NFL Inside The Numbers Week 9

Handicapping and Analyzing Stats – NFL Inside the Numbers Week 9

Throughout the NFL season, I review weekly box scores, stats, game recaps and more after watching many of the NFL games. For over a decade, I have kept a proprietary database of statistical information and utilized relevant rushing numbers, statistical guidelines and situations to better assist me in sports investing and providing point spread winners.  Each week we analyze the information and try to position our plays for success based on match-up advantages.  The running game and/or ability to stop the run is another way to isolate NFL point spread winners.

Here are some Week 9 stats of note.

Week 9 NFL favorites went 9-4 SU and 6-7 ATS and are now 89-44 SU and 66-69 ATS this season.  Totals went  8-5 O/U and I graded the Cowboys/Cardinals game over the total which was also a push for many.

Beating the NFL over the long-term involves an understanding of the match-ups, situations and stats, and how to apply them for success.  Good fortune in the turnover column helps too. After all, teams that are +3 or more in the turnover column in a game are a long-term 93% winning ATS situation.  This season, teams that are +3 or greater in the turnover column in a game are 27-1 SU and 25-3 ATS after the Eagles became the first team to win outright despite a negative turnover differential ( 4-1 ) of 3 or more.  The Raiders also covered despite a negative 3-0 TO differential and just 226 total yards in their 30-24 loss at Seattle.

Teams that had a meaningful rushing advantage over their opponent (at least 30 yards) went 3-2 ATS in Week 9 and are now 67-25 ( 73% this season – right near the historical average ). We’ll discuss our rushing guidelines throughout the season, but if you can correctly handicap this situation and advantage in a weekly NFL match-up and it plays out accordingly, you’re well on your way to cashing more tickets and point spread winners. For over a decade, teams that out-rush their opponent by at least 30 yards in a NFL game cover the point spread approx. 75% of the time. There has not been a season since 2000 when this has been below 70% on average.

Clients have paid me for over a decade for my expertise and ability to proficiently project point spread winners because I not only understand point of attack play and rushing guidelines used for success, but because it’s also important to understand situations and make adjustments to changes, personnel, match-ups, injuries, QB play, weather and more.   As the season progresses with more data to digest, our handicapping and match-up analysis usually becomes stronger as we project more point spread winners.

Week 9 big ground gainers in rushing included the Bengals ( 191 rush yards/ 34 carries ), Eagles ( 190/40  ) and Seahawks ( 149/38 ).  Week 9 was the worst week of the season in terms of rushing yards as 7 teams struggled to get their running game going and rushed for less than 70 yards including the Raiders ( 37/18 ), Broncos ( 43/17 ), Chargers ( 50/19 ), Browns ( 50.28 ), Steelers ( 55/25 ), Ravens ( 63/18 ) and Patriots ( 66/25 ).

Teams that had strong offensive showings and efficient yards per play (yppl) in Week 9 victories were the Eagles ( 483 yards/6.1 yards per play  ), Colts ( 443/6.2 ), Dolphins ( 441/6.0 ), Bengals ( 423/6.3 ) and Steelers ( 376/5.8 ).  Inefficient offensive teams included the Chargers ( 178/3.6 ), Rams in victory ( 193/3.7 ), Raiders ( 226/3.8 ), Panthers ( 231/4.2 ), 49ers ( 263/4.2 ).   The league average is approximately 5.4 yards-per-play.

Early Week 10 rushing projections with margin parameters appear to favor the Cowboys over Jaguars, Ravens over Titans, Broncos over Raiders, Seahawks over NY Giants and Eagles over Panthers.  All those positive ground game teams are favored by at least a TD in Week 10.

We’ll review more NFL stats and information each week as we continue to evaluate the results, match-ups and work to become even more proficient in point spread prognosis.

Stay on Course…

@FairwayJay