NFL Inside the Numbers Week 7

Handicapping and Analyzing Stats – NFL Inside the Numbers by @FairwayJay

Throughout the NFL season, I review weekly box scores, stats, game recaps and more after watching many of the NFL games in my weekly NFL Inside the Numbers article. For over a decade, I have kept a proprietary database of statistical information and utilized relevant rushing numbers, statistical guidelines and situations to better assist me in sports investing and providing point spread winners. Every week during the NFL season I provide my thoughts and insight on my NFL Inside the Numbers column to assist you in your pursuit of profit. Also, listen to my NFL Podcast each week where I provide insight and analysis into the upcoming Sunday games.

NFL Inside the Numbers Week 7 Stats of Notes.

The Colts & QB Andrew Luck gave the Broncos their first loss in Week 7

Week 7 NFL Favorites went 9-6 straight-up (SU) and 8-7 ATS against the spread (ATS), and are now 73-34 SU and 55-49-2 ATS year to date.  I graded the Bears as a favorite and loser in week 7. Over/under totals were 9-6 and now 56-50 YTD.   I graded the Dolphins/Bills game an ‘over’ winner with totals showing 43.5 and more 44.  The Saints and Raiders had a bye week 7.

Betting and beating the NFL over the long-term involves an understanding of the match-ups, situations and stats, and how to apply them for success. Turnovers will always have an impact on NFL games and especially against the spread (ATS), as I’ve tracked the impact of 3 or more turnovers for over a decade along with a 2-turnover differential advantage or disadvantage.  After all, teams that are +3 or more in the turnover column in a game are a long-term 93% winning ATS situation.  The Rams (3-0) were this week’s big turnover differential loser, but four other teams were -2 in the turnover column and all lost SU/ATS – Dolphins, Titans, Broncos and Vikings. Teams that are +3 or more in the turnover column are now 15-0 SU and 14-1 ATS this season. Teams that are exactly +2 in the turnover column in a game are 19-7 ATS this season including 8-0 ATS the past two weeks.

Teams that had a meaningful rushing advantage over their opponent bounced back for a big week going 9-2 ATS in week 7.  For the season, teams with at least a 30 yard rushing advantage in a game are 48-24 ATS. We discuss our rushing guidelines throughout the season, but if you can correctly handicap this situation and advantage in a weekly NFL match-up and it plays out accordingly, you’re well on your way to cashing more tickets and point spread winners. For over a decade, teams that out-rush their opponent by at least 30 yards in a NFL game cover the point spread approx. 75% of the time. There has not been a season since 2000 when this has been below 70% on average.

Clients have paid me for over a decade for my expertise and ability to proficiently project point spread winners because I not only understand point-of-attack play and rushing guidelines used for success, but because it’s also important to understand situations and make adjustments to changes, personnel, match-ups, injuries, weather and more.

Teams that had strong offensive showings in total net yards and efficient yards per play (yppl) in victory were the Redskins (507/6.9), Chargers (443/6.6) and Bengals (429/8.1).  The NFL team average yards per play is approx. 5.4. Inefficient offensive teams in defeat included the Vikings (220/3.2), Browns (232/3.4), Cardinals (234/3.3) and Eagles (293/3.9).

Week 7 big ground gainers in rushing included the Redskins (209 rush yds/43 attempts – back-to-back weeks 200+ rush yds), Chargers (158/40), 49ers (153/41), NY Jets (148/40), Steelers (141/29) and Seahawks (135/32).  These teams went 6-0 SU/ATS.

The Vikings  (30 rush yds/14 attempts), Cardinals (30/18), Rams (63/21) and Broncos (64/20) struggled to get their running game going.   So too did the Falcons (18/18) and Bengals (57/18), but each pulled out wins with productive passing games despite just 53 and 44 plays for the game. While the game flow, situations and score can impact a team’s game plan and use of the running game,  it’s proven over and over, season after season that teams who fail to commit to the running game or lack consistency in the ability to run the ball and control the ball, clock and chains are more often on the losing side of the ledger, both SU and ATS.

Here are the ATS records of teams that fail to run the ball more than 20 times in a game and those teams than run the ball at least 30 times in a game.  Yards per rush is not as important as controlling the ball, clock and chains. Having a QB that can convert on third down helps, as does having an elite QB at any time, but review these running stats again and use them in your handicapping to see if you can determine which teams will have success running the ball and/or stopping the run each week and which teams will commit to controlling and running the ball.

Through week 7 games, teams that run the ball 20 times or less in a game are a combined 8-40 ATS this season.  Conversely, teams that run the ball at least 30 times per game are 49-12 ATS this season (not including games where both teams run the ball at least 30 times).

We’ll review more NFL Inside the Numbers stats and information each week as we continue to evaluate the results, match-ups and work to become even more proficient in point spread prognosis. Listen to my NFL Podcast posted early each week on Tuesday’s for more insight, analysis and sports betting information.

Stay on Course…
@FairwayJay

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