NFL Handicapping – Inside the Numbers Week 9

Handicapping and Analyzing Stats – NFL Inside the Numbers Week 9

Throughout the NFL season, I review weekly box scores, stats, game recaps and more after watching many of the NFL games. For over a decade, I have kept a proprietary database of statistical information and utilized relevant rushing numbers, statistical guidelines and situations to better assist me in sports investing and providing point spread winners.

Week 9 was solid one for our Members as Top Plays went 3-0 with a pair of totals winners on the Vikings/Rams ‘under’ in OT and the Steelers/Raiders ‘over’ as the two teams combined for over 1,000 yards in Pittsburgh’s 38-35 win.  Our SuperContest plays suffered just our second losing week this season going 2-3 but no regrets with the Rams and Bucs, as St. Louis missed too many opportunities to win that game before falling in overtime after the Vikings won the coin toss and elected to defend. Teams that rushed for at least 150 yards went 5-1 SU last week with the Rams the lone loser. Tampa Bay out-gained the Giants and held a significant 6.5 to 4.5 yards per play advantage, but three Bucs turnovers proved a big part of the problem in defeat.  We remain in the Top-6 our of 1,727 entries in the SuperContest @LVSuperBook in Las Vegas with a 31-13-1 ATS record through 9 weeks.

Here are some Week 9 stats of note.

Favorites went 8-5 SU and 6-7 ATS with totals going 8-5 over/under as scoring was up to 50 points per game.

Some eye-opening stats in the Steelers-Raiders game as Pittsburgh piled up 597 yards at 7.4 yards per play and won, but did not cover the rising game-day point spread that closed -6.  The Raiders responded with 440 yards offense at 6.9 yards per play but could not overcome four turnovers. The Saints had at least 30 first downs for the second-straight week (very rare) but lost in overtime to the Titans (+7.5), 34-28 (a winner for us).

Beating the NFL over the long-term involves an understanding of the match-ups, situations and stats, and how to apply them for success. Good fortune in the turnover column helps too. After all, teams that are +3 or more in the turnover column in a game are a long-term 93% winning ATS situation.  The Jaguars (4-0) suffered turnover troubles in Week 9 and became the first team this season to cover the point spread with a negative turnover differential of 3 or more (1-23 ATS).

Teams that had a meaningful rushing advantage over their opponent ( at least 30 yards ) went 10-1 ATS in week 9. Teams that rushed for at least 150 yards went 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS including our Top Play winner on the Eagles. For the season, this 30-yard rushing guideline and situation is 70-24 ATS (74%) including 26-5 ATS over the last three weeks. We’ll discuss our rushing guidelines throughout the season, but if you can correctly handicap this situation and advantage in a weekly NFL match-up and it plays out accordingly, you’re well on your way to cashing more tickets and point spread winners.  Clearly it’s not an easy forecast and when a team falls behind by margin they often have to abandon the running game. And who would have forecasted the Jets to rush for just 29 yards on 28 attempts against the Jaguars (and win), or the Falcons to rush for 17 yards on 14 attempts in defeat at San Francisco? For over a decade, teams that out-rush their opponent by at least 30 yards in a NFL game cover the point spread approx. 75% of the time. There has not been a season since 2000 when this has been below 70% on average. Pay attention to offensive line play and key injuries along the line as those can greatly affect the teams rushing attack and game plan.

Clients have paid me for over a decade for my expertise and ability to proficiently project point spread winners because I not only understand point of attack play and rushing guidelines used for success, but because it’s also important to understand situations and make adjustments to changes, personnel, match-ups, injuries, weather and more. Note the Steelers lead the league rushing for 5.1 yards per rush, but star RB Le’Veon Bell is out for the season with injury, but DeAngelo Williams continues to run well and last week the Steelers rushed for 195 yards.

Week 9 big ground gainers in rushing included the Bills stampeded over the Dolphins (266 rush yards/36 attempts), Steelers (195/30), Patriots (161/37), Eagles (172/35), Bengals (152/37), Vikings (145/35), 49ers (133/38), Panthers (130/36) and Colts (120/40). Notice all these teams rushed the ball at least 30 times in victory; another key indicator when analyzing rushing stats in match-up analysis.

The Falcons (17/14), Jets (29/28), Broncos (35/14), Redskins (37/15), Saints (61/27), Browns (69/17), Packers (71/19) and Chargers (77/19) all struggled to get their running game going in defeat, except for the Jets, who had a 4-0 turnover advantage.

But the point of all this is that rushing stats and point of attack play often trumps passing prowess a majority of the time. When you have a few top-tier quarterbacks that can overcome a poor ground game or use it as a short passing attack (Brady), sometimes a lack of a running game can work out. A dominant defense helps. But regardless of all the talking heads telling you that teams must have a passing game to succeed in the NFL, I’ll point you to my weekly articles and stats that suggest otherwise and that perception is not reality in the pass/run success argument of the NFL. We have the adjust to the rules and changes in the game allowing for more passing game success and now more scoring in recent seasons, but the game is still about blocking, tackling, running and catching and the team that controls the line of scrimmage, establishes a running game (or more attempts) and minimizes turnovers is often the team that comes out on top.

Teams that had strong offensive showings and efficient yards per play (yppl) in week 9 victories were the Steelers (597 yards/7.4 yards per play), Titans (483/7.2), Bills (420/8.2), Patriots (460/6.1), Eagles (459/6.4), Bears (446/6.4) and Panthers (427/6.5). Inefficient offensive teams included the Browns (213/4.0 ), Redskins (250/4.5 and in victory the Jets (290/4.5) and Vikings (293/4.7). The league average is approximately 5.4 yards-per-play.

Week 10 early projections suggest the following teams may have an advantage at the point of attack and out-rush their opponents by a potential margin: Packers, Rams, Eagles, Steelers, Chiefs.

We’ll review more NFL stats and information each week as we continue to evaluate the results, match-ups and work to become even more proficient in point spread prognosis.