NFL Inside the Numbers Week 7

Handicapping and Analyzing Stats – NFL Inside the Numbers Week 7

Throughout the NFL season, I review weekly box scores, stats, game recaps and more after watching many of the NFL games. For over a decade, I have kept a proprietary database of statistical information and utilized relevant rushing numbers, statistical guidelines and situations to better assist me in sports investing and providing point spread winners.

Week 7 started strong as our Top Plays delivered with early releases and best lines on the Rams 24-6 over the Browns and a 20* Big Bertha on the Jets in their 30-23 loss at New England. Nick Folk gets a raise, but New York was the right side start to finish taking plus-9 early and 7.5 to early game day. However, as I watched in a Las Vegas sportsbook to see Folk nail the 55-yard FG to cut the deficit to 7-points in the final minute, I heard a few people say they needed the kick to get a ‘push’ on New York. Another example of getting the best lines as able. We had a big card that included side winners on the Jaguars and Raiders outright as underdogs and a solid total winner in the Raiders 37-29 win at San Diego. But some totals that missed included the Giants/Cowboys with New York’s 100-yard kickoff return TD late, and Monday night’s late miss on the Cardinals/Ravens game. We evaluate the stats, situations and provide some analysis of winning wagers as time permits knowing that I write up at least 20 games a week for clients, companies, handicappers and various wagering sites for entertainment purposes. We had another good week in the SuperContest going 4-1 and I liked the card, however my team was not on the same page with all our selections as we narrowed the card and left the Raiders and Jaguars off our contest card. My SuperContest plays @LVSuperBook are now 25-10- and we’re sitting top-40 out of over 1,700 entries. See my previous SuperContest article.

Here are some Week 7 stats of note.

The week 7 favorites went 11-3 SU and 8-6 ATS as I graded the Vikings a favorite over the Lions in Minnesota’s win although Detroit closed -1 at kickoff Sunday. I also graded the Cardinals (-7.5) a winner as favorite as Arizona was available for the entire week to game day Monday night at that number before closing -9 in their 26-18 win over Baltimore. I did not have action on the side, but lost the total. Totals went 7-7 over/under with an average score of 46.4 points – right near the scoring average on this year’s games.

Beating the NFL over the long-term involves an understanding of the match-ups, situations and stats, and how to apply them for success. Good fortune in the turnover column helps too. After all, teams that are +3 or more in the turnover column in a game are a long-term 93% winning ATS situation.  Four teams suffered significant turnover troubles in defeat week 7 including the Bills (4-1), Browns (4-1), Steelers (3-0) and Cowboys (4-0). Teams in the negative-3 or greater turnover column in a game are now 1-20 SU/ and 0-21 ATS this season and just one team last season won the game with a negative 3-or-greater turnover differential.  Dallas won the game but did not cover in week 1 this season despite a 3-0 turnover disadvantage.

Teams that had a meaningful rushing advantage over their opponent ( at least 30 yards ) went 9-2 ATS in week 7 including our winners on the Rams, which played out very much as projected with a 158-82 rushing advantage. For the season, this rushing guideline and situation is 53-21 ATS (72%). We’ll discuss our rushing guidelines throughout the season, but if you can correctly handicap this situation and advantage in a weekly NFL match-up and it plays out accordingly, you’re well on your way to cashing more tickets and point spread winners.  For over a decade, teams that out-rush their opponent by at least 30 yards in a NFL game cover the point spread approx. 75% of the time. There has not been a season since 2000 when this has been below 70% on average.

Clients have paid me for over a decade for my expertise and ability to proficiently project point spread winners because I not only understand point of attack play and rushing guidelines used for success, but because it’s also important to understand situations and make adjustments to changes, personnel, match-ups, injuries, weather and more.

Week 7 big ground gainers in rushing included the suddenly swimming and resurgent Dolphins (248 rush yards/35 attempts), Buccaneers (190/30), Saints (183/36), Seahawks (176/41), Rams (158/26) and Vikings (140/35). The Panthers also had a big day on the ground (204/33) in their win over the Eagles (177/30), who also ran the ball very well in defeat. Note the Cowboys (233/41) had a huge day running the ball in defeat, but a kickoff return touchdown allowed and a 4-0 turnover deficit shows the impact of turnovers even with a dominating advantage at the point of attack and in total yards. Teams that run the ball at least 30 times per game have a strong chance to win and cover, while teams that run the ball less than 23 times and certainly less than 20 often struggle.  The league average is approx. 26 rushing attempts per game.

The Patriots (16/9), Redskins (50/19), Ravens (55/16), 49ers (61/15) and Colts (75/13) all struggled to get their running game going but the Patriots remained undefeated thanks to quarterback Tom Brady and timely third down conversions. Your rushing leaders and all teams stats are listed here and you can click on other categories to track rushing attempts, yards per rush and more and use those stats as you evaluate the match-ups, impact injuries (offensive/defensive line) and scheduling.

But the point of all this is that rushing stats and point of attack play often trumps passing prowess a majority of the time. When you have a few top-tier quarterbacks that can overcome a poor ground game or use it as a short passing attack (Brady), sometimes a lack of a running game can work out. A dominant defense helps. But regardless of all the talking heads telling you that teams must have a passing game to succeed in the NFL, I’ll point you to my weekly articles and stats that suggest otherwise and that perception is not reality in the pass/run success argument of the NFL. We have the adjust to the rules and changes in the game allowing for more passing game success and now more scoring in recent seasons, but the game is still about blocking, tackling, running and catching and the team that controls the line of scrimmage, establishes a running game (or more attempts) and minimizes turnovers is often the team that comes out on top.

Teams that had strong offensive showings and efficient yards per play (yppl) in week 7 victories were the Dolphins (503 yards/8.5 yards per play), Buccaneers (479/8.0), Saints (449/5.4), Cardinals (414/7.0), Vikings (425/5.7), Raiders (412/7.1) Panthers (394/6.8), Seahawks (388/5.5) and Chiefs (377/6.0). The Cowboys (460/6.7) had a big game on offense in defeat with turnover troubles. Inefficient offensive teams included the (142/3.2 – third game this season below 200 yards), Titans (256/4.9) and Ravens (276/4.7). Clearly it’s not always easy to project good or bad offensive days when you see huge days from the Dolphins and Buccaneers, who entered the week well below average offensively and were even facing above average defensive teams.

We’ll review more NFL stats and information each week as we continue to evaluate the results, match-ups and work to become even more proficient in point spread prognosis.