NFL Inside The Numbers Week 6

Handicapping and Analyzing Stats – NFL Inside the Numbers Week 6

Throughout the NFL season, I review weekly box scores, stats, game recaps and more after watching many of the NFL games. For over a decade, I have kept a proprietary database of statistical information and utilized relevant rushing numbers, statistical guidelines and situations to better assist me in sports investing and providing point spread winners.  Each week we analyze the information and try to position our picks for success based on match-up advantages, and the running game and/or ability to stop the run is another way to isolate NFL point spread winners.

Here are some Week 6 stats of note.

Week 6 NFL favorites went 11-3-1 SU and 8-7 ATS and are now 59-31 SU and 44-47 ATS this season.  Totals went 10-5 O/U and there were 726 points scored in 15 games for an average of 48.4 PPG. I graded the Patriots game as a small favorite after opening -3 and closing pk ’em at Buffalo.  I also graded the Dolphins ( +3.5 ) as a underdog winner for the most available line throughout the week until closing +1.5 game day in Miami’s 27-24 last-second loss vs. Green Bay.   Three totals went over in the closing minutes thanks to three pick-6 returns for touchdowns, and two of those provided miracle ATS winners for Cardinals and Bronco’s bettors.  Total and over/unders are now 50-41 this season with average scoring at 46.8 PPG.

Beating the NFL over the long-term involves an understanding of the match-ups, situations and stats, and how to apply them for success.  Good fortune in the turnover column helps too. After all, teams that are +3 or more in the turnover column in a game are a long-term 93% winning ATS situation.  This season, teams that are +3 or greater in the turnover column in a game are 22-0 SU and 21-1 after Miami ( +3.5 ) became the first team to cover ATS while suffering a 3-0 TO differential vs. Green Bay.  The Dolphins just missed the SU win allowing a TD in the closing seconds, and Washington was set to cover despite a 3-0 TO margin but a 4th TO/pick-6 in the closing seconds also sealed their fate.

Teams that had a meaningful rushing advantage over their opponent (at least 30 yards) went 7-2 ATS in Week 6 and are now 48-16 ( 75% this season – right at the historical average. We’ll discuss our rushing guidelines throughout the season, but if you can correctly handicap this situation and advantage in a weekly NFL match-up and it plays out accordingly, you’re well on your way to cashing more tickets and point spread winners. For over a decade, teams that out-rush their opponent by at least 30 yards in a NFL game cover the point spread approx. 75% of the time. There has not been a season since 2000 when this has been below 70% on average.

Clients have paid me for over a decade for my expertise and ability to proficiently project point spread winners because I not only understand point of attack play and rushing guidelines used for success, but because it’s also important to understand situations and make adjustments to changes, personnel, match-ups, injuries, weather and more.  This year we’ve struggled in our point-of-attack and overall analysis in identifying more point-spread winners, but with more data to digest along with match-up analysis and historical success picking point spread winners, I anticipate a solid turnaround and improvement in our point spread prognosis.

Week 6 big ground gainers in rushing included the Eagles ( 203 rush yards/36 carries ), Ravens ( 169/35 ), Cowboys ( 162/37 ), Browns ( 158/38 ) and the lone big rushing loser Bengals ( 193/31 ) in their 37-37 overtime tie.  These teams went 4-1 SU/ATS but note the Panthers also rushed for 147 yards on 34 carries to get the cover in the tie vs. Cincinnati.

The NY Jets ( 31/15 ), Falcons ( 42/13 ), Vikings ( 69/18 ), Bills ( 69/23 ), Redskins ( 72/17 ) and Seahawks ( 80/18 ) all struggled to get their running game going and it’s important to pay attention to offensive line and defensive injuries that effect weekly match-ups and personnel losses.  The Patriots ( 50/27 ) and Titans ( 70/24 ) also were less than productive running the ball but each were on the positive side of a 3 and 2 turnover differential – a greater than 85% indicator of point spread success.

Teams that had strong offensive showings and efficient yards per play (yppl) in Week 6 victories were the Ravens ( 475 yards/7.4 yards per play ), Bears ( 478/6.9 ), Colts ( 456/5.6 ), Eagles ( 448/6.3 ), 49ers ( 432/6.5 ), Chargers ( 423/6.1 ), Cowboys ( 401/5.7 ), Patriots ( 396/6.0 ) and Browns ( 368/6.6 ).  The Redskins ( 407/7.1 ) had a very productive day on offense, but again could not overcome a 4-0 turnover differential in their 30-20 loss at Arizona.   Inefficient offensive teams included the NY Jets ( 204/3.3 – again ), Vikings ( 212/3.4 ), Seahawks ( 206/4.3 ) and NY Giants ( 253/4.3 ).   The league average is approximately 5.4 yards-per-play.

Early Week 7 rushing projections with margin parameters appear to favor the Redskins over Titans, Browns over Jaguars, Ravens over Falcons, Bills over Vikings and Cowboys over Giants.  All those apparent rushing advantages are on the betting favorites.

We’ll review more NFL stats and information each week as we continue to evaluate the results, match-ups and work to become even more proficient in point spread prognosis.

Stay on Course…

@FairwayJay