NFL Inside the Numbers Week 5

Handicapping and Analyzing Stats – NFL Inside the Numbers Week 5

Throughout the NFL season, I review weekly box scores, stats, game recaps and more after watching many of the NFL games. For over a decade, I have kept a proprietary database of statistical information and utilized relevant rushing numbers, statistical guidelines and situations to better assist me in sports investing and providing point spread winners.

Week 5 was another strong week for our point spread prognosis as Members enjoyed a 4-1 Sunday including a 2-0 sweep on our Top Plays with Washington’s near upset and Philadelphia flying over the Saints 39-17. Our lone total was ‘over’ in the Eagles/Saints game, and our analysis of winning wagers played out as projected on that game and other winners. The last three weeks have seen our NFL Top Plays go 5-0-1 for Members, and you can join other winners for more victories and value while receiving my weekly SuperContest selections @LVSuperBook as part of your membership. Those plays are now 19-5-1 ATS and I provided a SuperContest article previously.

Here are some Week 5 stats of note.

The Steelers last-second touchdown gave Pittsburgh a 24-20 Monday night win at San Diego, and underdog bettors a weekly win as betting favorites were 6-7-1 ATS rating the Bills as a slight favorite and non-cover. Favorites were 10-4 SU overall and totals were 7-7 in Week 5 with 648 points scored for an average of 46.3 points per game.

Beating the NFL over the long-term involves an understanding of the match-ups, situations and stats, and how to apply them for success. Good fortune in the turnover column helps too. After all, teams that are +3 or more in the turnover column in a game are a long-term 93% winning ATS situation.  The Lions remained the leagues only winless team as they were trounced by the Cardinals 42-17 (a winner for us) and Detroit had six turnovers with a 6-0 turnover margin. Teams in the negative-3 or greater turnover column in a game are now 1-13 SU/ and 0-14 ATS this season and just one team last season won the game with a negative 3-or-greater turnover differential.  Dallas won the game but did not cover in week 1 this season despite a 3-0 turnover disadvantage.

Teams that had a meaningful rushing advantage over their opponent ( at least 30 yards ) went just 5-5 ATS in week 5. Some strong rushing performances and big margins did not translate to wins or covers for the Rams (191 rush, a loser for us), Seahawks (200 rush, push) or Ravens (181). For the season, this rushing guideline and situation is 39-15 ATS (72%). We’ll discuss our rushing guidelines throughout the season, but if you can correctly handicap this situation and advantage in a weekly NFL match-up and it plays out accordingly, you’re well on your way to cashing more tickets and point spread winners.  For over a decade, teams that out-rush their opponent by at least 30 yards in a NFL game cover the point spread approx. 75% of the time. There has not been a season since 2000 when this has been below 70% on average.

Clients have paid me for over a decade for my expertise and ability to proficiently project point spread winners because I not only understand point of attack play and rushing guidelines used for success, but because it’s also important to understand situations and make adjustments to changes, personnel, match-ups, injuries, weather and more.

Week 5 big ground gainers in rushing included the Seahawks (200 rush yards/30 attempts), Rams (191/36), Cardinals (187/25), Eagles (186/34), Bucs (183/40), Falcons (176/32) and Steelers (155/27). Teams that run the ball at least 30 times per game have a strong chance to win and cover, while teams that run the ball less than 23 times and certainly less than 20 often struggle.  The league average is approx. 26 rushing attempts per game.

The Broncos (43/18), Chargers (52/19), Jaguars (55/17), Redskins (51/24) and Lions (57/18) all struggled to get their running game going but the Broncos escaped with a win again with a pick-6. Denver is rushing the ball for just 71 yards per game at 3.3 yards per rush and just 21 rush attempts per game – all bottom three in the NFL.

But the point of all this is that rushing stats and point of attack play often trumps passing prowess a majority of the time. Clear situations of such in Week 5 were the Chargers and Philip Rivers, who passed for 354 and rushed for just 52 yards in defeat, and they would not have covered even if the Steelers did not score a touchdown on the final play. The Giants were out-rushed 124-84 but Eli Manning passed for 441 yards, yet New York never had a chance to cover -7 in a last second 30-27 win over lowly San Francisco. The Lions put up pretty passing numbers playing from behind with 379 passing yards but rushed for just 57 yards in a one-sided defeat.

When you have a few top-tier quarterbacks that can overcome a poor ground game or use it as a short passing attack (Manning), sometimes a lack of a running game can work out. A dominant defense helps. But regardless of all the talking heads telling you that teams must have a passing game to succeed in the NFL, I’ll point you to my weekly articles and stats that suggest otherwise and that perception is not reality in the pass/run success argument of the NFL. We have the adjust to the rules and changes in the game allowing for more passing game success and now more scoring in recent seasons, but the game is still about blocking, tackling, running and catching and the team that controls the line of scrimmage, establishes a running game (or more attempts) and minimizes turnovers is often the team that comes out on top.

Teams that had strong offensive showings and efficient yards per play (yppl) in week 5 victories were the Eagles (519 yards/6.6 yards per play), NY Giants (525/7.0), Browns (505/6.3), Bucs (369/6.0), Patriots (365/6.5) and Cardinals (345/7.7) and Steelers (349/6.2). The Falcons had over 400 yards but average efficiency at 5.3).  Inefficient offensive teams included the Cowboys (264/4.0), Raiders (288/4.2), Redskins (270/4.7), Chiefs (287/4.9) and Titans (276/4.5) and Bills (209/4.2) in Buffalo’s 14-13 win at Tennessee.

We’ll review more NFL stats and information each week as we continue to evaluate the results, match-ups and work to become even more proficient in point spread prognosis.