NFL Inside the Numbers Week 9

Handicapping and Analyzing Stats – NFL Inside the Numbers by @FairwayJay

Each week during the NFL season I provide my thoughts and insight in my NFL Inside the Numbers column to assist you in your pursuit of profit. A review of relevant stats and how to incorporate them into your weekly analysis of games is provide here and also in my weekly NFL Podcast where I provide insight and analysis into the upcoming Sunday games.

Top Play Club Members enjoyed another winning week with FairwayJay’s AFC Underdog GOY on the Browns

This week my NFL Inside the Numbers Week 9 takes a look at some strong rushing attacks that surprisingly did not fare too well.   Strong rushing totals by the Bills (241 yds rushing), Raiders (210), Bucs (205) and Packers (199) saw all those teams lose with only Tampa Bay able to cover the point spread. NFL Inside the Numbers Week 9 NFL Favorites went 8-5 straight-up (SU) and 6-7 ATS against the spread (ATS), and are now 92-41 SU and 69-61-2 ATS year to date.  Over/under totals were 7-4-2 depending on grade at lines available until Sunday or closing numbers.  Tight week on many totals landing near the posted numbers, including games we were involved in at Carolina and Cleveland.  Using our grade, totals are now 71-59 O/U YTD.   Continue to do your best to stay ahead and project line moves, and shop for the best numbers.  We had a winning week overall and Top Play Club members were also profitable going 2-1 rating the Browns total a loser despite available at 42 Sunday and closing 42.5 in the Browns 24-18 win.

Betting and beating the NFL over the long-term involves an understanding of the match-ups, situations and stats, and how to apply them for success. Turnovers will always have an impact on NFL games and especially against the spread (ATS), as I’ve tracked the impact of 3 or more turnovers for over a decade along with a 2-turnover differential advantage or disadvantage.  After all, teams that are +3 or more in the turnover column in a game are a long-term 93% winning ATS situation.  The Bengals (4-1), Bills (3-0) and Seahawks (3-0) were this week’s big turnover differential losers, but Seattle managed to rally from a 21-0 deficit and pull out a 27-24 victory in OT over the still winless Buccaneers.  Teams that are +3 or more in the turnover column are now 19-2 SU and 20-1 ATS this season. Teams that are exactly +2 in the turnover column in a game are 25-8 ATS this season including 14-1 ATS the past three weeks.

Teams that had a meaningful rushing advantage over their opponent went 7-3 ATS in week 9 and 23-7 ATS the past three weeks.   For the season, teams with at least a 30 yard rushing advantage in a game are 62-29 ATS. We discuss our rushing guidelines throughout the season, but if you can correctly handicap this situation and advantage in a weekly NFL match-up and it plays out accordingly, you’re well on your way to cashing more tickets and point spread winners. For over a decade, teams that out-rush their opponent by at least 30 yards in a NFL game cover the point spread approx. 75% of the time. There has not been a season since 2000 when this has been below 70% on average.

Teams that had strong offensive showings in total net yards and efficient yards per play (yppl) in victory were the Patriots (629/8.9), Eagles (547/9.6), Redskins (500/6.9), Bears (442/5.9) and Titans (383/6.3).  The Steelers (508/7.0), Texans (493/7.3), Bills (470/6.1), Bengals (465) and Vikings (405/6.0) had productive days on offense but all lost.  The NFL team average yards per play is approx. 5.4. Inefficient offensive teams included the Chiefs (219/4.1 – won!), and Ravens (299/4.5).

Week 9 big ground gainers in rushing that won included the Redskins (209 rush yds/40 attempts), NY Jets (198/36), Titans (198/35), Seahawks (198/35), Patriots (197/3), and Bears (171/33).  These teams went 5-1 ATS.

The Cowboys (36 rush yds/9 attempts – won!), Saints (41/13), Ravens (55/21), Colts (69/14 – won!), Chargers (69/16) and Falcons (78/20) struggled to get their running game going. These teams went  1-5 ATS.  While the game flow, situations and score can impact a team’s game plan and use of the running game,  it’s proven over and over, season after season that teams who fail to commit to the running game or lack consistency in the ability to run the ball and control the ball, clock and chains are more often on the losing side of the ledger, both SU and ATS.

Here are the ATS records of teams that fail to run the ball more than 20 times in a game and those teams than run the ball at least 30 times in a game.  Yards per rush is not as important as controlling the ball, clock and chains. Having a quality or top-tier QB helps, but review these running stats again and use them in your handicapping to see if you can determine which teams will have success running the ball and/or stopping the run each week and which teams will commit to controlling and running the ball.

Through week 9 games, teams that run the ball 20 times or less in a game are a combined 9-52 ATS this season.  Conversely, teams that run the ball at least 30 times per game are 61-15 ATS this season (not including games where both teams run the ball at least 30 times).

We’ll review more NFL Inside the Numbers stats and information each week as we continue to evaluate the results, match-ups and work to become even more proficient in point spread prognosis. Listen to my NFL Podcast posted early each week on Tuesday’s for more insight, analysis and sports betting information.

Stay on Course…
@FairwayJay

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