NFL Inside The Numbers Week 7

Handicapping and Analyzing Stats – NFL Inside the Numbers Week 7

Throughout the NFL season, I review weekly box scores, stats, game recaps and more after watching many of the NFL games. For over a decade, I have kept a proprietary database of statistical information and utilized relevant rushing numbers, statistical guidelines and situations to better assist me in sports investing and providing point spread winners.  Each week we analyze the information and try to position our plays for success based on match-up advantages.  The running game and/or ability to stop the run is another way to isolate NFL point spread winners.

Here are some Week 7 stats of note.

Week 7 NFL favorites went 11-4 SU and 7-8 ATS and are now 70-35 SU and 51-55 ATS this season.  Totals went 7-8 O/U and there were 654 points scored in 15 games for the second-lowest weekly scoring average of the season at 43.6 PPG.

Beating the NFL over the long-term involves an understanding of the match-ups, situations and stats, and how to apply them for success.  Good fortune in the turnover column helps too. After all, teams that are +3 or more in the turnover column in a game are a long-term 93% winning ATS situation.  This season, teams that are +3 or greater in the turnover column in a game are 23-0 SU and 22-1 ATS as the Chicago Bears suffered such turnover troubles and deficit ( 3-0 ) in Week 7.

Teams that had a meaningful rushing advantage over their opponent (at least 30 yards) went 10-2 ATS in Week 7 and are now 58-18 ( 76% this season – right at the historical average ). We’ll discuss our rushing guidelines throughout the season, but if you can correctly handicap this situation and advantage in a weekly NFL match-up and it plays out accordingly, you’re well on your way to cashing more tickets and point spread winners. For over a decade, teams that out-rush their opponent by at least 30 yards in a NFL game cover the point spread approx. 75% of the time. There has not been a season since 2000 when this has been below 70% on average.

Clients have paid me for over a decade for my expertise and ability to proficiently project point spread winners because I not only understand point of attack play and rushing guidelines used for success, but because it’s also important to understand situations and make adjustments to changes, personnel, match-ups, injuries, QB play, weather and more.   As the season progresses with more data to digest, our handicapping and match-up analysis usually becomes stronger as we project more point spread winners.

Week 7 big ground gainers in rushing included the NY Jets ( 218 rush yards/43 carries ), Jaguars ( 185/35 – surprise! ), Colts ( 171/34 ), Cowboys ( 156/35 ), Chiefs ( 154/39 ), Vikings ( 158/29 ) and Dolphins ( 137/33 ).  Note these teams went 7-0 ATS and all ran the ball at least 29 times – another key indicator to success.  Seattle was not so fortunate in a SU road loss as favorite despite rushing for 171 yards on 29 carries, as big special teams plays in the return game helped the Rams to victory despite a 464-272 total yards deficit.

The Bengals ( 32/11 ), Bears ( 52/14 ), Raiders ( 56/19 ), Falcons ( 68/16 ), Chargers ( 69/16 ) and Patriots ( 63/15 ) all struggled to get their running game going and it’s important to pay attention to offensive line and defensive injuries that effect weekly match-ups and personnel losses.  Only New England was able to overcome a huge rushing disadvantage to win, but not cover, against the New York Jets ( well, it’s Geno Smith ).

Teams that had strong offensive showings and efficient yards per play (yppl) in Week 7 victories were the Colts ( 506 yards/6.5 yards per play ), Cowboys ( 423/7.1 ), Broncos ( 419/7.5 ), Dolphins ( 393/5.7 ), Ravens ( 371/6.0 ) and Packers ( 363/6.5 ).  The Saints ( 408/6.1 ) and Seahawks ( 464/6.8 ) were very efficient in defeat.  Inefficient offensive teams included the Bengals ( 135/2.5 ),  Raiders ( 220/4.6 ), Bears ( 224/4.4 ), Titans ( 236/4.8 ), Falcons ( 254/3.9 ), Browns ( 266/3.6 ) and Chargers ( 251/5.1 ).   The league average is approximately 5.4 yards-per-play.

Early Week 8 rushing projections with margin parameters appear to favor the Lions over Falcons ( London ), Chiefs over Seahawks, Jets over Bills, Texans over Titans, Ravens over Bengals, Eagles over Cardinals and Cowboys over Redskins ( Monday ).

We’ll review more NFL stats and information each week as we continue to evaluate the results, match-ups and work to become even more proficient in point spread prognosis.

Stay on Course…

@FairwayJay