and 26 minutes possession. Only three teams had fewer yards than the Steelers in week 1 preseason, and the Giants ran 24 more offensive plays but were also inefficient. Pittsburgh took advantage of 2 NYG turnovers in their own territory, and both resulted in Steelers scores including one off a muffed punt. Two pretty poor performances, which is more likely in NFL preseason with more backups playing and little motivation. That victory improved the Steelers to just 5-17 ATS of late under coach Tomlin, and in the ‘perception/reality’ game of the week, expect poor Pittsburgh to suffer regression to the flying Falcons in week 2, knowing too that Steelers rookie QB Josh Dobbs was not good in the opener (8/15 passing for 100 yards and 2 INT’s & QB rating of 56.9).

So on to Week 2  of the NFL preseason and what do we learn? The linemaker is still posting tight lines, and 13 of the 16 games feature point spreads of 3 or less. Improvement should be expected by players and teams, as starters play a little longer and some into the 2nd quarter for more teams. But how about a history lesson?

Situational handicapping entails various components, which can include scheduling. We also must determine if a team is going to continue positive or negative momentum, and whether they will suffer a letdown or bounce back from a poor performance or defeat. I realize it’s preseason and stats and starters are often thrown out since so many backups see the field. But motivation must still be determined, over and above whatever stat profiles or projections seem most probable.

Of course, QB depth charts and rotations are important in preseason with many starters playing limited minutes. So too is determining motivation levels, as most coaches care significantly less about winning in the preseason. But let’s take a look at the situation and base premise of 1-0 teams vs. 0-1 teams in preseason play.

In the past 20+ years, teams off a loss that are 0-1 in preseason play are better than 64% ATS when facing teams off a win that are 1-0. That’s a solid situation with a sample size of more than 150 games.

Week 2 games that fit the betting profile are:

Tampa Bay (0-1) at Jacksonville (1-0): Jaguars (pk/-1)
Carolina (1-0) at Tennessee (0-1):        Titans  (-3)
Kansas City (0-1) at Cincinnati (1-0):    Bengals (-1.5)
Green Bay (1-0) at Washington (0-1):   Redskins  (-3.5)
LA Rams (1-0) at Oakland (0-1):           Raiders (-3)
Atlanta (0-1) at Pittsburgh (1-0):            Falcons  (-2.5) – biggest move from opener of PIT (-2.5)
NY Giants (0-1) at Cleveland (1-0):       Browns -1

An additional sub-set situation of this base profile hits at greater than 78% ATS and supports three 0-1 teams in week 2. That includes 12-3 ATS over the last four seasons, and includes the NY Giants again in week 2 after letting us down last week. When referencing ATS records, know that lines move, as many have in preseason week 2, and ATS records can have variation depending on opening or closing moves and results. 

New York broke camp Tuesday, and the Giants have remained in good health thus far in the preseason and practices. I don’t project New York to be an above average team this season, and the offensive line is an issue. The QB play needs to be stronger in the NFL preseason with two sub-par veterans battling for playing time and the No. 2 QB spot behind Eli Manning. I expect Geno Smith to play better this week, but he’s still not too reliable yet. On defense, the Giants do possess a very strong cornerback/safety quartet. Coach McAdoo should have his team playing a little more motivated following last week’s poor performance at home.

The Browns won 2 games last season and have many holes to plug and depth to fill. Coach Hugh Jackson will announce his starting QB vs. the Giants soon, but know that Brock Osweiler is taking more first-team reps now despite a sub-par performance in the preseason opener (6/14, 42 yards). He too will be better, and Cleveland fans better hope so because the other two QB’s are not ready to be an NFL starter for a number of games.

Coach Jackson likes to use a lot of shifts and pre-snap movements. Cody Kessler has really struggled at QB during camp and was ineffective in the preseason opener. Rookie QB DeShone Kiser passed for 184 yards with the most playing time, but don’t be fooled. Kiser has lots of learning to do, and his QB coach says, “he’s still not there,” and “he knows it.” Starting Kiser or getting him ready to be the No. 1 QB is not likely, unless the Browns want to settle for a few wins again this season. Kiser will play plenty against the Giants and the rest of preseason, but it’s obvious that he needs to improve his pre-snap reads and progressions during a play, along with basic fundamentals. He has the arm strength, but playing QB at the highest level takes mental strength and learning ability, of which he has a long ways to go to be a reliable NFL quarterback.

The Browns offensive line should be improved this season, but it’s taking time to gel and has not shown well during practice. And in the opening preseason game, the Browns faced very few starters on defense for the Saints weaker group. Yet, the Browns gained only 71 yards on 22 carries — a 3.2 average, and the longest run was 10 yards by QB Osweiler.

The Browns vs Giants is another meaningless game in the process of NFL preseason, and if you’re betting at the sports books, you should likely wager less or take a pass on a majority of the games. If you focus less on the match-ups and starters, and consider motivation and situations more meaningful, then historical situations say the Giants are the side to support in a Monday night contest that likely has less offensive efficiency.

Check out the best online sportsbooks and this article posted at osga.com.