NFL Inside the Numbers Week 8

Handicapping and Analyzing Stats – NFL Inside the Numbers Week 8

Throughout the NFL season, I review weekly box scores, stats, game recaps and more after watching many of the NFL games. For over a decade, I have kept a proprietary database of statistical information and utilized relevant rushing numbers, statistical guidelines and situations to better assist me in sports investing and providing point spread winners.

Week 8 was a big one for us, as our rated plays for members went 4-1 and additional opinions were 2-0. We had one Top Play and it was a winner on the Texans and Titans game under the total in Houston’s 20-6 win. Daily Card Club members were 3-0 and all members received my SuperContest plays at the @LVSuperBook, and we went 5-0 to move back into the top-5 out of 1,727 entries with a 29-10-1 ATS record through 8-weeks.

Here are some Week 8 stats of note.

Favorites won 11 of 14 games while going 7-6-1 ATS rating the Vikings and Bengals as very slight favorites. Totals were 6-8 over/under. Here’s a link to week 8 stats and highlights including some significant injuries of note. Steelers RB Le’Veon Bell is out for the season along with 49ers RB Reggie Bush and Chargers WR Keenan Allen. Bears RB Matt Forte is likely out for at least a few games, and Browns CB Joe Haden and safety Donte Whitner will miss Thursday’s game against the Bengals with concussions.

Some eye-opening stats in the Saints-Giants game as New Orleans piled up a season-high 618 yards and 36 first downs including 511 passing by Drew Brees. The 49ers were held to less than 200 yards offense for the fourth time this season (a winner for us on the Rams), and Colin Kaepernick has lost the starting quarterback job in San Francisco. We had two favorites on our card this week and projected both to have solid rushing advantages. Our forecasts proved prophetic as the Chiefs rushed for 206 yards in a 45-10 destruction of Detroit while St. Louis ‘rammed’ the Niners at the point of attack with 197 rushing yards on a week-high 41 attempts.

Beating the NFL over the long-term involves an understanding of the match-ups, situations and stats, and how to apply them for success. Good fortune in the turnover column helps too. After all, teams that are +3 or more in the turnover column in a game are a long-term 93% winning ATS situation.  Two teams suffered turnover troubles in Week 8 as the Falcons (4-0) couldn’t overcome the giveaways despite nearly 500 yards offense and less than 300 for the Bucs as Tampa Bay wins in overtime as big ‘Dog, 23-20 (a winner for us). The Titans struggled again with just 211 yards offense and a 3-0 turnover margin sealed their fate, along with coach Ken Whisenhunt. Teams in this negative turnover situation are now 1-22 SU/ and 0-23 ATS this season and just one team last season won the game with a negative 3-or-greater turnover differential.  Dallas won the game but did not cover in week 1 this season despite a 3-0 turnover disadvantage.

Teams that had a meaningful rushing advantage over their opponent ( at least 30 yards ) went 7-2 ATS in week 8 and 8-1 SU. Teams that rushed for at least 150 yards went 3-0 SU/ATS. For the season, this rushing guideline and situation is 60-23 ATS (73%). We’ll discuss our rushing guidelines throughout the season, but if you can correctly handicap this situation and advantage in a weekly NFL match-up and it plays out accordingly, you’re well on your way to cashing more tickets and point spread winners.  Clearly it’s not an easy forecast and when a team falls behind by margin they often have to abandon the running game. For over a decade, teams that out-rush their opponent by at least 30 yards in a NFL game cover the point spread approx. 75% of the time. There has not been a season since 2000 when this has been below 70% on average. Pay attention to offensive line play and key injuries along the line as those can greatly affect the teams rushing attack and game plan.

Clients have paid me for over a decade for my expertise and ability to proficiently project point spread winners because I not only understand point of attack play and rushing guidelines used for success, but because it’s also important to understand situations and make adjustments to changes, personnel, match-ups, injuries, weather and more.

Week 8 big ground gainers in rushing included the Chiefs (206 rush yards/32 attempts), Rams (197/41), Broncos (160/34) and Vikings (147/25).  Follow rushing attempts stats and look for teams and match-ups where you anticipate them running the ball at least 30 times in a game, as that is another key indicator to point spread and winning success.

The Dolphins (15/13), 49ers (38/21), Browns (39/20), Texans (56/23) and Lions (81/14) all struggled to get their running game going in defeat.

But the point of all this is that rushing stats and point of attack play often trumps passing prowess a majority of the time. When you have a few top-tier quarterbacks that can overcome a poor ground game or use it as a short passing attack (Brady), sometimes a lack of a running game can work out. A dominant defense helps. But regardless of all the talking heads telling you that teams must have a passing game to succeed in the NFL, I’ll point you to my weekly articles and stats that suggest otherwise and that perception is not reality in the pass/run success argument of the NFL. We have the adjust to the rules and changes in the game allowing for more passing game success and now more scoring in recent seasons, but the game is still about blocking, tackling, running and catching and the team that controls the line of scrimmage, establishes a running game (or more attempts) and minimizes turnovers is often the team that comes out on top.

Teams that had strong offensive showings and efficient yards per play (yppl) in week 8 victories were the Saints (614 yards/8.1 yards per play), Broncos (500/7.9), Cardinals (491/6.4), Raiders (451/7.4) and Patriots (437/6.6). Inefficient offensive teams included the Packers (140/3.0 – wha?), 49ers (189/2.9 – again!), Titans (211/3.6), Cowboys (220/3.9), Browns (254/4.2), Dolphins (270/4.4), Texans (270/4.4), Lions (276/4.8,) and Bengals (296/4.6). The league average is approximately 5.4 yards-per-play.

Week 9 early projections suggest the following teams will have an advantage at the point of attack and out-rush their opponents by a potential margin: Bengals, Jets, Saints, Falcons, Bucs, Broncos.

We’ll review more NFL stats and information each week as we continue to evaluate the results, match-ups and work to become even more proficient in point spread prognosis.